t*****t
发帖数: 97 | 1 Text Replaced on 6/18/15
Had they done so, they would have learned from either gentleman one of the
ways they used the deflation/deflator term. Mr. Jastremski would sometimes
work out and bulk up — he is a slender guy and his goal was to get to 200
pounds. Mr. McNally is a big fellow and had the opposite goal: to lose
weight. “Deflate” was a term they used to refer to losing weight. One can
specifically see this use of the term in a Nov. 30, 2014 text from Mr.
McNally to Mr. Jastremski: “deflate... 阅读全帖 |
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s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 2 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: sundial (leap year), 信区: Stock
标 题: Deflation or Hyerinflation (ZT好文，兼评商品)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct 24 17:52:34 2008)
Is it deflation, stagflation, or hyperinflation, in the current global
economic crisis? That's the quadrillion dollar question investors must get right.
This article will answer that big question but it is also meant to be a sequel to
part one and part two of the serial articles talking about valuations of
physical and non-physical assets as well as cur |
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c*****s
发帖数: 16 | 3 都说Deflation要来，无论是投行的金融分析师还是各种指标。但是大家有没有切身体
会到呢？难道房产的降价和油价的下滑就是？那90年代初这两样都有发生，怎么没见教
科书里提到？到底哪些硬指标才能显示出Deflation正在发生？ |
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c*****r
发帖数: 8227 | 4 在Fed宣布QE II (lite)的今天，重温一下这篇讲话，或许
可以加深你对“直升机Ben"对抗通缩的手段与决心的理解。。。
30B a month too little? He can add more...
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm
Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke
Before the National Economists Club, Washington, D.C.
November 21, 2002
Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here
... ...
Conclusion
Sustained deflation can be highly destructive to a modern economy and should
be strongly resisted. Fortunately, for the foreseeable future, th |
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A*****a
发帖数: 52743 | 5 Wells: Brady was more likely than not generally aware of deflation
Goodell: Brady parcitpated in a scheme of deflation
Judge: It's a quantum leap from 'generally aware' to 'scheme' |
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d*o
发帖数: 108 | 6 I think many agree that China has a deflation problem, all prices are
dropping. But why can't the government keep printing money until we
see the deflation stops? I know it isn't that simple but someone can
enlighten me? |
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c*******k
发帖数: 554 | 7 瞧现在这样子, 应该是deflation.
俺跟BEM想法一致, 对中国的经济是有好处. |
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e****g
发帖数: 469 | 8 这个是我看过的最好的讨论，看完以后，我认为deflation可能更大，下面是一些关于
fed 的论点：
The Fed is a private business unable to give away money
The Fed would not give away money even if it could. Ultimately it would
destroy their own wealth and power.
The Fed can provide liquidity (loans) but not capital (money). However,
liquidity is a coward in the face of rising defaults.
The Fed can encourage but not force banks to lend or consumers of businesses
to borrow.
The Fed can at most control either interest rates or monetary printing |
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e****g
发帖数: 469 | 9 More quotes：
Here is something I wholeheartedly agree with Schiff about: "American[s]
have borrowed so much money that we can not afford to repay".
Debt that cannot be repaid will not be repaid by definition. It will be
defaulted on. That is the very essence of deflation. Rising foreclosures and
credit card delinquencies are already proof of concept.
Here is a second statement by Schiff that I wholeheartedly agree with: "
There will be wide-spread unemployment, and assets prices, such as stocks, |
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t*******h
发帖数: 30 | 10 or deflation first and then hyperinflation next year and beyond?
Can anyone who knows macro-economics shares his thoughts?
Its a kind of scary outside now. |
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s****i
发帖数: 2993 | 11 I think as the fed pumps in trillions of money, the chance
of having deflation is very low.
I'm planning on converting my bond funds to stable value
or money market. |
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c*****s
发帖数: 16 | 12 This may be a short term fluctuation, price can go back in a few months. It
is hard to say deflation is going on based on food price or clothes price,
because they are changing frequently. |
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l****n
发帖数: 6773 | 13 food, gas, utility, insurance, health care, wage and rent
if they rise, no deflation. Other prices either move back or the suppliers
will disappear |
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K****D
发帖数: 30533 | 14 ☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
thirtysth (三十好几) 于 (Mon Nov 24 14:41:20 2008) 提到:
or deflation first and then hyperinflation next year and beyond?
Can anyone who knows macro-economics shares his thoughts?
Its a kind of scary outside now.
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
badcompany (上网就是为了扯淡！) 于 (Mon Nov 24 14:58:16 2008) 提到:
why always think about extremes? in my opinion, neither, hehe
☆─────────────────────────────────────☆
thirtysth (三十好几) 于 (Mon Nov 24 15:01:16 20 |
|
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l******n
发帖数: 641 | 16 u can call now a deflation with gold over 900? |
|
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a***e
发帖数: 575 | 18 今天收到版主的Superbowl包子.点赞附加留言:
deflate the seahawks |
|
|
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A*****a
发帖数: 52743 | 21 Now they deflate themselves.
wahahaha |
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r***l
发帖数: 9084 | 22 无论拍子afc champ比赛有没有故意放气，最好的回应就是击败sb海鹰，按照美国人的
性格，sb之前即使是拍子的粉丝，面对cheater这顶大帽子，为拍子辩护底气都不足。
而sb胜利后，即使是拍子的hater都不好意思再拿deflate gate攻击拍子，毕竟sb比赛
的bowl肯定合格吧，堂哥和拍子赢的让人心服口服。 |
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l********e
发帖数: 2499 | 23 USC fired a student manager for deflating five game balls below regulation
levels for the USC-Oregon game last Saturday, the school announced late
Wednesday
Underinflated footballs typically travel at a slower speed than fully
inflated balls and are thought to be easier to catch and throw.
http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/ncf/story/_/id/8605756/usc-troja |
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l********e
发帖数: 2499 | 24 USC declared no player or coach had any part in a 20-year-old student
decision. OK then................
Pre-season #1, now trying to deflate game balls. |
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z***a
发帖数: 101 | 25 今天发现不能用手机看mitbbs了。
"您当前的浏览器不支持deflate压缩，请使用更新版本的浏览器。"
我的手机是gphone。怎么回事啊？这个升级搞什么名堂呀。还让不让人活了？ |
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z*********n
发帖数: 94654 | 26 hahahaha
其实mod_deflate对于老行肯定是好事情，节约上网费用
text file压缩比能达到80%
但是不能一股脑全deflate，需要注明不支持的咋办 |
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b*****o
发帖数: 3499 | 27 【 以下文字转载自 ebiz 讨论区 】
发信人: zuomai (拭者如风), 信区: ebiz
标 题: 您当前的浏览器不支持 deflate 压缩，请使用更新版本的浏览器
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Apr 29 19:44:34 2009), 站内
这咋整啊 |
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w****l
发帖数: 6122 | 28 想抄底的同学最好还是多存钱吧。
http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/254354/the_dismal_out
The Dismal Outlook for the US and Global Economy and the Financial Markets
Email PrintShare
Delicious Digg Facebook reddit Technorati Nouriel Roubini | Nov 11, 2008
Here is a below brief summary of many of the points that I have made for the
last few months on the outlook for the U.S. and global economy and for
financial markets:
The U.S. will experience its most severe recession since WWII, much worse
and longer and... 阅读全帖 |
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c******y
发帖数: 256 | 29 There was a second way that Mr. Jastremski and Mr. McNally used the term “
deflation” or “deflator” which the report disregards. The Wells
investigators had the May 9, 2014 “deflator”/espn text string in their
possession several weeks before their full day, four lawyer-staffed
interviews with each of Mr. McNally and Mr. Jastremski. They came to the
interviews with laptops, documentation and had obviously prepared
extensively for each interview. They never asked either of them about that
May 9 “d... 阅读全帖 |
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f**x
发帖数: 4325 | 30 Why Is Deflation Bad?
A number of readers have asked me to explain why deflation is a bad thing;
and the truth is that while I’ve alluded to the issue a number of times, I
’m not sure if I’ve ever laid out the whole case. So here goes.
There are actually three different reasons to worry about deflation, two on
the demand side and one on the supply side.
So first of all: when people expect falling prices, they become less willing
to spend, and in particular less willing to borrow. After all, when... 阅读全帖 |
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a****g
发帖数: 8131 | 31 A great article in this past weekend’s Washington Post highlighted many of
the major issues affecting the US housing market and most of those issues
point to lower house prices. In particular, the self-reinforcing psychology
of price deflation has already set in. And that means prices will continue
to fall.
While the government is doing its best to prop up the housing sector and
maintain credit growth, most common metrics suggest house prices are still
elevated. This artificial prop buys banks t... 阅读全帖 |
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y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 32 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: coldface (送你一朵红玫瑰), 信区: Stock
标 题: 当前股市及未来走向分析
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sat Jun 11 22:59:40 2011, 美东)
为庆祝版主上任，为大象申请板斧所激励，也写个小文，娱乐一下。就凭记忆写，有错处一定指出。
分析当前股市要从2009年3月6日那天说起。why? 因为那天非常特殊，DOW 从最高14000
点跌到6500点，跌幅超过50%。这种跌幅之前在美国股市一百多年的历史上只有两次，
1929年和1969年，2009年是第三次，正好40年一轮回，天意？巧合？
言归正传。从2009年3月6日至今，是一个两年多的大牛市，dow 几乎翻倍。在这两年里
，发生两次较为引人注目的回调，2009年夏，回调近9%，2010夏，回调近15%，其它小
波动小于5%，几乎可忽略。2011年夏这近6周回调大约7%。大家都在想，回调结束了？
还是一年高于一年，继续回调？
牛熊都怎么想呢？
现在坏消息这么多，低GDP，high unemployment, potential inflat... 阅读全帖 |
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k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 33 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-einhorn/fed-interest-rates_
A Jelly Donut is a yummy mid-afternoon energy boost.
Two Jelly Donuts are an indulgent breakfast.
Three Jelly Donuts may induce a tummy ache.
Six Jelly Donuts -- that's an eating disorder.
Twelve Jelly Donuts is fraternity pledge hazing.
My point is that you can have too much of a good thing and overdoses are
destructive. Chairman Bernanke is presently force-feeding us what seems like
the 36th Jelly Donut of easy money and wondering... 阅读全帖 |
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t*****t
发帖数: 97 | 34 http://sports.yahoo.com/news/roger-goodell-s-manipulation-of-to
Roger Goodell's manipulation of Tom Brady's testimony leaves NFL on slippery
slope
At this point it's fair to say the NFL was immediately convinced the New
England Patriots deflated footballs in the AFC championship game and then
worked backward with great diligence and, at times, great duplicity to
conclude it as true.
The NFL mostly failed, although that doesn't guarantee the Patriots are
innocent. New England very well might have... 阅读全帖 |
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w*******q
发帖数: 1764 | 35
Deflation主要是wage and asset deflation, Fed关心的是这个，至于你Walmart里面
付的价格Fed根本不care. 那是小
case, 美国的债务太多，如果asset不持续inflate的话，这些债务足以压垮美国，所以
Fed这么怕deflation. 日本是贸易出超
国，而且saving rate很高，它的deflation和美国可能面临的deflation症状和危害都
不一样，日本是工资，asset和价格都
降, 美国如果进了deflation spiral的话有可能是工资，asset降，但是价格涨. |
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n******1
发帖数: 3756 | 36 By Roxanne Jones
Qa
Why should they still be allowed to play in football's biggest game?
Editor's Note: Roxanne Jones is a founding editor of ESPN The Magazine and a
former vice president at ESPN. She is a national lecturer on sports,
entertainment and women's topics and a recipient of the 2010 Woman of the
Year award from Women in Sports and Events. She is the co-author of "Say It
Loud: An Illustrated History of the Black Athlete" and CEO of the Push
Marketing Group. The opinions expressed in t... 阅读全帖 |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 37 只有2.是make some sense的，当然也是显而易见的一个点。
简单来说说：bottom line on top: 低油价对经济是要造成很严重的后果的。
为什么？这个要结合当前的全球经济形势来看，当前各国经济面临的是通缩的问题，当
然现在还没到通缩，但是各国都很害怕通缩 - 现在各国通胀率都越来越小了 -
disinflation, 通胀率一直萎缩下去，就要成通缩了 - deflation.
低油价的影响对物价的下降是有很大作用的，直接的影响是汽油便宜了，运输成本降低
了，这样货物的价格也会降低了。加上石油工业的附加产品都变便宜了。这样一来，
deflation是指日可待了。
deflation来了之后，消费者的购买欲望就没有了 - 既然价格一降再降当然就持币观望
了，这样全社会的经济活动就要减低，商家东西卖不掉，厂家自然就会减产。公司就会
开始解雇。人们手里的钱少了，就更不会去购物了。这样就形成了恶性循环。
那么，各国对deflation有没有应对的措施呢？理论上有的 - 降息呀，可实际上呢？大
家都知道，哪还有降息的空间呀？
所以现在各国都要努力避免deflation的到来... 阅读全帖 |
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c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 38 只有2.是make some sense的，当然也是显而易见的一个点。
简单来说说：bottom line on top: 低油价对经济是要造成很严重的后果的。
为什么？这个要结合当前的全球经济形势来看，当前各国经济面临的是通缩的问题，当
然现在还没到通缩，但是各国都很害怕通缩 - 现在各国通胀率都越来越小了 -
disinflation, 通胀率一直萎缩下去，就要成通缩了 - deflation.
低油价的影响对物价的下降是有很大作用的，直接的影响是汽油便宜了，运输成本降低
了，这样货物的价格也会降低了。加上石油工业的附加产品都变便宜了。这样一来，
deflation是指日可待了。
deflation来了之后，消费者的购买欲望就没有了 - 既然价格一降再降当然就持币观望
了，这样全社会的经济活动就要减低，商家东西卖不掉，厂家自然就会减产。公司就会
开始解雇。人们手里的钱少了，就更不会去购物了。这样就形成了恶性循环。
那么，各国对deflation有没有应对的措施呢？理论上有的 - 降息呀，可实际上呢？大
家都知道，哪还有降息的空间呀？
所以现在各国都要努力避免deflation的到来... 阅读全帖 |
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L***n
发帖数: 6727 | 39 对不了解此人的兄弟,一点背景介绍,此人任Financial Times 的
associate editor and chief economics commentator,
自吹"widely considered to be one of the world's most
influential writers on economics"(见wiki), 典型的犹太人,
骨子里极端反华, 表面上道貌岸然, 纵观其对中国评论的历史记录, 即使
是貌似公正的为中国经济发展进言, 其隐藏的立场也无不是损害中国的利益
以维护西方白人的利益. 现在连这层遮羞布也不要了, 赤裸裸的宣传美国用
印纸钞票的办法来迫使人民币升职. 此文发表于 FT 网站, 显示其道德水准
之底下, 以基本接近海平面的海拔高度. 一言以蔽之, 其中心思想即是, 我
就是要发烂渣, 就是要耍赖来搞你. 现在QE已经成为美国迫使人民币升值之
基本武器, 未来中国压力会很大.
Why America is going to win the global currency battle
By Martin Wolf
Publ... 阅读全帖 |
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t*******h
发帖数: 2882 | 40 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LL18Df01.html
India's growth not all shine
By Kunal Kumar Kundu
BANGALORE - India's gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the second
quarter of its fiscal year surprised on the upside as year-on-year growth
was pegged at 8.9%. While the numbers are confidence boosting, it is
important to realize that there is a statistical element to the latest
number, while being very positive, rather than the data indicating a
substantial improvement in actual perform... 阅读全帖 |
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d********f
发帖数: 43471 | 41 你这黑的也太没水平了，高田气囊不是不能deflate, 如果真的是正面气囊不能deflate
那100%是安装问题，因为那个是外力（金属针尖戳破的）造成的deflation. 只有side
airbag是设计成不能deflate（自然放气），如果side airbag把人trap住，说明设计有
问题，或者车体形变太严重了 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 42 you still have not get it
gold is the hedge for deflation now
it is a hedge for inflation too, but silver is better
just look at the chart since late April
the market has been facing strong deflation pressure since then
take a look at how gold and silver behaved
dont assume the deflation will simply repeat 2008
yes, at that time, everything rushed to bonds
but this time, gold took its share as a hedge for deflation
as more people recognize it as money, not just a simple commodity
down the road, |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 43 we are in a global recession, China is part of it but likely the most
vulnerable one
the recession together with the global debt trouble are causing deflation,
which natually should bring everything down with it
in order to fight this natually occuring deflation, all central banks have
been running on their printing machines and flooding the market with their
paper currencies, this causes inflation across the board
the natural deflation and the artificial inflation have been fighting each
other,... 阅读全帖 |
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k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 44 we are in a global recession, China is part of it but likely the most
vulnerable one
the recession together with the global debt trouble are causing deflation,
which natually should bring everything down with it
in order to fight this natually occuring deflation, all central banks have
been running on their printing machines and flooding the market with their
paper currencies, this causes inflation across the board
the natural deflation and the artificial inflation have been fighting each
other,... 阅读全帖 |
|
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 45 股市为什么涨？有人会说是因为公司盈利，或技术创新，或什么什么的。但实际上，股
市上涨最重要的
原因，是因为通货膨胀。从个人角度想一想，你为什么投资股市而不是银行CD？因为你
担心如果投资
CD，在多年以后你的这点本金恐怕不能支付预期的消费支出。从宏观的角度想，如果一
个国家real
GDP增长长期维持在3%，而股市长期上涨8%，这不是很奇怪吗？其实从长期的、宏观的
角度看，股市上
涨超出 real GDP 或 real risk free rate 的部分，就是由于通货膨胀造成的。
这就是为什么现在人人都担心deflation，象日本那样的deflation。对于个人来说，
deflation
不是好事吗？价格更便宜不是吗？对。但对于投资者来说, deflation 意味着投资收益
降低。
但为什么投资收益降低是坏事呢？如果之前你能挣8%但是要面对通货膨胀，而现在你只
挣4%但没有通货
膨胀，有什么不好吗？其实没有什么不好。但是，放在当今社会，尤其是美国，就是不
好。因为美国是
一个高度leverage的经济，各种成本也已经很高。如果没有一个高的回报来serve debt
，这么高的 |
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c**i
发帖数: 6973 | 46 Your mention of GDP deflator suggests you are professional.
"GDP deflator" is defined in macroeconomics as (nominal GDP/real GDP) X 100%
. See section 1 Calculation
in
GDP deflator
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gdp_deflator
I learn economics as a hobby, on my own. But I am not sure whether you are
correct. See
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs). Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), US
Department of Labor, undated.
http://www.bls.gov/dolfaq/bls_ques6.htm
("Question: Is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) t... 阅读全帖 |
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g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 47 通货膨胀率有几个算法,区别非常大.一般容易算累计值的是GDP deflator,这个一般比
CPI高不少.CPI是一般各国政府常用的通胀指标(GDP deflator从来不专门发布),但是因
为各种商品的权重会变,所以算累计值没有太大意义.
按中国政府公布数据,2011年实际GDP是1978年的22.5倍,名义GDP是129倍,那么GDP
deflator是5.75倍.
美国政府同期的数据,实际GDP为2.34倍,名义GDP为6.57倍,通货膨胀为2.8倍 |
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x*****o
发帖数: 2505 | 48 去沙滩要先放气，这是常识嘛。
贴一片Foreser 车主的文章：
http://www.naturephotographers.net/articles0000/je0607-1.html
On the Beach in a Forester
Text and photography copyright © Jim Erhardt. All rights reserved.
Note - the thumbnails below are links to larger images.
No doubt, Subaru vehicles offer tremendous versatility and their AWD systems
remain among the best available today. It should therefore come as no
surprise that when properly equipped and driven, many Subaru models handle
deep, soft sand quite compe... 阅读全帖 |
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K******l
发帖数: 39 | 49 that deflation will be a new currency with gold standard, then deflation.
Now, if we want to go back to gold standard, dollar has to go deeply down to
let gold skyrocket.
And actually Japan is not deflation, It exports inflation. carry-trade based
on JPY contributes a lot to commodities bull and financial derivative bull.
Now it collapses.
People criticize Greenspan for his low interest rate. Ben "cures" this by
doing exactly the same mistake Greenspan did.Lower interest rate, roaring M0
.
If US |
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G******t
发帖数: 1782 | 50 http://www.cnbc.com/id/31526815/page/3/
BECKY: When we sat down with you here last year, you said inflation was a
very big worry for you. What do you see today? Do you worry about
inflation or deflation?
BUFFETT: Well, I don't worry about deflation at all. We won't see
deflation in any significant amount in your lifetime, which is more relevant
than my lifetime. We've taken action in fighting the economic war that we
face that certainly sows the seeds of substantial inflation down the road |
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