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g***t
发帖数: 1279 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Chinook 俱乐部 】
发信人: chinook (Base Loaded), 信区: Chinook
标 题: Monthly Pick thread
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Nov 2 02:22:16 2011, 美东)
几天不灌，大家受精了，lol。
出来了开这个thread算个见面礼，过些日子礼品臭了大家别怪。今天读季报读的高兴，
就胡吹个pick。以后不担保每月都有pick。
2011.11 pick
===
RDN
===
start date: 11/1/11
start price: $2.55
Price target:
=============
6 month price goal: $5
2 year price goal: $14
type:
=====
small cap with high return and high risk, so no high stake please
Worst case:
==========
risk-to-capital ratio may get to 25 before this number getting better which
will prevent them from writing new policies. (refer to PMI). Which means its
price can get cut to half over the night.
Why it is good:
===============
Today's earning report is extremely promising. It shows improvment in each
sector except for risk-to-capital ratio.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Radian-Reports-Third-Quarter-bw-9
Other risks:
============
1. while RDN is the strongest in this sector per latest earning report,
other player's failure may drag down RDN as well
2. new recession/worse house market
Disclaimer:
===========
I have been a hoder of RDN/MTG for a while and looking for long term return,
as well as speculate on short term big price swings. | g***t
发帖数: 1279 | 2 还是小心点好。这个有可能步pmi的后尘的。不能买很多。 | k****n
发帖数: 1334 | 3 very high risk
【在 g***t 的大作中提到】
: 还是小心点好。这个有可能步pmi的后尘的。不能买很多。
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