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发帖数: 1960 | 1 http://seekingalpha.com/article/287381-the-two-very-best-biotec
The market correction has been a gift.
After combing through low-flyer biotechs for over one year, I am convinced
that the two very best biotechs under $3/share are: BioSante Pharmaceuticals
(BPAX) and Antares Pharma (AIS). If I was pressed to add a third stock to
my list, it would be AEterna Zentares (AEZS), but for now I will stick with
only two. The basis for my researched conclusion is as follows:
BioSante
BioSante recently gave investors a taste of the good things to come when it
hit a $4.02/share high on 17 July 2011. This demonstrated the explosive
potential behind the company's vision to focus on female sexual health. As
keen investors know, the phase 3 LibiGel studies are closing in on the home
stretch in 2012 which has included very promising safety data. With respect
to LibiGel alone, I foresee the potential for a megalithic return. This
recent peak suggests the market isn't going to wait until next year before
the stock price goes up.
Furthermore, I like the flamboyant energy and passion of BioSante's CEO
Simes. His communication style embodies optimism backed up by the company's
focused pipeline. I like that he compares LibiGel with Viagra and intuitive
insight into the potential market. I agree with Simes - I think the
potential female dysfunction market is worth all of $2B plus more. I also
expect LibiGel's phase 3 clinical studies will ultimately result in FDA
approval. The safety data alone gives LibiGel a clear edge as we await next
year's results. So getting into BioSante now, represents a whopping
opportunity to earn triple-digit gains.
Meanwhile, the recent fund-raising of $48M at $3/share represents how under-
valued BioSante currently is. There is every reason to think $3/share will
be an August base from which the share price will rise. Should Bio-T-Gel
move forward under TEVA (TEVA) at the 14 November PDUFA date with the FDA,
that will only bring a new wave of deep pocket investors. With daily volume
on average over 3M shares, one can expect volatility and wild price swings
will come as they did for Dendreon (DNDN). Therefore, expect higher highs
and lower lows.
Finally, I applaud CEO Simes for floating his muse that BioSante could be
sold or that a lucrative partnership for LibiGel might emerge. The market
likes a winner. CEO Simes knows he's in the driver's seat and he isn't
afraid to say it. I like his chutzpah.
Why is BioSante among the two best under $3/share? In one word: LibiGel. The
rest is gravy.
Antares
My researched conclusion is that Antares is significantly under-valued at $2
.10/share (Friday close) primarily for its business model that is steadily
moving towards net positive. I only need to point to the company's revenue
generation ($3.543M - 30 June 2011; $3.570M - 31 March 2011; $3.282M - 31
December 2010; and $3.122M - 30 September 2010) with an average negative net
loss of $1.466M/Q over the last twelve months. Going forward, how well the
company has done is captured in the following statement from their 10-K (see
page 48):
"In 2010, the net loss decreased by $4,199,554 to $6,091,198 from $10,290,
752 in 2009 primarily as a result of an increase in product gross profit of
$1,281,356, licensing and development gross profit of $1,634,017, and
royalties of $1,458,887."
"In 2009, the net loss decreased by $2,399,701 to $10,290,752 from $12,690,
453 in 2008 primarily as a result of an increase in gross profit of $530,102
and decreases in general and administrative expenses of $1,436,641 and
sales marketing and business development expenses of $573,569."
Given the partnerships cited thereafter, Antares's management record of
revenue generation suggests that they will close and surpass their average $
1,466M/Q net loss gap for four specific reasons (in no particular order):
LibiGel in partnership with BioSante
Anturol in partnership with Watson
Additional growth in marketed products
VIBEX, VIBEX 2 (near-term) in partnership with Ferring/TEVA and VIBEX MTX (
long-term)
Clearly Antares is gaining ground. For example, Antares recently announced
an exclusive licensing partnership with Watson (WPI) for its Anturol gel.
Anturol is currently under review by the FDA for overactive bladder. Landing
Watson demonstrates management strength and a documented history of signing
multiple revenue-generating partnerships with big pharma. (Click here for
Antares's impressive collaboration history, which includes/has included
Ferring, TEVA, JCR, Jazz (JAZZ), Dr. Reddy's (RDY), Population Council, and
BioSante). These names alone demonstrate big pharma's confidence in Antares
management and Antares products.
Antares is a "sleeper-stock". All Antares needs is wider market visibility
and its share price should head north. Antares has a: (1) healthy balance
sheet with ample cash and (2) lucrative partnerships in motion validating a
business model for a net positive future. For $2.10/share, Antares is a well
-managed company that speaks volumes for where CEO Wotton is leading his
firm. I am very bullish about this company because their collaborations with
BioSante, TEVA, and now Watson is a triple-head revenue winner. | p********e
发帖数: 1960 | 2 BPAX being pumped again...
in addition to BPAX and AIS, our old friend AEZS is mentioned as well. | L*******B
发帖数: 837 | 3 BPAX貌似涨啊涨的这两天，看它讨厌不知道为毛。 | f****X
发帖数: 64 | 4 Efficacy top-line data readout: Expect in October or November 2011
$BPAX p3 efficacy positive的可能性很大，女用伟哥也很吸引媒体的关注。但是$
BPAX管理层太差，两年发行了5 五次新股，timeline老是落后于公司的guidance。 |
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