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y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 1 大家说说6月底QE2结束后，股市债市怎么走？
美国国会或授权提上限 扫清QE3障碍
来源：东方财富网
2011年05月21日18:57
一旦推出对全球经济杀伤力巨大
这不是假设：美国联邦政府每开支1美元，其中32美分是靠举外债得来的。而中国
，差不多要贡献四分之一。5月16日，14.29万亿美元国债的上限已经触及。
莫慌!此次主力仍然在假摔? 套牢的股票很可能有救了! 3月股市很可能发生巨变?
拉锯战背后暗藏的资金动向!
美国比日本“胆子小”一点，国债上限自觉维持在GDP的100%左右。即便这样，国
债天花板那层薄薄的板一捅就破。其实之前就有预兆，标准普尔调低了美国国债的展望
评级，由“稳定”降至“负面”。
原先过惯了“透支消费”的好日子，一下子信用卡刷爆，额度用光光，这可急坏了
美国政府的“大管家”、美国财长盖特纳。他四处吹风，希望国会尽快通过提高国债上
限的决定。一句话，请各位父老把国家信用卡的透支额度再提高一点，这已经是国会的
拿手好戏从2000年以来就已经上调了十次，最近一次是在2010年2月。
国会目前掌控在共和党手中。平时在这个问题上还算默契的民主、共和两党，临近
大选年这个微妙的时间窗口，又有一场“太极云手”大戏好看，一如在2011年财政预算
上的扯皮。
这时，掌管着印钞机的关键人物美联储的态度就非常引人关注。但联邦储备委员会
已经放话，这次咱们得把关紧点门守得严点，不准备“哗哗”开动印钞机来购买、消化
美国国债。美联储主席伯南克面色凝重的说话腔调，像极电影《黑客帝国》中的终级“
BOSS”建筑师老头，称将在今年6月底停止购买美国国债。此言一出，受伤的不光是尼
欧，等待、观望量化宽松三期的市场人士既感失望，又觉意外，倒是美元指数立马大涨。
美联储何时推出QE3？QE1、QE2释放出的2.3万亿美元流动性，让全球经济吃尽苦头
。本期《钱经》特别报道“美债江湖告急”将通过抽丝剥茧的采访、观点独到的特约评
论员文章，帮你看穿美联储“真实的谎言”。 | y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 2 What Happens After QE2 Ends?
The Fed’s highly controversial QE2 program is scheduled to end in June
By Ben Baden
Posted: March 15, 2011
http://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/mutual-funds/art
The Federal Reserve's second round of quantitative easing, which began in
November and is commonly referred to as QE2, is slated to end in June.
Experts expect the Fed to finish the program, in which it pledged to buy $
600 billion worth of treasury bonds to keep interest rates low and help spur
lending and economic growth. There has been much speculation about what
will happen in the markets—stock, bond, as well as commodities—when the
Fed ends QE2 and the economy is left to stand on its own without any
stimulus.
Click here to find out more!
Proponents say the economy is better off because of the program, while
inflation hawks say it has propped up asset prices across the board. They
caution that markets are in for a reckoning after the Fed program winds down
. Here are a few possible scenarios for the markets after QE2 ends:
[See top-rated funds by category ranked by U.S. News Score.]
Bond yields continue to rise. Even with QE2 in place, treasury yields have
slowly moved higher. On Nov. 4, 2010, the day of the Fed's announcement, the
10-year treasury yield stood at 2.5 percent. Today, it yields about 3.4
percent. Bond guru Bill Gross, who manages the world's largest mutual fund,
PIMCO Total Return, is forecasting a spike in treasury yields. Gross has
sold off all of the T-bills in his flagship fund because of his concerns
about the end of QE2. In his investment outlook for March, Gross writes, "
Bond yields and stock prices are resting on an artificial foundation of QE
II credit." He adds: "Who will buy [t]reasuries when the Fed doesn't?" The
Fed has been buying an average of about $75 billion in bonds a month since
it instituted the program in November. Critics say that by buying large
amounts of bonds, the Fed has kept rates artificially low. Gross estimates
the 10-year treasury yield is about 1.5 percent lower than it should be when
viewed in historical context, and when compared with expected nominal GDP
growth of 5 percent.
Some experts are less concerned about a dramatic run-up in treasury rates.
After the Fed exits, "you wouldn't have a big buyer, but it's still not the
same as them selling them," says Stacey Schreft, director of investment
strategy for The Mutual Fund Store. "You could see a small jump [in yields].
" The Fed also has the option to reinvest proceeds from its purchases, which
means it may not completely exit the market. Whether the Fed continues to
reinvest or slowly lets the holdings roll off its balance sheet will be
something to watch in the coming months.
Stocks could take a hit. The S&P 500 has risen about 6 percent since the Fed
launched QE2. "Financial assets have become much more valuable when
interest rates are so low," says Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund,
which primarily invests in companies involved in the mining and production
of metals like gold, silver, and platinum. "When interest rates are high,
they might not be so valuable."
[See Why Big U.S. Stocks Look Like a Good Bet.]
How the wind-down is perceived by investors is also important. "If the
market takes it as a sign of confidence in the economy, that's a good sign,"
says Bob Gelfond, CEO of MQS Asset Management. "On the other hand, if [
investors are] worried that yields are now going to start heading up, that
could be a negative for the stock market." Higher yields are generally
associated with an economic recovery, but a quick jump could impact stocks
negatively.
Still, others contend that the market has already priced in the effect of
the end of QE2 and stocks are bound for higher gains. "My guess is that
stocks will be higher after June by the end of the year than they are today,
" says Brian Gendreau, market strategist with Financial Network. But he
warns that the stock market never moves in a straight line and that there
are always bumps along the way.
Rally in commodities slows. Commodities have also benefited during the Fed's
easing program. Gold still trades around $1,400 per ounce, and silver is
hovering around historic highs of about $35 per ounce. Oil is now trading
around $100, which some attribute to unrest in the Middle East. Winmill
expects gold's run to continue, but he's concerned that silver's streak may
end. That's because it's primarily used for industrial purposes, and higher
interest rates could stunt economic growth, Winmill says.
[See What's Next for Gold?]
Soaring food prices have become a concern in emerging markets like China,
India, and Brazil. Critics place some of the blame for higher food prices on
the Fed's program, and they're worried that the end of QE2 may not be
enough to stem rising inflation abroad. If the Fed decides to end its easing
programs, one thing will remain the same: The Fed funds rate is still set
at virtually zero, where it's been since December 2008. "[Fed] policy is
still going to be easy, and that's probably not going to be helpful for the
dollar, and it's probably not going to put a cap on commodity prices, unless
the world economy starts having a downturn," Gelfond says. The dollar
remains the world's reserve currency—meaning that many commodities
throughout the world are priced in dollars—and a weak dollar has effects
throughout the world, Gelfond says. He says a stronger dollar could help
slow some inflationary pressures throughout the world.
Twitter: @benbaden | y*****l
发帖数: 5997 | 3 http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/19/us-poll-qe-idUSTRE74I
End of Fed's QE2 to hurt stocks, bonds
By Walter Brandimarte
NEW YORK | Thu May 19, 2011 11:38am EDT
(Reuters) - Investors betting on a rise in stocks, bonds and commodities
should prepare for a loud sucking sound in their portfolios next month when
the Federal Reserve pulls the plug on its $600 billion stimulus program.
Stocks, bonds, gold and the euro are expected to fall in the three months
after the end of the Fed's second massive bond buying operation, also known
as quantitative easing, or QE2, a Reuters poll of 64 analysts and fund
managers found on Thursday.
Investors and traders approach the end of QE2 with a sense of trepidation,
worried that with the Fed no longer supporting the market, investments that
have been profitable for the last nine months will plummet and rattle
confidence in the shaky economic recovery.
The survey showed investors overwhelmingly thought government bonds would
suffer from the Fed's exit, with 40 of 64 respondents saying the end of
quantitative easing would drive up yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds.
Although equities and commodities prices have already been declining in
anticipation, the end of QE2 will likely leave markets more vulnerable to
issues that investors overlooked as long as the Fed was printing money at a
record pace.
Concerns about the European debt crisis, the Chinese economic slowdown and
the struggling U.S. jobs market, already gnawing away at investor confidence
, may now take a big bite out of sentiment across a range of markets.
"The psychological impact of QE2 is more important than the action itself,"
said Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede in
Philadelphia, with $19.8 billion under management.
"QE2 is a statement that the Fed will act as a backstop," he added.
Volatility is also poised to grow as declining global liquidity makes
investors less willing to take on risk at any price. Out of 63 respondents,
36 said markets will become more volatile when QE2 ends.
The dollar, on the other hand, should gain as the Fed stops lowering its
value by printing money. Out of the 64 participants, 38 expect the greenback
to strengthen versus the euro, while 14 see no impact.
Still, the exchange rate between the two currencies will mostly depend on
broader developments in the euro zone and the United States, both struggling
to manage mountains of debt after the global financial crisis.
COMMODITIES, STOCKS TO SUFFER
At least half of the respondents expect oil and gold prices to fall further
in the third quarter, hurt by a stronger dollar that will make them more
expensive to non-U.S. investors.
Nearly half of participants also expect U.S. and emerging markets stocks to
fall, as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 index and the MSCI Emerging
Market stock index.
"Equity indexes, like other tangible assets, were the beneficiaries of QE,"
said Ray Humphrey, who helps manage $159.6 billion at Hartford Investment
Management Co.
"This is illusory, however, as much of the rise in equity and commodity
prices can be attributed to measuring the value of these asset classes in a
currency that is being devalued."
Despite the expected weakness in financial markets, most analysts were
fairly confident the U.S. economy remains on a recovery path that will allow
policymakers to reduce the monetary stimulus next month.
The probability of a third round of quantitative easing policies was only 10
percent, according to the median forecast from 59 responses.
The Federal Reserve remains caught between the need for more immediate
economic support and the risk of long-term inflation, but analysts say the
balance is beginning to shift toward the longer-term issue.
"The economy is slowing but I don't think there is much risk of a double-dip
. The Fed will have little urgency there (for a QE3)," said Milton Ezrati,
market strategist at Lord Abbett Co in Jersey City, New Jersey.
But David Joy at Boston-based Columbia Management, prefers to leave the door
open for QE3.
"If you saw a slowdown over the summer months, especially one that was
accompanied by a meaningful slowdown in the money supply, I think QE3 is a
viable policy option."
(Additional reporting by Richard Leong, Ellen Freilich, Herbert Lash,
Caroline Valetkevitch, Chris Reese; additional polling by the Bangalore
Polling Unit; editing by Ross Finley) |
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