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发帖数: 8131 | 1 Japanese Manufacturers Were Optimistic for a Fifth Quarter, Survey Shows
Japan’s largest manufacturers were optimistic for a fifth consecutive
quarter, even as the yen’s advance threatened profits from overseas.
Sentiment among manufacturers with more than 1 billion yen ($12 million) in
capital was 13.3 points this quarter compared with a reading of 10 three
months ago, a government report showed in Tokyo today. A number greater than
zero means optimists outnumber pessimists.
The recovery in earnings of exporters such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda
Motor Co. is looking more fragile as signs of cooler global growth push up
the yen’s exchange rate. Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said this
week he is “well aware” that the currency is affecting exports and
signaled that policy makers are ready to implement further stimulus if
needed.
“The current state of business sentiment is not that bad as corporate
profits are recovering,” Soichi Okuda, chief economist at Sumitomo Research
Institute in Tokyo, said before the report. “But companies are clearly
becoming more cautious of the outlook for the economy because of the yen’s
surge.”
Today’s report, conducted jointly by the Cabinet Office and Ministry of
Finance, offers a hint of the outcome of the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey,
the nation’s most closely watched gauge of corporate confidence, due Sept.
29.
The Tankan measures the overall level of sentiment while today’s survey
examines the degree of change in business conditions from the previous
quarter.
Overseas Earnings
A stronger yen reduces earnings made abroad when repatriated into local
currency. Every one-yen increase against the dollar reduces Toyota Motor
Corp.’s annual operating profit by 30 billion yen and by 16 billion yen at
Honda Motor Co., according to the companies.
The Renault SA-Nissan Motor Co. alliance is among manufacturers choosing to
shift production overseas in response to the appreciating yen. Chief
Executive Officer Carlos Ghosn said last month that the alliance will
produce more in South Korea and reduce its reliance on Japan.
Increasing uncertainty risks cutting short the country’s rebound as firms
hold back on their investment and hiring plans, according to economist
Yoshimasa Maruyama.
“Without more employment and capital spending, the rebound can’t sustain
itself,” Maruyama, a senior economist in Tokyo at Itochu Corp., said before
the report in Tokyo. “If the yen keeps strengthening like this, it’s
possible that exports will stumble, in which case Japan could slump back
into a recession.”
Fresh Stimulus
The Bank of Japan last week bolstered a credit program and Prime Minister
Naoto Kan pledged fresh stimulus to help protect the economy. Shirakawa said
on Sept. 7 that the bank will take policy action “in a timely and
appropriate manner if determined necessary.”
Economists predict the government will likely revise up its estimate of the
second-quarter economic growth to be released tomorrow, after a report last
week showed that companies cut spending at the slowest pace since 2007.
Gross domestic product expanded 1.5 percent on an annualized basis last
quarter, compared with a preliminary reading of 0.4 percent, according to
the median forecast of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. |
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