T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | | i***h
发帖数: 12655 | 2 呵呵, 我也是这么看
发信人: ilvch (From here to eternity), 信区: Stockcafeteria
标 题: 这段时间, 好象是纳指在领导大盘
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct 7 12:53:51 2011, 美东)
纳指道指背离的时候, 象今天早上,
都是最后跟纳指走 | i***h
发帖数: 12655 | 3 有一个办法, pair trading(?)不过我从来没有搞过
买纳指option
卖道指option | m*****u
发帖数: 189 | 4 应该已经有变化了
tech明显最近很差，大盘还很挺
【在 i***h 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵, 我也是这么看
: 发信人: ilvch (From here to eternity), 信区: Stockcafeteria
: 标 题: 这段时间, 好象是纳指在领导大盘
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Oct 7 12:53:51 2011, 美东)
: 纳指道指背离的时候, 象今天早上,
: 都是最后跟纳指走
| T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | 5 NDX上面不远毕竟是2400一个浩大顶部区间
不是那么容易破的
【在 m*****u 的大作中提到】
: 应该已经有变化了
: tech明显最近很差，大盘还很挺
| T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | | i***h
发帖数: 12655 | | T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | 8 这正反映市场弱啊
【在 i***h 的大作中提到】
: 这两个星期NDX已经不是了
| T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | | z****e
发帖数: 1384 | 10 MM主要拉住道指
【在 T*********s 的大作中提到】
: 带头突破带头破位
: 今天又带头新低
| | | T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | 11 今天OE
可能没啥大的波动？
【在 z****e 的大作中提到】
: MM主要拉住道指
| T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | 12 DJI/SP好像是个十字星
可领头羊NDX新低了
下周大家怎么看 | z****e
发帖数: 1384 | 13 我觉得要下跌
NDX，SPX相对DJI都比较弱，这两天都是
【在 T*********s 的大作中提到】
: DJI/SP好像是个十字星
: 可领头羊NDX新低了
: 下周大家怎么看
| X*****s
发帖数: 2767 | 14 NDX已经不是领头羊了，这是Mark Hulbert的分析，
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-nasdaq-weakness-is-tellin
What Nasdaq weakness is telling us
In Thursday’s trading, for example, the Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.60% fell
nearly twice as much as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.22% — 2.
0% vs. 1.1%. It is even further behind for the month to date, having lost 3.
6%, in contrast to the Dow’s 1.5% loss.
On the theory that the Nasdaq is a leading indicator of the broad market,
these data points paint a worrisome picture indeed.
But is that theory correct? I’m not so sure.
Consider what I found upon analyzing Nasdaq relative strength back to the
creation of the Composite index in the early 1970s. Regardless of whether
that relative strength was measured over as short as a couple of weeks or as
long as several months, it was for the most part not correlated with
subsequent market returns.
Click to Play
Could the Nasdaq Drag Down the Broader Market?
There's a widespread feeling that the Nasdaq Composite Index is a leading
indicator, according to MarketWatch's Mark Hulbert, yet he says that in
recent years it hasn't been functioning as such. Laura Mandaro reports. (
Image: Getty Images)
At the 95% confidence level that statisticians typically use to determine if
something is genuine, the only pattern that I found in the data was when
relative strength over the trailing four weeks was correlated to broad
market performance over the subsequent four weeks. But even here there was
not much to write home about.
That’s because this apparently robust pattern was the result of a strong
correlation in the 1970s and 1980s. Over the period since 1990, in contrast,
four-week relative strength has been more or less randomly related to
subsequent market returns.
In other words, Nasdaq relative strength used to be a decent leading
indicator. But not over the last two decades.
Why did it stop working? I suspect that the Nasdaq Composite in recent years
has come to be particularly dominated by just a handful of companies. The
benchmark is a cap-weighted index, after all, which means that a stock’s
weight in the index is a function of its market cap. Currently, for example,
just 10 companies account for nearly 36% of the index — firms such as
Apple AAPL +0.02% , Microsoft MSFT +0.20% , Oracle ORCL -0.71% , and
Google GOOG +0.04% .
The performance of these stocks in recent years has been less a function of
the overall economy than of unique stories that could be told about each of
them in particular.
I don’t have the comparable data for the 1970s and 1980s, but my hunch is
that the Nasdaq market was then less dominated by just a handful of
companies. If so, then its performance during those decades would have been
a better proxy for secondary stocks than it is today.
The bottom line? There are plenty of things to worry about these days, but
Nasdaq relative weakness is probably not one of them. | T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | 15 我的意思是市场情绪领头羊
fell
2.
3.
【在 X*****s 的大作中提到】
: NDX已经不是领头羊了，这是Mark Hulbert的分析，
: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-nasdaq-weakness-is-tellin
: What Nasdaq weakness is telling us
: In Thursday’s trading, for example, the Nasdaq Composite COMP -0.60% fell
: nearly twice as much as the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA +0.22% — 2.
: 0% vs. 1.1%. It is even further behind for the month to date, having lost 3.
: 6%, in contrast to the Dow’s 1.5% loss.
: On the theory that the Nasdaq is a leading indicator of the broad market,
: these data points paint a worrisome picture indeed.
: But is that theory correct? I’m not so sure.
| i*****1
发帖数: 670 | 16 hehe
【在 T*********s 的大作中提到】
: 我的意思是市场情绪领头羊
:
: fell
: 2.
: 3.
| T*********s
发帖数: 17839 | |
|
