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d*2
发帖数: 2053 | 1 http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/15/news/economy/fed_minutes_econom
Bad news and good news from the Fed
The central bank said unemployment could hit 10% this year, but also said
the economic decline could soon end and raised its growth forecast for 2010.
Last Updated: July 15, 2009: 3:56 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The unemployment rate could top 10% later this
year, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday, but the central bank also said it
believes the end of the recession could be in sight.
These forecasts were included in the minutes of the central bank's June 24
meeting. At that meeting the Fed left its key interest rate near zero
percent, but said there were signs of a recovery in some sectors, including
the financial markets.
According to the minutes, members of the Fed's rate-setting committee
generally agreed that "the decline in [economic] activity could cease before
long."
The current recession, which started in December 2007, is the longest
downturn in the U.S. economy since the end of World War II.
Fed policymakers now believe that the unemployment rate will rise to between
9.8% and 10.1% in 2009 before declining modestly next year. The Fed had
forecast in April that unemployment would top out in a range of 9.2% to 9.6%
this year, but the rate reached 9.5% in June.
The Fed also issued a slightly more optimistic forecast for the economy. The
Fed said the nation's gross domestic product, the broadest measure of
economic activity, should decline by between 1% and 1.5% in 2009, compared
to an earlier forecast of a drop of between 1.3% to 2%.
Policymakers also raised their forecast for GDP growth in 2010 and 2011,
calling for growth of between 2.1% and 3.3% next year and growth of 3.8% to
4.6% the following year.
The Fed said in its forecast that it expected a "sluggish" recovery in the
second half of this year, and that problems in the credit markets would
allow for only gradual improvement in the economy next year.
The central bank also said most of its members believe it could take as long
as five or six years for the economy to achieve a sustainable growth rate
and for desired levels of unemployment and inflation to meet the central
bank's objectives.
Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research, said the Fed
minutes showed that the central bank is still concerned about the state of
the economy and any possible recovery.
He pointed out that even as the Fed talked of signs of a possible turnaround
, it warned that the economy is "still quite weak and vulnerable to further
adverse shocks." And he said some of those shocks, including rising job
losses and the threat of bankruptcy at leading small business lender CIT
Group (CIT, Fortune 500), still loom.
"I don't think the Fed is about to hang the 'Mission accomplished' sign," he
said.
Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist at Global Insight, agreed that
the Fed is still very worried about the economy. He said the Fed is likely
to keep rates low and maintain various programs designed to spur spending
and lending for an extended period of time.
Bethune noted that the Fed is still expecting the unemployment rate to be in
the 8.4% to 8.8% in 2011, well above the expected longer-term unemployment
rate of 4.8% to 5%.
"There seems to be a Grand Canyon in between those two numbers," he said.
But David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's, said that it's also
clear that the central bank is less worried now than it was at its April
meeting.
"They've shifted to a more neutral stance from a downbeat one," he said. "
That's an important change."
First Published: July 15, 2009: 2:24 PM ET | h*******s
发帖数: 3932 | 2 It's all good news. Economy is improving, and unemployment rate won't go
higher. So we can only get better from here.
2010.
it
【在 d*2 的大作中提到】
: http://money.cnn.com/2009/07/15/news/economy/fed_minutes_econom
: Bad news and good news from the Fed
: The central bank said unemployment could hit 10% this year, but also said
: the economic decline could soon end and raised its growth forecast for 2010.
: Last Updated: July 15, 2009: 3:56 PM ET
: NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The unemployment rate could top 10% later this
: year, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday, but the central bank also said it
: believes the end of the recession could be in sight.
: These forecasts were included in the minutes of the central bank's June 24
: meeting. At that meeting the Fed left its key interest rate near zero
| I*****e
发帖数: 7085 | 3 really??
【在 h*******s 的大作中提到】
: It's all good news. Economy is improving, and unemployment rate won't go
: higher. So we can only get better from here.
:
: 2010.
: it
| h*******s
发帖数: 3932 | 4 you think it will shoot up to 20%? then war will come.
【在 I*****e 的大作中提到】
: really??
| b*******r
发帖数: 167 | 5 15%？Here 11.2% already.
【在 h*******s 的大作中提到】
: you think it will shoot up to 20%? then war will come.
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