c****g
发帖数: 37081 | 1 这年头，TB干点啥米犹都关注上了。十年前，甚至五年前，这是不可想象的；特别还是
在金融领域。米犹能听懂的语言是实力，TB要靠实力去挣话语权。木秀于林风必摧之。
TB现在有点实力还不足够强，只有够强了，米犹才有可能跟TB谈。在这之前，被穿小鞋
是不可避免的。
On Tuesday global stock markets got up on the wrong side of the bed thanks
to news from an unexpected source: the People's Bank of China. The nation's
central bank, analogous to the Federal Reserve in the U.S., announced it
would raise rates on one-year loans and deposits by .25 percent, or 25 basis
points.
Why is the People's Bank of China raising interest rates?
Central banks raise interest rates when they are concerned about inflation,
or if they are worried that credit or the economy at large is expanding at
an unsustainable pace. Higher interest rates make money more expensive, and
thus should cut down on borrowing activity. China's economy is growing very
rapidly, at a 10.3 percent annual rate in the most recent quarter, and
inflation is running above the official target of three percent. For a
country that has to make up as much ground as China does, no rate can be too
fast. But housing markets, especially in coastal cities, have been raging.
With observers fretting about bubbles, China's central bank has taken
efforts to discourage real estate lending and choke off inflation. Raising
interest rates is one way to do that.
Why would global stock markets react negatively to this news?
Two reasons. First, think about the changing shape of the world's economic
geography. The U.S. (the world's largest economy), Japan (until recently the
world's second-largest economy), and the European bloc (which rivals the U.
S. in size) are all growing very slowly. China, now the second-largest
economy in the world, accounts for a huge amount of growth and demand. While
it exports a great deal, it also imports massive quantities of everything
from nuts grown in California to copper mined in Chile. The Chinese domestic
market has also finally emerged as an important source of sales; General
Motors sells more cars in China than it does in the U.S. So any hint that
the Chinese juggernaut might be showing signs of slowing is bound to be seen
in a negative light by investors who are concerned about growth.
Second, it was a surprise. Markets hate surprises. As a general rule,
monetary policy in the U.S. and Europe is conducted with a certain amount of
transparency. Officials use speeches and statements to telegraph their
intentions, so as not to surprise investors and markets. In China,
government bodies keep information very close to their vest and don't face
the same type of pressures that western central banks do to give notice
about their actions. Since the markets for Chinese currency are very tightly
controlled, the People's Bank of China doesn't feel the need to communicate
openly about its intentions.
What are the effects of such an increase on China's economy?
The impact of this rate increase lies as much in its symbolism as in its
practical effect. Boosting the rates by 25 basis points is like tapping the
brakes gently on a freight train running at 90 miles per hour -- it can only
slow it down a bit. But it does signal that China's central bank is
sufficiently concerned about some issues in its economy to take action.
The exchange rate of China's currency, the yuan (the Renminbi is the
official name of the currency, while the yuan is the main unit of currency),
against the dollar, has been a contentious issue between the U.S. and China
. How does this move affect the exchange rate?
In theory, raising interest rates in China should make the yuan stronger
against the dollar. All things being equal, money flows toward countries
with higher interest rates (like China) and away from countries with very
low interest rates (like the U.S.). But despite intense pressure from the U.
S. government, China has remained committed to keeping the yuan trading in a
stable range against the greenback. China prefers a weak currency because
it makes Chinese goods cheap for American consumers and makes American-made
goods expensive for Chinese consumers -- which encourages exports and the
consumption of domestically produced goods.
Daniel Gross is economics editor and columnist at Yahoo! Finance.
Follow him on Twitter: @grossdm. Email him at g***********[email protected]. | s*****k
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