a*********a
发帖数: 3656 | 4 考虑不同人群（年龄，习惯。。。）行为不同， ～40%感染率就能达到群面。
考虑到停工停学，社交距离，口罩，20%感染率能达到不爆发是很有可能的。但是20%不
lock down也许不够。
纽约的情况也许更乐观。早在4月，就有产科医院产妇入院检查10%+感染率的数据。
5月就有抽查抗体20%阳性的数据。
http://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/20/antibody-testing-shows-coronavirus-is-still-spreading-in-low-income-minority-communities-in-nyc-gov-cuomo-says.html
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/369/6505/846.full
In response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2),
some politicians have been keen to exploit the idea of achieving herd
immunity. Countering this possibility are estimates derived from work on
historical vaccination studies, which suggest that herd immunity may only be
achieved at an unacceptable cost of lives. Because human populations are
far from homogeneous, Britton et al. show that by introducing age and
activity heterogeneities into population models for SARS-CoV-2, herd
immunity can be achieved at a population-wide infection rate of ∼40%,
considerably lower than previous estimates. This shift is because
transmission and immunity are concentrated among the most active members of
a population, who are often younger and less vulnerable. If
nonpharmaceutical interventions are very strict, no herd immunity is
achieved, and infections will then resurge if they are eased too quickly.
【在 r*********t 的大作中提到】
: 人基本不死了。也没有明鲜反弹。
: 参照纽约之于黑命贵疫情。群免只需20%-30%的感染人口，不需要60%。
: 相对应的，法国反弹严重。德国微小反弹。
|
