n******1
发帖数: 3756 | 1 Paul Ryan的大本营，而且今年8月换届，walker也是这个州的
新闻说是last stand去stop trump
民调也很接近，相信恶战难免 |
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 2 It is critical. After Wisconsin, Cruz will have a winless April.
That is said, the GOPe declares Arizona the last stand to stop Trump too.
They just need some time to get used to losing, losing and losing.
【在 n******1 的大作中提到】
: Paul Ryan的大本营，而且今年8月换届，walker也是这个州的
: 新闻说是last stand去stop trump
: 民调也很接近，相信恶战难免
|
A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 3 换届和这个有毛关系？难道Ryan 还会连任不了吗？这个州没悬念，垃圾媒体造势呢
【在 n******1 的大作中提到】
: Paul Ryan的大本营，而且今年8月换届，walker也是这个州的
: 新闻说是last stand去stop trump
: 民调也很接近，相信恶战难免
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 4 From predict it -
Trump has lost 2 states where over 500k votes were cast. OH and TX. Both
home states as I am sure you know. With the exception of OK (his backyard)
Cruz has won zero states where over 250k votes were cast. There will be
around 1000k votes cast in WI. Cruz's strength is ground game and
organization in small and closed primary states. Wisconsin is neither. This
will be close, but not as close as MO. Winner = Trump. |
n******1
发帖数: 3756 | 5 只要换届，谁都压力,Eric Cantor还不是马失前蹄
如果Trump表现好，Paul Ryan不敢肆无忌惮
【在 A**d 的大作中提到】
: 换届和这个有毛关系？难道Ryan 还会连任不了吗？这个州没悬念，垃圾媒体造势呢
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 6 The voices from the other side (from predict it):
Right now is the lowest support Cruz is going to have in Wisconsin before
voting day. He's only just begun to run television ads today (Wednesday).
Scott Walker will be endorsing and campaigning for him. Jeb Bush's
endorsement is, at the very least, a strong coordination signal to the anti-
Trump vote in the same way Romney's was in Utah. Demographically &
politically, Wisconsin is a clone of the state of Iowa, where I live. As a
state, it does not care much about immigration, racial issues are barely
existent compared to the south and Arizona, and it's a truly social
conservative GOP electorate. All this combined with Cruz routinely out-
performing his poll numbers makes today's +1 lead an even bigger problem for
Trump than most will realize.
The only question in states like WI - states where a significant majority of
people don't like Trump - is whether Cruz can consolidate that hatred of
Trump. Two weeks out, with 8% still undecided, and no ads having been aired,
and Cruz is in a statistical tie with Trump.
Imagine after two weeks of every politician in the state saying "if you don'
t vote for Cruz, you're voting fro Trump." Kasich underperformed UT by about
12%; was this, in part, due to Romney repeating this message to an audience
that loves him? Will walker saying the same thing (he already did today)
have a similar impact on Kasich, or at least swing the undecideds?
There is a lot of time left, but this is Cruz's to lose. Wisconsin voters
have seen Trump, and found him lacking; the only question is whether Cruz
can cobble enough together. |
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 7 I think Trump pulls out a win because he'll be able to focus on just one
state which should help mitigate Cruz's organizational advantage.
But why Trump does not have any event scheduled in Wisconsin yet? |
A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 8 把那个犹太猪跟Ryan比，真心脑子进水了
【在 n******1 的大作中提到】
: 只要换届，谁都压力,Eric Cantor还不是马失前蹄
: 如果Trump表现好，Paul Ryan不敢肆无忌惮
|
n******1
发帖数: 3756 | 9 你真是属于两句话出口就得罪人的
【在 A**d 的大作中提到】
: 把那个犹太猪跟Ryan比，真心脑子进水了
|
c*******e
发帖数: 5818 | 10 trump得歇息一下，最重要得重重电，这段时间的rally基本就那些话，他可以或换换说
法，然后在针对wi 的Message out。
我估计，也许这个周末会有些动作。
【在 m****g 的大作中提到】
: I think Trump pulls out a win because he'll be able to focus on just one
: state which should help mitigate Cruz's organizational advantage.
: But why Trump does not have any event scheduled in Wisconsin yet?
|
|
|
l*****o
发帖数: 9235 | |
B********d
发帖数: 1262 | 12 州长endorsement可不是好事，Walker的支持率蛮高的
不过WI也很liberal，神棍很少，没有州长endorsement，Cruz不容易拿下来。最近看病
，跟几个护士聊过，都不喜欢Hilary 还有Cruz，觉得Trump还行。周围的同事非常
liberal，投Cruz的可能性不大。不过我的sample样本也不大。明天还得跟同事吃饭，
让他去动员周围的人去投票。
anti-
【在 m****g 的大作中提到】
: The voices from the other side (from predict it):
: Right now is the lowest support Cruz is going to have in Wisconsin before
: voting day. He's only just begun to run television ads today (Wednesday).
: Scott Walker will be endorsing and campaigning for him. Jeb Bush's
: endorsement is, at the very least, a strong coordination signal to the anti-
: Trump vote in the same way Romney's was in Utah. Demographically &
: politically, Wisconsin is a clone of the state of Iowa, where I live. As a
: state, it does not care much about immigration, racial issues are barely
: existent compared to the south and Arizona, and it's a truly social
: conservative GOP electorate. All this combined with Cruz routinely out-
|
p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 13 这个primary 投票是民主党员也可以参加的吗？
【在 B********d 的大作中提到】
: 州长endorsement可不是好事，Walker的支持率蛮高的
: 不过WI也很liberal，神棍很少，没有州长endorsement，Cruz不容易拿下来。最近看病
: ，跟几个护士聊过，都不喜欢Hilary 还有Cruz，觉得Trump还行。周围的同事非常
: liberal，投Cruz的可能性不大。不过我的sample样本也不大。明天还得跟同事吃饭，
: 让他去动员周围的人去投票。
:
: anti-
|
w********2
发帖数: 16371 | 14 paul ryan 还在观望。wisconsin 至关重要
【在 n******1 的大作中提到】
: Paul Ryan的大本营，而且今年8月换届，walker也是这个州的
: 新闻说是last stand去stop trump
: 民调也很接近，相信恶战难免
|
t*******d
发帖数: 12895 | 15 州长给克鲁兹站台是很讨厌的因素
【在 B********d 的大作中提到】
: 州长endorsement可不是好事，Walker的支持率蛮高的
: 不过WI也很liberal，神棍很少，没有州长endorsement，Cruz不容易拿下来。最近看病
: ，跟几个护士聊过，都不喜欢Hilary 还有Cruz，觉得Trump还行。周围的同事非常
: liberal，投Cruz的可能性不大。不过我的sample样本也不大。明天还得跟同事吃饭，
: 让他去动员周围的人去投票。
:
: anti-
|
s*******1
发帖数: 16479 | 16 不是州长站一个衰一个么？
【在 t*******d 的大作中提到】
: 州长给克鲁兹站台是很讨厌的因素
|
A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 17 lying Ted至今只赢过德州和俄克拉荷马俩主场primary,其余都是caucus神棍们搞群众
暴力
。比威斯康星神棍得多的密苏里他使劲了吃奶的力气血拼也赢不下来，拿什么赢威斯康
星？
【在 B********d 的大作中提到】
: 州长endorsement可不是好事，Walker的支持率蛮高的
: 不过WI也很liberal，神棍很少，没有州长endorsement，Cruz不容易拿下来。最近看病
: ，跟几个护士聊过，都不喜欢Hilary 还有Cruz，觉得Trump还行。周围的同事非常
: liberal，投Cruz的可能性不大。不过我的sample样本也不大。明天还得跟同事吃饭，
: 让他去动员周围的人去投票。
:
: anti-
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 18 Agree.
lying Ted至今只赢过德州和俄克拉荷马俩主场primary,其余都是caucus神棍们搞群众
【在 A**d 的大作中提到】
: lying Ted至今只赢过德州和俄克拉荷马俩主场primary,其余都是caucus神棍们搞群众
: 暴力
: 。比威斯康星神棍得多的密苏里他使劲了吃奶的力气血拼也赢不下来，拿什么赢威斯康
: 星？
|
j*********r
发帖数: 24733 | 19 March 29 Janesville, WI @ 3:00pm |
h**********e
发帖数: 786 | 20 这个州太重要了，床粉加把劲，老美历史的走向就看这一次，输了，床粉可以洗洗睡了
，再等二十年。 |
|
|
Y**********g
发帖数: 4840 | 21 你悲愤没有用
输了就没戏的是科鲁兹
【在 h**********e 的大作中提到】
: 这个州太重要了，床粉加把劲，老美历史的走向就看这一次，输了，床粉可以洗洗睡了
: ，再等二十年。
|
f*******7
发帖数: 2210 | 22 我来回答你这个傻逼，MO主要是有Rubio分票，不然肯定是cruz赢。
lying Ted至今只赢过德州和俄克拉荷马俩主场primary,其余都是caucus神棍们搞群众
【在 A**d 的大作中提到】
: lying Ted至今只赢过德州和俄克拉荷马俩主场primary,其余都是caucus神棍们搞群众
: 暴力
: 。比威斯康星神棍得多的密苏里他使劲了吃奶的力气血拼也赢不下来，拿什么赢威斯康
: 星？
|
Y**********g
发帖数: 4840 | 23 如表没有神棍粉
没有如表，这些都变无脑神棍粉么？
【在 f*******7 的大作中提到】
: 我来回答你这个傻逼，MO主要是有Rubio分票，不然肯定是cruz赢。
:
: lying Ted至今只赢过德州和俄克拉荷马俩主场primary,其余都是caucus神棍们搞群众
|
A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 24 啃你个鬼的腚，Rubio在FL分了老头那么多精力和钱，Cruz全力搞MO一个州都赢不下来
，你这个傻逼民主党还有脸说分票。你这个白痴还抱怨床铺在北卡竞选，不去争更重要
的伊利诺伊，睁开你狗眼看看伊利诺伊赢了多少，北卡赢了百分之几。白痴还有脸出来
继续瞎逼逼。
【在 f*******7 的大作中提到】
: 我来回答你这个傻逼，MO主要是有Rubio分票，不然肯定是cruz赢。
:
: lying Ted至今只赢过德州和俄克拉荷马俩主场primary,其余都是caucus神棍们搞群众
|
A**d
发帖数: 13310 | 25 给共和党中央操碎了心的傻逼民主党们都在那幻想谁谁退选剩下的人都集中到非床铺的
一个人手里，被抽了无数次脸还在逼逼那个论调。Jeb都退出了，机器人还是在FL就拿
那点票，在各州都拿个位数，还有脸鬼扯分票。
【在 Y**********g 的大作中提到】
: 如表没有神棍粉
: 没有如表，这些都变无脑神棍粉么？
|
p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 26 看看 redstae, oregon live 这种反川普，挺 Cruz 的左逼或者神棍网站，在 AZ
primary 前都在幻想 Cruz 赢 AZ.
【在 m****g 的大作中提到】
: It is critical. After Wisconsin, Cruz will have a winless April.
: That is said, the GOPe declares Arizona the last stand to stop Trump too.
: They just need some time to get used to losing, losing and losing.
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 27 Trump is driving Cruz votes to Kasich.
He is more likely to win Wisconsin thanks to a split field.
【在 p*****n 的大作中提到】
: 看看 redstae, oregon live 这种反川普，挺 Cruz 的左逼或者神棍网站，在 AZ
: primary 前都在幻想 Cruz 赢 AZ.
|
p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | 28 希望如此。
【在 m****g 的大作中提到】
: Trump is driving Cruz votes to Kasich.
: He is more likely to win Wisconsin thanks to a split field.
|
n******1
发帖数: 3756 | 29 Trump会一直留在WI直到星期二甚至星期三
这会是战略性的一战，希望可以全歼Paul Ryan一部的有生力量 |
