s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 1 ID and MO will go to Cruz;
Trump will win MI, MS, and IL.
Rubot will take HI.
OH and NC will be close. Trump may end up losing OH, but winning NC with a
small margin.
Of everything, Trump can't afford losing FL. Though he'd still be the front
runner and has the best theoretical change of winning, the up-hill battle
will be insurmountably steep.
Trump stands no chance at a contested convention. |
i**t
发帖数: 3556 | |
s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 3 大胆说一句，明天的密州是极好的风向标。如果连MI都拿不下来，我实在不看好老头力
挽狂澜，as much as I support him. |
m********g
发帖数: 10469 | 4 老王不是全家出动
【在 s********t 的大作中提到】
: 大胆说一句，明天的密州是极好的风向标。如果连MI都拿不下来，我实在不看好老头力
: 挽狂澜，as much as I support him.
|
s*********0
发帖数: 455 | 5 华人上有人说Michigan 投票不要ID... 不知道是个什么情况。。。
front
【在 s********t 的大作中提到】
: ID and MO will go to Cruz;
: Trump will win MI, MS, and IL.
: Rubot will take HI.
: OH and NC will be close. Trump may end up losing OH, but winning NC with a
: small margin.
: Of everything, Trump can't afford losing FL. Though he'd still be the front
: runner and has the best theoretical change of winning, the up-hill battle
: will be insurmountably steep.
: Trump stands no chance at a contested convention.
|
v**c
发帖数: 51 | 6 没有那么复杂， 其实TRUMP已经赢定了， 别的人没戏， ESTABLISHMENT 也已经意识到了
现在就是双方在讨价还价中， 就是看TRUMP到底想要多少
front
【在 s********t 的大作中提到】
: ID and MO will go to Cruz;
: Trump will win MI, MS, and IL.
: Rubot will take HI.
: OH and NC will be close. Trump may end up losing OH, but winning NC with a
: small margin.
: Of everything, Trump can't afford losing FL. Though he'd still be the front
: runner and has the best theoretical change of winning, the up-hill battle
: will be insurmountably steep.
: Trump stands no chance at a contested convention.
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 7 老王, please deliver MI for Trump.
【在 m********g 的大作中提到】
: 老王不是全家出动
|
s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 8 I have to say, this is wishful thinking. I have consistently predicted hard-
battled victory for Trump, and at this point in the race I don't see any
reason to be more, if not less, optimistic than that.
到了
【在 v**c 的大作中提到】
: 没有那么复杂， 其实TRUMP已经赢定了， 别的人没戏， ESTABLISHMENT 也已经意识到了
: 现在就是双方在讨价还价中， 就是看TRUMP到底想要多少
:
: front
|
p*****n
发帖数: 3678 | |
s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 10 I stand corrected. In fact, this is one of the few times I'd be happily
proven wrong! :) |
|
|
s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 11 I don't disagree with your summary of Trump's positions, and I support him
as much as you do. I just sincerely hope your optimism on the American
people is right.
trade, |
Q****r
发帖数: 7340 | 12 Cruz当然是establishment，版上怎么会有人觉得他不是？
trade, |
s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 13 "Everybody" knows Cruz has no chance in GE? You overestimate the American
people.
BTW, I don't think Trump's biggest rival in MI is Cruz. It is Kasich in my
opinion. |
m********g
发帖数: 10469 | |
s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 15 Exactly.
【在 m********g 的大作中提到】
: 大赢MI是太乐观,LA已经显示了
|
r*****c
发帖数: 897 | 16 agree ，每次poll都过于乐观了
【在 m********g 的大作中提到】
: 大赢MI是太乐观,LA已经显示了
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 17 Carson's votes went to Cruz in LA. I don't see Carson will play a major
factor in MI.
I hope the best.
【在 m********g 的大作中提到】
: 大赢MI是太乐观,LA已经显示了
|
s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 18 TeddyBear MM，俺不跟你争了。希望你是对的 ：）反正大家都希望Trump赢。 |
Q****r
发帖数: 7340 | 19 如果MI真的是open的话，trump还真可能是大赢。MI是很liberal 的州，看不惯Cruz的
太多，2000年，04年在GE都是投民主党的。
反民主党，基本上是共识了，多年的民主党州长都被换成共和党的了。在flint water
上，trump没有发言，当然三天前，Rubio出来在flint water上支持州长了。Trump也没
有算失分。
【在 s********t 的大作中提到】
: TeddyBear MM，俺不跟你争了。希望你是对的 ：）反正大家都希望Trump赢。
|
s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 20 你说的对。在MI俺根本就不担心科鲁兹；州长才是真正的威胁。
water
【在 Q****r 的大作中提到】
: 如果MI真的是open的话，trump还真可能是大赢。MI是很liberal 的州，看不惯Cruz的
: 太多，2000年，04年在GE都是投民主党的。
: 反民主党，基本上是共识了，多年的民主党州长都被换成共和党的了。在flint water
: 上，trump没有发言，当然三天前，Rubio出来在flint water上支持州长了。Trump也没
: 有算失分。
|
|
|
Q****r
发帖数: 7340 | 21 州长赢也不一定是坏事
最后结果就是州长继续run，大家分票，trump拿不到50%,但还是第一
【在 s********t 的大作中提到】
: 你说的对。在MI俺根本就不担心科鲁兹；州长才是真正的威胁。
:
: water
|
s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 22 Then Trump will lose the nomination in a contested convention...
Did you not see this coming?
【在 Q****r 的大作中提到】
: 州长赢也不一定是坏事
: 最后结果就是州长继续run，大家分票，trump拿不到50%,但还是第一
|
Q****r
发帖数: 7340 | 23 最后就第三党了，这搞不好是美国政治变化的一个开端
大家需要一个中产党
【在 s********t 的大作中提到】
: Then Trump will lose the nomination in a contested convention...
: Did you not see this coming?
|
s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 24 Hillary will become the president if that's the case, unfortunately...
【在 Q****r 的大作中提到】
: 最后就第三党了，这搞不好是美国政治变化的一个开端
: 大家需要一个中产党
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 25 Who will be the nomination in a contested convention?
If not Trump, Trump will most likely run as an independent candidate, then
deprive any chance for the republican nominee.
I don't think Cruz or Rubio want to be the nominee, because they are still
young. Rubio might want to because he looks stupid. But is he so stupid?
Then we only have Kasich, Romney and Bush. They are old, and they can care
less about the future.
All in all, Kasich, Romney and Bush want a contested convention. Trump and
Cruz don't.
Rubio is a wild card because he likes to shoot himself.
【在 s********t 的大作中提到】
: Then Trump will lose the nomination in a contested convention...
: Did you not see this coming?
|
t*******d
发帖数: 12895 | 26 希望州长和如婊都早输早退
川普早日单挑克鲁兹
【在 Q****r 的大作中提到】
: 州长赢也不一定是坏事
: 最后结果就是州长继续run，大家分票，trump拿不到50%,但还是第一
|
Q****r
发帖数: 7340 | 27 州长退了，可能选票会去trump，Rubio的选票搞不好就去了cruz
【在 t*******d 的大作中提到】
: 希望州长和如婊都早输早退
: 川普早日单挑克鲁兹
|
r****p
发帖数: 480 | 28 Rubio和州长要么都退让cruz和Trump one on one，要么都不退彼此分票。
我觉得3/15以后最坏的结果就是剩下Trump, Cruz和Kasich，这样Trump立场夹在中间，
在深蓝州很难受。
【在 Q****r 的大作中提到】
: 州长退了，可能选票会去trump，Rubio的选票搞不好就去了cruz
|
s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 29 A contested convention显然是个两败俱伤的结局。GOP党妈为了derail Trump, 的确
有可能不惜输掉大选的代价。反正老妖婆也是part of the establishment.
问题是Trump想要contested convention吗？他有一张independent run的底牌是没错，
可真要是走了那条路，没有巨大GOP machine的支持，他是赢不了GE的。Trump深知这一
点，所以他才要借壳上市，尽管理念多有不同。
真要是Trump breaks out of GOP, 老妖婆估计要从梦里笑醒了。
and
【在 m****g 的大作中提到】
: Who will be the nomination in a contested convention?
: If not Trump, Trump will most likely run as an independent candidate, then
: deprive any chance for the republican nominee.
: I don't think Cruz or Rubio want to be the nominee, because they are still
: young. Rubio might want to because he looks stupid. But is he so stupid?
: Then we only have Kasich, Romney and Bush. They are old, and they can care
: less about the future.
: All in all, Kasich, Romney and Bush want a contested convention. Trump and
: Cruz don't.
: Rubio is a wild card because he likes to shoot himself.
|
m****g
发帖数: 2215 | 30 Agree.
Kasich, Romney and Bush might be satisfied as a losing republican nominee.
At least, guys, I am the nominee.
True conservatives should reject these RINO.
【在 s********t 的大作中提到】
: A contested convention显然是个两败俱伤的结局。GOP党妈为了derail Trump, 的确
: 有可能不惜输掉大选的代价。反正老妖婆也是part of the establishment.
: 问题是Trump想要contested convention吗？他有一张independent run的底牌是没错，
: 可真要是走了那条路，没有巨大GOP machine的支持，他是赢不了GE的。Trump深知这一
: 点，所以他才要借壳上市，尽管理念多有不同。
: 真要是Trump breaks out of GOP, 老妖婆估计要从梦里笑醒了。
:
: and
|
|
|
s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 31 那样的话，老唐左右逢源，也未必会输。
问题还是那一个：到不了1237 delegates; then contested convention. Trump has
no chance there.
【在 r****p 的大作中提到】
: Rubio和州长要么都退让cruz和Trump one on one，要么都不退彼此分票。
: 我觉得3/15以后最坏的结果就是剩下Trump, Cruz和Kasich，这样Trump立场夹在中间，
: 在深蓝州很难受。
|
r****p
发帖数: 480 | 32 像加州这种地方，很多人反Trump投不下去cruz, 但是Kasich在就会投他。
【在 s********t 的大作中提到】
: 那样的话，老唐左右逢源，也未必会输。
: 问题还是那一个：到不了1237 delegates; then contested convention. Trump has
: no chance there.
|
