l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 Michael Medved：别忘了，年轻的奥巴马选民有一天会步入中年，很可能和他们之前的
中年人一样，转向保守
The Not-So-Liberal American Future
Dec 2, 2012 4:45 AM EST
Young Obama voters will stay Democrats all their lives. That’s the latest
liberal argument—but statistics showing many maturing voters turn
conservative, plus our aging population, should give Republicans hope, says
Michael Medved.
Does ideology shape life experience, or does life experience determine
ideology? The future direction of American politics depends on our response.
In response to the disappointing results of November’s elections, I have
argued that conservatives should take heart from the undeniable aging of the
electorate, which will tilt future contests toward Republicans. 2012 exit
polls showed Mitt Romney sweeping voters 65 and older in a 12-point
landslide, and among all those above age 30 (81 percent of the voting public
) the Republican nominee prevailed by a solid margin. President Obama won
the overall vote solely on the strength of his crushing 60-to-36 advantage
with the 18-to-30 crowd. If official projections prove accurate, low
birthrates and rising life expectancy will produce a much higher percentage
of elderly Americans in the electorate, conferring a significant edge for
conservative candidates in future close elections.
But Democrats hope that young Obama enthusiasts will maintain their
overwhelmingly liberal orientation even as they grow older and their life
circumstances change. In a provocative piece for New York magazine that
calls conservatives “doomed,” Jonathan Chait argues that the president’s
support from young voters in the last two election cycles went “beyond the
usual reasons—social issues like gay marriage and feminism, immigration
policy or Obama’s personal appeal—and suggest a deeper attachment to
liberalism. The proclivities of younger voters may actually portend a full-
scale sea change in American politics.” He goes on to cite a Pew survey
suggesting that “Americans form a voting pattern early in their life and
tend to hold to it.”
That conclusion, however, contradicts the evidence of 40 years of exit polls
. In 11 presidential elections since 1972, voters over 65 have voted more
Republican than voters under 30 in every contest but one (1988, for some
reason). In none of the 11 elections did young voters tilt more Republican
than the overall electorate; their levels of support for Democratic
candidates in each campaign topped those of the general electorate by an
average of five points.
These figures conclusively rebut the progressive hope that youthful liberals
generally maintain their fervent commitment to liberalism as they age and
mature. The voters who lean Republican in middle age and beyond are the same
people, after all, who leaned Democratic in their younger years. For all
their diabolical cleverness, Karl Rove and other cunning conservatives haven
’t yet developed a scheme for creating new voters in a lab who emerge pre-
aged to a seasoned 65 with an unstoppable instinct to vote for members of
the Bush family.
My own experience could serve to illustrate the point.
I cast my first presidential ballot in 1972 for the Democratic nominee,
George McGovern. (I also worked professionally in the McGovern campaign, but
that’s another story entirely.) At the time, I joined my fellow baby
boomers, then 18-29, in giving McGovern 46 percent of our support—vastly
better than the truly pathetic 38 percent he received from the overall
electorate on his way to crushing defeat in a 49-state landslide.
Twelve years later, my cohort had moved on, and so had I. The youngest of
the old group had now reached age 30 and the oldest of us were well into
their 40s. Like 58 percent of all voters between ages 30 and 49 in 1984, I
proudly cast my vote for Ronald Reagan (I had also supported him in 1980.)
This time, the boomers who had given McGovern an eight-point advantage
compared to his showing in the broader electorate gave Democrat Walter
Mondale only one point more, 42 percent, than his percentage of the
nationwide popular vote. In other words, as we moved toward middle age, the
progressive tilt that had characterized our youth had all but disappeared. | a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 2 我30岁左右开始唾弃民主党。之前很反感共和党。
我一到美国就到了一个民主党铁票区，那个时候支持民主党，
但是后来在加州呆久了，就看透民主党的脑残了。
says
response.
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: Michael Medved：别忘了，年轻的奥巴马选民有一天会步入中年，很可能和他们之前的
: 中年人一样，转向保守
: The Not-So-Liberal American Future
: Dec 2, 2012 4:45 AM EST
: Young Obama voters will stay Democrats all their lives. That’s the latest
: liberal argument—but statistics showing many maturing voters turn
: conservative, plus our aging population, should give Republicans hope, says
: Michael Medved.
: Does ideology shape life experience, or does life experience determine
: ideology? The future direction of American politics depends on our response.
| s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 3 民主党一点都不脑残，非常会绑架民主。
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: 我30岁左右开始唾弃民主党。之前很反感共和党。
: 我一到美国就到了一个民主党铁票区，那个时候支持民主党，
: 但是后来在加州呆久了，就看透民主党的脑残了。
:
: says
: response.
| r******g
发帖数: 4002 | 4 民主党的支持者“无知少女”：无产者，知识分子，年轻人，女性。至于年轻人，当成
家立业，思想成熟了，就知道哪一个政党对社会发展最有利了。 | l******g
发帖数: 6771 | 5 那说说共和党的支持者都有谁？不怕不识货，就怕货比货
【在 r******g 的大作中提到】
: 民主党的支持者“无知少女”：无产者，知识分子，年轻人，女性。至于年轻人，当成
: 家立业，思想成熟了，就知道哪一个政党对社会发展最有利了。
| C****n
发帖数: 2324 | 6 其实你仔细看一下， 这群人都是被别人养着的, 都是不创造社会财富的。
其实民主共和之争简单说来就是工作的和不工作的之间的分歧。
【在 r******g 的大作中提到】
: 民主党的支持者“无知少女”：无产者，知识分子，年轻人，女性。至于年轻人，当成
: 家立业，思想成熟了，就知道哪一个政党对社会发展最有利了。
| l******g
发帖数: 6771 | 7 好吧，我来讲几个，呵呵
大资本家，老白，红脖，种族主义者，军火商，宗教神棍，呵呵
【在 l******g 的大作中提到】
: 那说说共和党的支持者都有谁？不怕不识货，就怕货比货
| l******g
发帖数: 6771 | 8 总结，为富不仁和脑残的结晶，呵呵
【在 l******g 的大作中提到】
: 好吧，我来讲几个，呵呵
: 大资本家，老白，红脖，种族主义者，军火商，宗教神棍，呵呵
| l******t
发帖数: 12659 | 9 为富又仁的，不脑残的都是民主党吗？
【在 l******g 的大作中提到】
: 总结，为富不仁和脑残的结晶，呵呵
| l******g
发帖数: 6771 | 10 必要不充分
【在 l******t 的大作中提到】
: 为富又仁的，不脑残的都是民主党吗？
| a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 11 是这样的。 我支持民主党的时候，收入也很低，就ta/ra那点点钱，
虽然年年交税，但是一来税率低，感觉不到民主党税收政策的不好，
二来不买房，没生娃，对大政府的危害也没有认识。
工作了，移民了，买房了，生娃了，娃要上学了，就越来越反对民主党的政策。
民主党的政策，客观上鼓励吃福利的人留在福利池里面，而且政府提供
越来越多的岗位，帮助吃福利的人继续吃福利。尤其对民主党的移民
政策，完全反对。民主党对hispanic非法移民之好，却千方百计卡
中国来的技术移民，只要选票，不要国家长期发展的自私行为，
让美国完全被黑人和hispanic所绑架。
【在 C****n 的大作中提到】
: 其实你仔细看一下， 这群人都是被别人养着的, 都是不创造社会财富的。
: 其实民主共和之争简单说来就是工作的和不工作的之间的分歧。
| b******o
发帖数: 5644 | 12 不设固定税率，大家愿意交多少交多少，根据交的情况享受社会福利，当然不是纯线性
的。不知道资深左派有多少多交税来支援＂需要的人＂的。就连极左眼里的圣人，巴菲
特，盖茨也没有把钱给政府，而是自己掌握，做社会慈善。
我觉得左派认为奥巴马政府是象巴盖那样的慈善机构是不对的。政府就是从一个人的口
袋里掏出来，给另一个人。在每个毛孔都流着血的资本主义社会里，活着的总统是从大
资本家手里掏不出钱的。 | b*******h
发帖数: 2585 | 13 每代人的意识形态价值都不一样，政党也是跟着变化调整的。这里面还有一个1利益的
问题。双方的支持者总是离50% 差不多。 |
|
