l**1
发帖数: 1875 | 1 Mitt Romney Is Losing The Election That Matters
Jason Sattler
If you average all the national polls together, Mitt Romney has a slight
lead over President Obama — anywhere from .01 percent to .09 percent.
But if you look at the swing states where the race is being decided, Mitt
Romney is losing — and he’s never been ahead.
As The New Republic’s Nate Cohn wrote Thursday morning, “With just 12 days
to go, every day without signs of Romney making gains in Ohio, Wisconsin,
or Nevada counts as a win for the president.”
Romney needs to win all three of those states to win. And if he loses Ohio
and Virginia, he’s done. Virginia is closer than Ohio is.
The New York Times’ Nate Silver explains that while Romney’s numbers
improved after the first debate, he never had much if any momentum in the
states that matter:
Since the Denver debate, Mr. Obama has held the lead in 16 Ohio polls
against 6 for Mr. Romney. In Nevada, Mr. Obama has had the lead in 11 polls,
to Mr. Romney’s 1. Mr. Obama has led in all polls of Wisconsin since the
Denver debate, and he has had five poll leads in Iowa to one for Mr. Romney.
Romeny’s team is trying to sell the idea that they have some momentum and
the national polls confuse the issue. But The Washington Post‘s Jonathan
Bernstein questions if such a thing even exists:
We’re better off thinking of “bumps” and “bounces” — reactions to
events, which move a set of voters for either a very short time or a longer
term. In Romney’s case, he had a “surge” in early October — but that
tells us absolutely nothing about which direction the polls are moving in
now and will move in until election day.
You can understand why Romney is trying to conjure the idea that he has some
momentum, though. Because if things don’t change drastically the election
that matters will be over, and he’ll have lost. | g******s
发帖数: 3056 | 2 发信人: lot1 (花开花落知多少), 信区: Military
标 题: 我觉得王石的前妻王江惠非常的漂亮性感，看着她的照片，我都硬了。。
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Nov 1 19:43:38 2012, 美东)
我觉得王石的前妻王江惠非常的漂亮性感，看着她的照片，我都硬了。。 |
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