l****z
发帖数: 29846 | 1 So Much For Today's Surprising "Drop" In Weekly Jobless Claims; California
Forgot to Report 30,000 Claims; What We Learned Today
by n*****[email protected] (Mike Mish Shedlock)
For the second time in less than a week surprising jobs numbers came into
play. The Labor Department reported a four-year low of 339,000 first-time
claims.
Some claimed this validated last Friday's jobs report, a silly notion
because the two are not that closely related and a single week of data is
meaningless.
I still think Friday's jobs report will be revised away, but I am positive
today's "surprising" report will be (for the simple reason California forgot
to report 30,000 claims).
Please consider Jobless Claims Data Skewed Downward.
Initial jobless claims, which are a measure of the number of people
recently laid off, fell by 30,000 to a seasonally adjusted 339,000, the
lowest level in more than four years.
But the Labor Department spokesman said the numbers were skewed by one
large state that underreported its data. The spokesman declined to identify
the state, but economists believe California is the only state large enough
to have such a significant impact on the overall numbers.
According to the spokesman, the reason that state’s claims numbers fell
short was because the state left out a pile of unprocessed claims related
to seasonal factors around the beginning of the fourth quarter, which began
Oct. 1.
In a research note, Stephen Stanley of Pierpont Securities summed up the
data: “In short, this reading is worthless in terms of informing on the
general economy.”
Actually, the report isn't worthless, it's simply erroneous. Add back in 30,
000 claims and the number is 369,000 right about where it has been for some
time.
Is there a conspiracy here? Once again the answer is no.
This large state has a history of reporting “volatile” numbers at the
beginning of quarters and that the Labor Department has complained and tried
to work with the state to more accurately report its claims but with little
success.
“There is no explanation” for the volatility. “We have tried and
tried to work with them. It’s like playing hardball with them,” the
spokesman said.
The spokesman said that the unprocessed claims are likely to show up in
the numbers in the next week or two. “We should see some sort of catch up.”
What We Learned Today
The labor department did not confirm the state was California but who else
can it be?
We did learn one useful piece of information today: The first couple weeks
of every quarter are likely to be seriously messed up by under-reporting of
claims from California. | l**********p
发帖数: 272 | 2 forgot to report?Is this real or joking? seriously
【在 l****z 的大作中提到】
: So Much For Today's Surprising "Drop" In Weekly Jobless Claims; California
: Forgot to Report 30,000 Claims; What We Learned Today
: by n*****[email protected] (Mike Mish Shedlock)
: For the second time in less than a week surprising jobs numbers came into
: play. The Labor Department reported a four-year low of 339,000 first-time
: claims.
: Some claimed this validated last Friday's jobs report, a silly notion
: because the two are not that closely related and a single week of data is
: meaningless.
: I still think Friday's jobs report will be revised away, but I am positive
| s**********l
发帖数: 8966 | 3 股票票当天是跌的，你觉得要是真好了华尔街的那么傻么？
奥巴马这人最大的问题就是不要脸，什么都玩黑帮政治以为别人都是傻子，丫的这次就
是洋相出尽还输，自己跟朴泰桓交流心得体会算了。
【在 l**********p 的大作中提到】
: forgot to report?Is this real or joking? seriously
| s********t
发帖数: 4150 | 4 黑8跟土共相比，真是青出于蓝而胜于蓝。
【在 s**********l 的大作中提到】
: 股票票当天是跌的，你觉得要是真好了华尔街的那么傻么？
: 奥巴马这人最大的问题就是不要脸，什么都玩黑帮政治以为别人都是傻子，丫的这次就
: 是洋相出尽还输，自己跟朴泰桓交流心得体会算了。
| b*******n
发帖数: 8420 | 5 这JB就是个政治流氓
现在又学阿扁，临选前搞枪击案
【在 s**********l 的大作中提到】
: 股票票当天是跌的，你觉得要是真好了华尔街的那么傻么？
: 奥巴马这人最大的问题就是不要脸，什么都玩黑帮政治以为别人都是傻子，丫的这次就
: 是洋相出尽还输，自己跟朴泰桓交流心得体会算了。
| b*******n
发帖数: 8420 | 6 实在太下作了
融合了黑人的无耻抱怨+土共社会主义大锅饭制度+老毛阶级斗争理论+阿扁的竞选伎俩
我觉得罗姆尼即使是为富不仁也比奥巴马这种流氓政客强得多
【在 s********t 的大作中提到】
: 黑8跟土共相比，真是青出于蓝而胜于蓝。
|
|
