B*V
发帖数: 3365 | 1 http://www.economist.com/blogs/theworldin2012/2011/12/top-econo
“LIES, damn lies and statistics”, as Britain’s Benjamin Disraeli
supposedly said—and Mark Twain definitely said. The phrase came to
Cassandra’s mind when ruminating on the “world in figures” section of The
World in 2012, in particular when looking at the predicted rankings for
economic growth in the year ahead.
I have no quarrel with the figures themselves, all drawn from the
acknowledged number-crunchers at the Economist Intelligence Unit. But as
Bobby Kennedy famously said in his 1968 speech at the University of Kansas:
Too much and too long, we seem to have surrendered community excellence
and community values in the mere accumulation of material things. Our gross
national product ... if we should judge America by that - counts air
pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of
carnage. It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for those who
break them. It counts the destruction of our redwoods and the loss of our
natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm and the cost of a nuclear
warhead, and armored cars for police who fight riots in our streets. It
counts Whitman's rifle and Speck's knife, and the television programs which
glorify violence in order to sell toys to our children.
"Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our
children, the quality of their education, or the joy of their play. It does
not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages; the
intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials.
It measures neither our wit nor our courage; neither our wisdom nor our
learning; neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country; it
measures everything, in short, except that which makes life worthwhile. And
it tells us everything about America except why we are proud that we are
Americans.
With Kennedy’s words in mind a 15% growth rate for Macau—a tiny gambling
haven for punters from Hong Kong and China—is meaningless. And should we
really be impressed by the figures for Libya and Iraq, since they so clearly
reflect a virtually automatic bounce-back from war? Much more significant
in Cassandra’s view is the healthy 8.2% prediction for China. That may, of
course, reflect a boom that eventually must burst (The World in 2012 worries
about China’s growing debt), but with the economies of the western world
in the doldrums we had better keep our fingers crossed that the prediction
proves right. |
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