a**********y
发帖数: 930 | 1 这个人叫karen bruton，去参加seminar，被人忽悠去念了博士，估计那种水货，读了
一年半拿了博士。
然后牛逼用一万刀起步，几年就变成四千多万美元。
当然，后面故事很精彩，大家看看
牛人介绍：
Background
Attended a $22K Investools PhD course that took 1.5 years.
Traded stocks using technical analysis from 2002 to 2007 with $10K capital.
Start non-directional trading using options from 2007 with ~$100K capital,
and made 50%.
Friends put in money to start 2008 off with $700K.
Made $41M profits by 2011, fund size was ~$80M.
As of May 2012, was managing around ~$160M.
Basic Strategy
Theta trader, tries to pull as much time value out as possible. Theta starts
decaying around 45 days.
When volatility is high, she keeps on selling and buying back the options to
capture the value.
Trading index options allow for non-directional play, as well as being able
to not be impacted by stocks’ earnings season.
Timeframe
Sells the options that expire around 56 days, or 8 weeks away. Usually like
to let the options expire when the month comes by.
Execution
Sells Put options (on a market downswing) that have probability of being in-
the-money of ~5% (TOS estimates that by looking at the one-year standard
deviation of the underlying and assumes a Normal distribution, so 5% in-the-
money is 1.64 standard deviations away)
Sells Call options (on a market upswing) that have probability of being in-
the-money of ~10%. Tries to sell the Call options above strong market
resistance levels.
Reason behind the 5% vs. 10% probabilities is that “the market crashes down
, not up”, then down moves are quicker, so to be safe the Puts need to be
further out.
The positions are legged-in, i.e. the Puts and Calls are not sold at the
same time.
Sells more Puts than Calls.
Position
Usually commits 50%-70% of net liquidity so as to leave ammo to manage
positions.
Problem Management
If an option gets to 30% probability of being in-the-money, the position
needs to be actively managed.
Any costs associated with fixing the problem (e.g. losses due to closing the
position), will be made up by selling more options to get the premiums to
cover the losses.
For example, if the market moves up, she may sell more Call options that are
further out (i.e. higher strikes), or sell more Put options at higher
strikes (higher compared to the previously sold puts).
When the market drops and volatility spikes (i.e. she is losing money on the
Puts she sold), the fact that the strikes were far away (5% probability of
being ITM) gives her time to assess and adjust her positions.
When the Flash Crash of May 2010 happened, she closed her profitable
positions and sold options further away (October, November months) to get
more time to assess the situation.
大家看见牛人沮丧的不要泄气，看看后续报道：
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13593247/1/karen-the-supertrader-s-winning-
strategy-relied-on-fraud-sec-alleges.html | c******a
发帖数: 4400 | | c******a
发帖数: 4400 | | g*********9
发帖数: 1285 | 4 智商暴露贴。
【在 c******a 的大作中提到】
: 能不能信是另外一回事吧，一看样子就不对
| a**********y
发帖数: 930 | 5 这个人叫karen bruton，去参加seminar，被人忽悠去念了博士，估计那种水货，读了
一年半拿了博士。
然后牛逼用一万刀起步，几年就变成四千多万美元。
当然，后面故事很精彩，大家看看
牛人介绍：
Background
Attended a $22K Investools PhD course that took 1.5 years.
Traded stocks using technical analysis from 2002 to 2007 with $10K capital.
Start non-directional trading using options from 2007 with ~$100K capital,
and made 50%.
Friends put in money to start 2008 off with $700K.
Made $41M profits by 2011, fund size was ~$80M.
As of May 2012, was managing around ~$160M.
Basic Strategy
Theta trader, tries to pull as much time value out as possible. Theta starts
decaying around 45 days.
When volatility is high, she keeps on selling and buying back the options to
capture the value.
Trading index options allow for non-directional play, as well as being able
to not be impacted by stocks’ earnings season.
Timeframe
Sells the options that expire around 56 days, or 8 weeks away. Usually like
to let the options expire when the month comes by.
Execution
Sells Put options (on a market downswing) that have probability of being in-
the-money of ~5% (TOS estimates that by looking at the one-year standard
deviation of the underlying and assumes a Normal distribution, so 5% in-the-
money is 1.64 standard deviations away)
Sells Call options (on a market upswing) that have probability of being in-
the-money of ~10%. Tries to sell the Call options above strong market
resistance levels.
Reason behind the 5% vs. 10% probabilities is that “the market crashes down
, not up”, then down moves are quicker, so to be safe the Puts need to be
further out.
The positions are legged-in, i.e. the Puts and Calls are not sold at the
same time.
Sells more Puts than Calls.
Position
Usually commits 50%-70% of net liquidity so as to leave ammo to manage
positions.
Problem Management
If an option gets to 30% probability of being in-the-money, the position
needs to be actively managed.
Any costs associated with fixing the problem (e.g. losses due to closing the
position), will be made up by selling more options to get the premiums to
cover the losses.
For example, if the market moves up, she may sell more Call options that are
further out (i.e. higher strikes), or sell more Put options at higher
strikes (higher compared to the previously sold puts).
When the market drops and volatility spikes (i.e. she is losing money on the
Puts she sold), the fact that the strikes were far away (5% probability of
being ITM) gives her time to assess and adjust her positions.
When the Flash Crash of May 2010 happened, she closed her profitable
positions and sold options further away (October, November months) to get
more time to assess the situation.
大家看见牛人沮丧的不要泄气，看看后续报道：
https://www.thestreet.com/story/13593247/1/karen-the-supertrader-s-winning-
strategy-relied-on-fraud-sec-alleges.html | c******a
发帖数: 4400 | | c******a
发帖数: 4400 | | g*********9
发帖数: 1285 | 8 智商暴露贴。
【在 c******a 的大作中提到】
: 能不能信是另外一回事吧，一看样子就不对
| s*******d
发帖数: 3991 | 9 无意中在YouTube看到这位的采访。
狗了一遍，发现这个事还没有结束，
这儿有一些后续
https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2018/ia-5038.pdf
【在 a**********y 的大作中提到】
: 这个人叫karen bruton，去参加seminar，被人忽悠去念了博士，估计那种水货，读了
: 一年半拿了博士。
: 然后牛逼用一万刀起步，几年就变成四千多万美元。
: 当然，后面故事很精彩，大家看看
: 牛人介绍：
: Background
: Attended a $22K Investools PhD course that took 1.5 years.
: Traded stocks using technical analysis from 2002 to 2007 with $10K capital.
: Start non-directional trading using options from 2007 with ~$100K capital,
: and made 50%.
| h***1
发帖数: 2263 | 10 牛个P, 一看就是个骗子。博士和炒股都是骗来的。
【在 a**********y 的大作中提到】
: 这个人叫karen bruton，去参加seminar，被人忽悠去念了博士，估计那种水货，读了
: 一年半拿了博士。
: 然后牛逼用一万刀起步，几年就变成四千多万美元。
: 当然，后面故事很精彩，大家看看
: 牛人介绍：
: Background
: Attended a $22K Investools PhD course that took 1.5 years.
: Traded stocks using technical analysis from 2002 to 2007 with $10K capital.
: Start non-directional trading using options from 2007 with ~$100K capital,
: and made 50%.
| M*****3
发帖数: 288 | 11 10年前班上出过一个做options 的大牛叫optionshark 后来也叫PSP，是班上出了大傻
蛋以外被验证的大牛。我见过真人，参加过他的讲座。
他曾经实时操作给板油看如何把Corolla 变成camary ，好像是半个月就把一两万块翻
了一倍。大牛对options 的time value了解很深，据说是方向判断错了还可以挣钱。我
最服他的是一旦到某个点位就及时锁利，剩下的仓位就是free run。我后来试图学习做
options 无奈资质愚钝又赶上超级大跌，至此我就不再玩options
怀念一下大牛吧，送给大家大牛的两句名言：
草菇要有计划，不要一夜情搞成多夜情
不要以为你把JJ埋进泥土里你就强奸了地球。 | s*******d
发帖数: 3991 | 12 谢谢
PSP一年估计会发一两次贴，哪怕最近一两年
大傻蛋怎么样了？
【在 M*****3 的大作中提到】
: 10年前班上出过一个做options 的大牛叫optionshark 后来也叫PSP，是班上出了大傻
: 蛋以外被验证的大牛。我见过真人，参加过他的讲座。
: 他曾经实时操作给板油看如何把Corolla 变成camary ，好像是半个月就把一两万块翻
: 了一倍。大牛对options 的time value了解很深，据说是方向判断错了还可以挣钱。我
: 最服他的是一旦到某个点位就及时锁利，剩下的仓位就是free run。我后来试图学习做
: options 无奈资质愚钝又赶上超级大跌，至此我就不再玩options
: 怀念一下大牛吧，送给大家大牛的两句名言：
: 草菇要有计划，不要一夜情搞成多夜情
: 不要以为你把JJ埋进泥土里你就强奸了地球。
| m********3
发帖数: 2125 | 13 据说以前是大牛，成名后来这里偶尔发几个帖子都是反指。记得有一次说买TWM.
很多大牛都是因为看空被我从大牛名单里踢出去的：RIM, 杨百万，小小人，教授，psp
,银河，Stevejbs...
现在看空的还没被我踢出去的只有坏男孩了，他看空苹果和特斯拉的时机把握得不错，
但我这样的小散是不会跟的。
[在 Manof33 (糊涂佬) 的大作中提到：]
:蛋以外被验证的大牛。我见过真人，参加过他的讲座。
:他曾经实时操作给板油看如何把Corolla 变成camary ，好像是半个月就把一两万块翻
:了一倍。大牛对options 的time value了解很深，据说是方向判断错了还可以挣钱。
我最服他的是一旦到某个点位就及时锁利，剩下的仓位就是free run。我后来试图学习
做options 无奈资质愚钝又赶上超级大跌，至此我就不再玩options
:怀念一下大牛吧，送给大家大牛的两句名言：
:草菇要有计划，不要一夜情搞成多夜情
:不要以为你把JJ埋进泥土里你就强奸了地球。 | a****n
发帖数: 1 | 14 psp大牛是做波段的高手
【在 M*****3 的大作中提到】
: 10年前班上出过一个做options 的大牛叫optionshark 后来也叫PSP，是班上出了大傻
: 蛋以外被验证的大牛。我见过真人，参加过他的讲座。
: 他曾经实时操作给板油看如何把Corolla 变成camary ，好像是半个月就把一两万块翻
: 了一倍。大牛对options 的time value了解很深，据说是方向判断错了还可以挣钱。我
: 最服他的是一旦到某个点位就及时锁利，剩下的仓位就是free run。我后来试图学习做
: options 无奈资质愚钝又赶上超级大跌，至此我就不再玩options
: 怀念一下大牛吧，送给大家大牛的两句名言：
: 草菇要有计划，不要一夜情搞成多夜情
: 不要以为你把JJ埋进泥土里你就强奸了地球。
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