m*****n
发帖数: 1631 | 1 Nvidia to Beat FYQ1, But Watch out for AMD, Says Pacific Crest
By Tiernan Ray
Graphics chip titan Nvidia (NVDA), which is scheduled to report fiscal Q3
results tomorrow afternoon, after the closing bell, is on track to beat
consensus, writs Pacific Crest’s Michael McConnell, but he’s staying away
from the shares because the company has “peak GPU unit shares” and is set
to lose some of that to Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
With consensus of $1.62 billion in revenue and 45 cents in EPS for the
quarter, McConnell thinks that the company can turn in $1.68 billion and 53
cents.
That’s based on the fact his “conversations with desktop graphics card
manufacturers” indicate that “desktop GPU card unit sales tracked at the
high end of expectations, up 30%, quarter over quarter versus expectations
of a 20% to 30%,” thanks to the company’s new “Pascal” graphics chip
architecture that saw its first full quarter of availability in the quarter.
“NVIDIA desktop GPU card partners had record quarterly revenue in Q3,
driven by ASP expansion of 35% to 40% q/q,” he writes.
But, McConnell, who has a Sector Weight rating on the shares, writes “we
remain on the sidelines,” because AMD is going to take some share at
computer original equipment makers (OEM) 。
Nvidia shares today are down $1.09, or 1.5%, at $70.07.
November 9, 2016, 1:38 P.M. ET | m*****n
发帖数: 1631 | 2 这哥们是AMD粉
But, McConnell, who has a Sector Weight rating on the shares, writes “we
remain on the sidelines,” because AMD is going to take some share at
computer original equipment makers (OEM):
After shortages throughout Q2, supply chain conversations indicate that
supply of AMD’s Polaris GPUs (RX 480/470/460) in the channel significantly
improved last quarter. Despite the supply improvement, desktop graphics card
manufacturers noted very little shift in market share to Polaris (100 to
300 basis points) and away from NVIDA in the channel, despite NVIDIA’s
dominant market share position (70.1% unit share in the desktop discrete GPU
market in 2Q16). While share gains in the channel for AMD appear modest,
conversations with desktop graphics card manufacturers indicate that Polaris
is making market share inroads at PC OEMs. Desktop graphics card
manufacturers are citing two reasons for the strong Polaris sales into PC
OEMs: (1) Compelling price/ performance of the RX 480 ($199 to $239,
supports DirectX 12, VR-capable) for the mainstream market, the primary
segment for PC OEMs, and (2) PC OEM share deemphasis by NVIDIA (now less
than 10% of GPU sales), where ASPs, product margins and GPU attach rates are
significantly lower than the channel. Given design-win activity for 2H16,
desktop graphics card manufacturers expect AMD unit share at PC OEMs to
increase to 70%-75% in 4Q16 from 55%-65% in 2Q16/3Q16. | p**f
发帖数: 3549 | | m*****n
发帖数: 1631 | 4 翻翻更前面的记录，这位Michael McConnell专门和NVDA过不去
【在 p**f 的大作中提到】
: 文科生误国。
: 这年头还有人相信评级机构。。。。
| j*****y
发帖数: 1916 | 5 感觉NVDA后面没有街上的大佬罩着。
像AMZN, MSFT这些股票就算被人做空，也是控制在5%以内。
NVDA每次，轻轻松松被人做空7-10%的，感觉都是没有势力的。不像中央军，跟杂牌部
队一样，得不到补给。
话说，高盛不是坚定持有NVDA吗，难道放任NVDA随风飘摇？ | m*****n
发帖数: 1631 | 6 NVDA是好股，非常出色的好股，长期玩家都愿意做它股东。问题是它的价钱被短期玩家
炒的太高了，玩长期的进场意愿不高。当股票下跌的时候，会吸引长期玩家进场，跌得
越多，越多的长期玩家进场。
【在 j*****y 的大作中提到】
: 感觉NVDA后面没有街上的大佬罩着。
: 像AMZN, MSFT这些股票就算被人做空，也是控制在5%以内。
: NVDA每次，轻轻松松被人做空7-10%的，感觉都是没有势力的。不像中央军，跟杂牌部
: 队一样，得不到补给。
: 话说，高盛不是坚定持有NVDA吗，难道放任NVDA随风飘摇？
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