k**s
发帖数: 53 | 1 Al Brooks每天写的Emini(SP500 future) blog:
https://brookstradingcourse.com/price-action-trading-blog/
买了course的可以看到实时的更新。没买的盘后解禁后也可以看。
新人应该看这些真正的trader的预测。股版这些所谓大牛的预测都是笑话。 | C*******r
发帖数: 10345 | 2 这个自然，其实一个比较专业的都比业余版友强，比如这个
Bear Hunt FOMO Melt-Up
By Kevin Cook
March 11, 2016 2:40 PM
have a confession: I have been a stock market bear this year. “But I had a
great reason,” you can hear me say.
My reason was the Earnings Recession. In the video that accompanies this
article, I show the update on forward estimates that shows negative 9.4% “
growth” for the first quarter and minus 4% for Q2. Even when you strip out
Energy sector data, negative 4.5% earnings “growth” is the result for Q1.
I have another confession: I saw the “bear hunt” relief rally coming after
the February low at S&P 1810 and I plotted the path all the way to 2040,
but I wasn’t net long for the ride. Talk about fumbling an interception
inside your own 20-yard line.
I even accurately predicted what is happening now: FOMO, which stands for
the “fear of missing out.” When the S&P popped above 1900 last month, dips
started to be aggressively bought. Why? Because long-only equity fund
managers could not afford to still hold record cash allocations if the
market were to break out above 1950 and head for 2000. More on this in a
moment.
A Big “What If?”
The video that accompanies this article also shows my “valuation re-set”
targets for the S&P 500 after we break the February lows, assuming I am
correct that we do. Mind you, I haven’t been calling for a full-on bear
market where stocks go down 30-40%.
I’m even inclined to be less bearish than Scott Minerd of Guggenheim who is
calling for nearly a 25% re-set toward S&P 1600 , especially if the Oil
Bear lays waste to energy companies, their junk bonds, and a few banks.
I don’t think that happens because the economy is chugging along just fine,
like a “plow horse” as Brian Wesbury has called it for years. Slow and
steady wins the day because it keeps the booms and busts away.
But as a stock market bear, I decided earlier this week that I must “sleep
with one eye open” on the bull case. And the biggest argument against my
Earnings Recession thesis is that it is nearly discounted in current
valuations.
In other words, global investors can see past the earnings decline and
imagine the worst as ending soon. That’s the big “what if” that every
investor must consider right now.
While I have said that forward earnings estimates are "still in jeopardy" of
being revised downward with each passing week, it’s possible that the
momentum of that slide has stalled. And therefore, earnings estimates that
stop going down, while oil keeps going up, could give solace to stock market
bulls, and nightmares to the bears.
FOMO Melt-Up to 2040
Next week the Federal Reserve will probably not raise interest rates. But
since it is a big quarterly quant-fest, Janet Yellen and her fellow
economists will be armed with fresh economic projections and a wonderfully-
useful “dot plot” to tell us what FOMC members think about the path and
pace of rate hikes.
Yellen will also give a press conference where she will be pressed for more
answers about what all the FOMC projections could possibly mean. Are you
saying only 2 rate hikes this year? Why are you so optimistic/pessimistic
about the economy? Why are you so worried/not worried about oil, China,
European banks, the dollar, etc.?
In the midst of all this known information and things to worry about, there
’s a pretty good chance that the S&P will quietly trade all the way up to
2040 and higher as it fills the gap down on the first trading day of the
year. One big driver of this, besides stock bears running in panic back to
their caves, will be what traders like to call FOMO, or the “fear of
missing out.”
Urban Carmel at the Fat Pitch Blog cited some stats last week that really
surprised me. As of early February data, “Equity fund flows have been
negative 13 of the past 14 weeks, longer than any time during the 2007-09
bear market.”
He also noted that the March-May window of 2008 had one week with $20
billion in net inflows. That’s what can happen during parabolic bear market
rallies. Or a rally that is simply catching too many long-only equity fund
managers flat-footed and under-exposed.
To borrow a line or two from that 80’s two-hit-wonder Greg Kihn, our love
for stocks may be in jeopardy, but the breakup song is being played too
early.
Kevin Cook is a Senior Stock Strategist for Zacks Investment Research where
he runs the Tactical Trader service. | p*****d
发帖数: 560 | 3 又是一个骗子. 还是个搞DT的.
骗子搞高杠杆ES和期货能赚钱, 就不开班收学费了.
收学费教授DT高杠杆ES的,都是笑话和骗子.
在人格和道德上, 股版免费大牛甩他们十条街。
【在 k**s 的大作中提到】
: Al Brooks每天写的Emini(SP500 future) blog:
: https://brookstradingcourse.com/price-action-trading-blog/
: 买了course的可以看到实时的更新。没买的盘后解禁后也可以看。
: 新人应该看这些真正的trader的预测。股版这些所谓大牛的预测都是笑话。
| k**s
发帖数: 53 | 4 呵呵。真有坚信股版免费大牛的。
这个版我看了很久，只有CRH比较靠谱，知道跟着市场方向操作，有错就改。其他“大
牛”就只有呵呵了。
【在 p*****d 的大作中提到】
: 又是一个骗子. 还是个搞DT的.
: 骗子搞高杠杆ES和期货能赚钱, 就不开班收学费了.
: 收学费教授DT高杠杆ES的,都是笑话和骗子.
: 在人格和道德上, 股版免费大牛甩他们十条街。
| t*****e
发帖数: 380 | | p*****d
发帖数: 560 | 6 呵呵，你"看了很久", 才这么点见识，还坚信交钱的“大牛”。。。
那。。。你在这个版这么久， 看来你是白虎了。
【在 k**s 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵。真有坚信股版免费大牛的。
: 这个版我看了很久，只有CRH比较靠谱，知道跟着市场方向操作，有错就改。其他“大
: 牛”就只有呵呵了。
| p*****d
发帖数: 560 | 7 尼玛，打错了，不是白虎是-白混，拼音少打了个n。
呵呵
【在 p*****d 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵，你"看了很久", 才这么点见识，还坚信交钱的“大牛”。。。
: 那。。。你在这个版这么久， 看来你是白虎了。
| d**********r
发帖数: 24123 | 8 Al Brooks 居然还有Blog，我最近正在读他的书 | C*****5
发帖数: 8812 | 9 谢谢。不过我不敢称大牛。再坚持学习几年也许可以。现在万万是不敢领受的。
但我也绝对不是笑话。谁敢小瞧我小心被打脸。
【在 k**s 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵。真有坚信股版免费大牛的。
: 这个版我看了很久，只有CRH比较靠谱，知道跟着市场方向操作，有错就改。其他“大
: 牛”就只有呵呵了。
| M***n
发帖数: 5815 | 10 见识都是需要慢慢长的。这位朋友是新朋友，难免看法有不全面的。他分享的这个链接
，如果在盘后看，是免费的。虽然不是实时，应该也会观之受益。
【在 p*****d 的大作中提到】
: 呵呵，你"看了很久", 才这么点见识，还坚信交钱的“大牛”。。。
: 那。。。你在这个版这么久， 看来你是白虎了。
| D*********e
发帖数: 646 | 11 这不就是民工的武林秘籍授业恩师么
【在 k**s 的大作中提到】
: Al Brooks每天写的Emini(SP500 future) blog:
: https://brookstradingcourse.com/price-action-trading-blog/
: 买了course的可以看到实时的更新。没买的盘后解禁后也可以看。
: 新人应该看这些真正的trader的预测。股版这些所谓大牛的预测都是笑话。
| c*******v
发帖数: 2599 | 12 这个earning的数字，以及去除能源板块的数字，等各数字，
我今年1月初就讲过了。你找我的旧帖就可以看到。
这些写文章的人，花的时间，以及信息来源应该比我们普通人广泛。
要说水平和能力，我认为很一般。
a
out
【在 C*******r 的大作中提到】
: 这个自然，其实一个比较专业的都比业余版友强，比如这个
: Bear Hunt FOMO Melt-Up
: By Kevin Cook
: March 11, 2016 2:40 PM
: have a confession: I have been a stock market bear this year. “But I had a
: great reason,” you can hear me say.
: My reason was the Earnings Recession. In the video that accompanies this
: article, I show the update on forward estimates that shows negative 9.4% “
: growth” for the first quarter and minus 4% for Q2. Even when you strip out
: Energy sector data, negative 4.5% earnings “growth” is the result for Q1.
| M***n
发帖数: 5815 | 13 这儿有一个。我印象里，还有一个。
@ [bssd]重要数字 - 作者 guvest
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Stock/36524387.html
【在 c*******v 的大作中提到】
: 这个earning的数字，以及去除能源板块的数字，等各数字，
: 我今年1月初就讲过了。你找我的旧帖就可以看到。
: 这些写文章的人，花的时间，以及信息来源应该比我们普通人广泛。
: 要说水平和能力，我认为很一般。
:
: a
: out
| g*******i
发帖数: 191 | |
|
