e*********r
发帖数: 337 | 1 just a few random thoughts:
What to watch out for in the coming earnings report:
1. iphone unit number -- my take, it's likely to disappoint. If it does,
you will see knee jerk reactions immediately to the downside. The street is
fixated on this single number of recent as the "apple is a one-product
company" meme has become so powerful (yet ignoring the fact that even apple
’s non-iphone business makes more money than google does). However, any
balanced analysis should look beyond the # of iphone sold, and factoring in
the ASP and Margin. For instance, in the previous quarter, the iphone unit #
missed by one million, but revenue and EPS still beaten the estimates,
which clearly demonstrated Apple's pricing power in spite of the flooding of
cheap phones from the Andriod camp into the market.
2. China sales number -- if Nike's earning report is any indication, Apple
should be fine in China. As a side note, the recent turmoil in Chinese stock
market may have done real damage to consumer spending on big-ticket items (
e.g. house, automobile, vacation overseas), but I personally believe it
might have actually helped iphone sales in China because if a house or a car
is out of reach, getting an iphone seems like a reasonable consolation
purchase to make up for the disappointment.
3. Apple watch sales -- look out for the revenue number under the "other
category". Apple Watch is a product category could provide meaningful growth
in the near term.
3. Share buyback -- this will be telling how apple management themselves
feel about the future of the company. In the previous quarter, that number
is 19 billion at an average buyback price of $128. Note that the overall
average buyback price is slightly below $90 since the buyback program was
established. I would be shocked if Apple had not bought back its shares
aggressively in the past three months. Seeing a bunch articles based on
technical analysis calling for AAPL to move down to $60 is like witnessing
pure idiocy.
4. Guidance --- Apple was known to give absurdly low guidance in the past.
That has changed since Cook took over. Nevertheless, the guidance is still
conservative nowadays. With new hardwares (apple TV, ipad-pro, etc.)
expected, as well as the approaching of holiday seasons, any upside hinted
in the guidance (esp. considering against last year's tough comp) should be
taken as a huge positive.
Bottom line:
1. Apple the company: so long as apple has the reputation and the resource($
$$) to attract the best talent in silicon valley, innovation will be alive
and well and Apple is going to be fine. Product wise, iphone has no real
competition because all iphones carry an Apple logo only. If Apple's decades
-long Mac business is any indication, iphone is unlikely to be commoditized
any time soon.
2. AAPL the stock: even if Apple stops growing (which is unlikely), it is
still set to make $50 billion dollars a year. At current market cap,
factoring in the cash it holds, Apple can basically buy itself back within
10 years. The way I looked at is this --- I will invest, in a heartbeat, in
any company that makes my money back in ten years and then prints free cash
in the years beyond. | B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 2 100% agree. There may be a knee-jerk reaction when AAPL releases
disappointing earnings, which is when I will add to my holdings as an
investment for at least 10 year horizon. | e*********r
发帖数: 337 | 3 just a few random thoughts:
What to watch out for in the coming earnings report:
1. iphone unit number -- my take, it's likely to disappoint. If it does,
you will see knee jerk reactions immediately to the downside. The street is
fixated on this single number of recent as the "apple is a one-product
company" meme has become so powerful (yet ignoring the fact that even apple
’s non-iphone business makes more money than google does). However, any
balanced analysis should look beyond the # of iphone sold, and factoring in
the ASP and Margin. For instance, in the previous quarter, the iphone unit #
missed by one million, but revenue and EPS still beaten the estimates,
which clearly demonstrated Apple's pricing power in spite of the flooding of
cheap phones from the Andriod camp into the market.
2. China sales number -- if Nike's earning report is any indication, Apple
should be fine in China. As a side note, the recent turmoil in Chinese stock
market may have done real damage to consumer spending on big-ticket items (
e.g. house, automobile, vacation overseas), but I personally believe it
might have actually helped iphone sales in China because if a house or a car
is out of reach, getting an iphone seems like a reasonable consolation
purchase to make up for the disappointment.
3. Apple watch sales -- look out for the revenue number under the "other
category". Apple Watch is a product category could provide meaningful growth
in the near term.
3. Share buyback -- this will be telling how apple management themselves
feel about the future of the company. In the previous quarter, that number
is 19 billion at an average buyback price of $128. Note that the overall
average buyback price is slightly below $90 since the buyback program was
established. I would be shocked if Apple had not bought back its shares
aggressively in the past three months. Seeing a bunch articles based on
technical analysis calling for AAPL to move down to $60 is like witnessing
pure idiocy.
4. Guidance --- Apple was known to give absurdly low guidance in the past.
That has changed since Cook took over. Nevertheless, the guidance is still
conservative nowadays. With new hardwares (apple TV, ipad-pro, etc.)
expected, as well as the approaching of holiday seasons, any upside hinted
in the guidance (esp. considering against last year's tough comp) should be
taken as a huge positive.
Bottom line:
1. Apple the company: so long as apple has the reputation and the resource($
$$) to attract the best talent in silicon valley, innovation will be alive
and well and Apple is going to be fine. Product wise, iphone has no real
competition because all iphones carry an Apple logo only. If Apple's decades
-long Mac business is any indication, iphone is unlikely to be commoditized
any time soon.
2. AAPL the stock: even if Apple stops growing (which is unlikely), it is
still set to make $50 billion dollars a year. At current market cap,
factoring in the cash it holds, Apple can basically buy itself back within
10 years. The way I looked at is this --- I will invest, in a heartbeat, in
any company that makes my money back in ten years and then prints free cash
in the years beyond. | B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 4 100% agree. There may be a knee-jerk reaction when AAPL releases
disappointing earnings, which is when I will add to my holdings as an
investment for at least 10 year horizon. | t*********t
发帖数: 1058 | 5 Nice analysis! Wish I had seen it earlier. | s*******0
发帖数: 511 | 6 Nice! Thanks for sharing! | l********9
发帖数: 31 | 7 NND,又是置顶打脸啊，昨天才置顶，AAPL今天就跌成屎了，拜托各位大牛以后别再乱讲
一通了。置顶都快成反指指标了。 | B******e
发帖数: 16928 | 8 作为long-term investor,这种short-term fluctuation其实不用太在意。
【在 l********9 的大作中提到】
: NND,又是置顶打脸啊，昨天才置顶，AAPL今天就跌成屎了，拜托各位大牛以后别再乱讲
: 一通了。置顶都快成反指指标了。
| l********9
发帖数: 31 | 9 昨天看了置顶才买的，今天就跌，你说气不气！今天买就好了，以后和这些伪大牛的评
价反着操作就行了
[在 Bernanke (Ben) 的大作中提到：]
：作为long-term investor,这种short-term fluctuation其实不用太在意。
：【 在 laboys2009 (LA Boy) 的大作中提到: 】
：........... | e*********r
发帖数: 337 | 10 did you realize the original post was published in OCT?
l am pretty much sure you were busy buying GPRO yesterday, still have cash
left to buy AAPL? It's hard for me to believe a Mr. Fisher's cult following
will act on my advice anyway.
Shall I say.... liar liar pants on fire?
【在 l********9 的大作中提到】
: 昨天看了置顶才买的，今天就跌，你说气不气！今天买就好了，以后和这些伪大牛的评
: 价反着操作就行了
: [在 Bernanke (Ben) 的大作中提到：]
: ：作为long-term investor,这种short-term fluctuation其实不用太在意。
: ：【 在 laboys2009 (LA Boy) 的大作中提到: 】
: ：...........
| | | l********9
发帖数: 31 | 11 我是说你的AAPL和渔人与gpro 有何关系，干嘛把人家牵扯进来，你这人就一心里有巨
大阴影的hater. | e*********r
发帖数: 337 | 12 short term memory loss?
-------------------------------------------
发信人: laboys2009 (LA Boy), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: GPRO(狗扑肉)之Fisherman's report（已更新）
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Nov 9 13:41:18 2015, 美东)
渔夫大牛威武！观察了一阵子你的操作了，每次买卖基本都喊得很精准。古板已经很久
没见如此准的神来之笔了，可惜之前没有跟上错过了不少swing的机会，不知何时再是
好的上车机会，往大牛赐教，不要让一颗老鼠屎坏了心情。
-----------------------------------------------
发信人: laboys2009 (LA Boy), 信区: Stock
标 题: Re: 【应邀征文】狗铺肉看热闹也要会看
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Mon Nov 9 11:33:59 2015, 美东)
you
还没见过这种极品，人家预测对了，自己错了还好意思跳出来狂踩人家的，你是自取其
辱吧，好歹也等gpro 跌了你再说也多点说服力啊。赶快洗洗睡了吧
【在 e*********r 的大作中提到】
: did you realize the original post was published in OCT?
: l am pretty much sure you were busy buying GPRO yesterday, still have cash
: left to buy AAPL? It's hard for me to believe a Mr. Fisher's cult following
: will act on my advice anyway.
: Shall I say.... liar liar pants on fire?
| l********9
发帖数: 31 | 13 我们买gpro关你屁事！狗拿耗子多管闲事。你这人心胸太狭隘了，小小人机构出来的吧？
[在 eddiebutter (eddiebutter) 的大作中提到：]
：short term memory loss?
：
：........... | e*********r
发帖数: 337 | 14 look... guess whose pants are on fire now?
吧？
【在 l********9 的大作中提到】
: 我们买gpro关你屁事！狗拿耗子多管闲事。你这人心胸太狭隘了，小小人机构出来的吧？
: [在 eddiebutter (eddiebutter) 的大作中提到：]
: ：short term memory loss?
: ：
: ：...........
| l********9
发帖数: 31 | 15 You don't even have pants to wear!
[在 eddiebutter (eddiebutter) 的大作中提到：]
：look... guess whose pants are on fire now?
：
：........... | y***r
发帖数: 16594 | 16 顶顶，最喜欢看吵架了。
炒股没意思。
following
【在 e*********r 的大作中提到】
: did you realize the original post was published in OCT?
: l am pretty much sure you were busy buying GPRO yesterday, still have cash
: left to buy AAPL? It's hard for me to believe a Mr. Fisher's cult following
: will act on my advice anyway.
: Shall I say.... liar liar pants on fire?
| e*********r
发帖数: 337 | 17 要是感兴趣，顺便也可以观摩laboys2009/MoneyGuy这奇葩如何熟练使用马甲，编造谎
言，谎言戳穿后如何无底线厚皮胡搅蛮缠。
【在 y***r 的大作中提到】
: 顶顶，最喜欢看吵架了。
: 炒股没意思。
:
: following
|
|
