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Stock版 - Apple's Earnings Today
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相关话题的讨论汇总
话题: apple话题: china话题: billion话题: guidance话题: aapl
进入Stock版参与讨论
1 (共1页)
e*********r
发帖数: 337
1
APPLE 2015 Q4 EARNINGS REPORT ESTIMATES
Numbers that you should pay attention to:
EPS: $1.88
Revenue: $51 billion
Guidance: $77 billion
Gross margin: 39.7%
Iphone: 48 million
Ipad: 10.5 million
Mac: 5.5 million
China Revenue:
“Other products” category revenue (including Apple watch):
Share buybacks:
MY TAKE:
- EPS will beat. (shares count reduction helps here)
- Revenue will beat. (Note: apple’s own guidance is $49-51 billion, it
almost always beat even the high end of its own target)
-Guidance for Q1 2016: this is the tough one… same quarter last year, Apple
delivered $74.6 billion vs. its own projection of $66.5 billion. So it’s
going to be a tough tough comp. this time around. Any guidance materially
below the street expectation of $77 billion will spell disaster for AAPL the
stock.
- Gross Margin not that relevant here. S cycle typically brings higher
margin, and street has no concern over margin compression as opposed to the
2012-2013 time period.
- iphone unit # very likely disappoint due to the simple fact that the
quarter ends on September 26, meaning only two days of new iphone sales
could be counted towards the quarter vs. 9 days of new iphone sale same
quarter last year.
- Ipad unit number is not that important anymore… a beat will be nice but
nothing to get excited over.
- Mac unit # should show strength, holding up relatively well vs. overall PC
market
- China revenue. Iphone 6 launch in China was delayed last year, so yoy comp
. (vs. $5.8 billion) is not that meaningful, but expect Apple to taunt the
100+% yoy growth anyway. qoq comp. is more meaningful --- previous quarter’
s China revenue was $13.2 billion.
- “Other products” category is all about the Apple watch… because apple
does not break down the numbers, only qoq comp can give you a hint how apple
watch has been doing. Previous quarter’s number is $2.64 billion. Apple
watch ASP is around $500. From those numbers you will be able to back out a
guesstimate of how many
MORE watches apple sold in Q4 compared to Q3.
- Share buybacks: Apple did $19 billion in Q3. It will be interesting to see
Apple management’s reaction to the substantial share price drop that has
occurred in Q4.
If you can only pay attention to 1 number --- Guidance for Q1 2016 is the
one. The Guidance will dictate AAPL price movement in the next 3-6 months.
If you care about AAPL share price immediately following the earnings
announcement --- iphone unit sold is all that matters
If you want to know whether the stock price drop in Q4 of recent is
warranted --- pay attention to China revenue and Apple watch sales numbers.
Perceived weak watch sales and later China concerns were the culprits behind
the sell-off.
Listen to the earnings conference call, and then make up your OWN mind on
AAPL. As for myself, I will stay long until my conviction in Apple is shaken
.
v****r
发帖数: 353
2

[在 eddiebutter (eddiebutter) 的大作中提到:]
:APPLE 2015 Q4 EARNINGS REPORT ESTIMATES

:...........
s*******c
发帖数: 184
3
说的好!
c**********i
发帖数: 376
4
这FA很专业啊,大牛在哪里高就?
y********n
发帖数: 4452
5
虽然说LZ写得非常有水平,可是想问一下LZ自己有买卖股票吗? 有些analyst只分析不
交易。
e*********r
发帖数: 337
6
To clarify... I consider myself an investor, not a trader. I do have a
substantial portion of my portfolio in AAPL; I have been and still am
holding it for the long haul, which is why I pay close attention to the
fundamentals of the company while using my best judgement to filter out all
the noises out there.
Nonetheless, you should take my opinion on AAPL with a giant grain of salt
because investing is personal and our perspectives on things could differ
even if we were in the same stock.
T*R
发帖数: 36302
7
简单一点,今天盘后涨还是跌?
g****t
发帖数: 31659
8
多半是跌。准备好钱,后天捞吧。

【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
: 简单一点,今天盘后涨还是跌?
d*******g
发帖数: 114
9
Very good analysis.
And indeed, iPhone # is the only thing matters which is likely to disappoint
the street. Having been an AAPL holder, it is a tough call this quarter.
After experienced the 40% retreat in 2013, I will get off the train for now
as we don't know how the street will treat Apple this time. It is not a
fair game, Amazon can barely make profits, but now it worth about half of
Apple.
B******e
发帖数: 16928
10
跌,不过我不会赌太多,因为我没太大把握,500块以内。

【在 T*R 的大作中提到】
: 简单一点,今天盘后涨还是跌?
相关主题
yahoo erning 2013 q2SODA大跌
Citigroup beats on earnings, misses on revenues【提问】ER中的Consensus 数值怎么算出来的
今天奶飞要是收350 我就rimm怎么样了
进入Stock版参与讨论
a*******o
发帖数: 299
11
4股?

【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
: 跌,不过我不会赌太多,因为我没太大把握,500块以内。
B******e
发帖数: 16928
12
我只赌option.

【在 a*******o 的大作中提到】
: 4股?
g****t
发帖数: 31659
13
amzn现金流很健康的。

disappoint
now

【在 d*******g 的大作中提到】
: Very good analysis.
: And indeed, iPhone # is the only thing matters which is likely to disappoint
: the street. Having been an AAPL holder, it is a tough call this quarter.
: After experienced the 40% retreat in 2013, I will get off the train for now
: as we don't know how the street will treat Apple this time. It is not a
: fair game, Amazon can barely make profits, but now it worth about half of
: Apple.

d*******g
发帖数: 114
14
For amazon, at around 300 billion, it is not about if financial conditions
are healthy, it is about if there is a bubble.
[在 guvest (我爱你老婆Anna) 的大作中提到:]
:amzn现金流很健康的。
:【 在 dbearwang (dbear) 的大作中提到: 】
:...........
y********n
发帖数: 4452
15
谢谢回复。你说的非常好。策略不同即使hold同一个股票,影响也是不一样的。希望可
以看到更多你在股市里的想法。
还想问一下,除了股票长期投资外,你有做任何短期或中期股票/大众商品/futures/
options的策略吗?

all

【在 e*********r 的大作中提到】
: To clarify... I consider myself an investor, not a trader. I do have a
: substantial portion of my portfolio in AAPL; I have been and still am
: holding it for the long haul, which is why I pay close attention to the
: fundamentals of the company while using my best judgement to filter out all
: the noises out there.
: Nonetheless, you should take my opinion on AAPL with a giant grain of salt
: because investing is personal and our perspectives on things could differ
: even if we were in the same stock.

x****y
发帖数: 1853
16
Great!
In the end, guidance on future iphone sales in China is the key factor.
But TG has a lot of ways to limit iphone sales if they want to, as a
retailiation to recent US Navy aggression in South China sea. Same reason
Boeing could lose its recent contract signed by Xi.

【在 e*********r 的大作中提到】
: APPLE 2015 Q4 EARNINGS REPORT ESTIMATES
: Numbers that you should pay attention to:
: EPS: $1.88
: Revenue: $51 billion
: Guidance: $77 billion
: Gross margin: 39.7%
: Iphone: 48 million
: Ipad: 10.5 million
: Mac: 5.5 million
: China Revenue:

f*********9
发帖数: 1986
17
买了本周的122 call,赌一把了。
B******e
发帖数: 16928
18
有点risky

【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
: 买了本周的122 call,赌一把了。
f*********9
发帖数: 1986
19

富贵险中求,no risk no gain! 几百块钱而已,还输的起。

【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
: 有点risky
B******e
发帖数: 16928
20
今天搞了点gopro的call

【在 f*********9 的大作中提到】
:
: 富贵险中求,no risk no gain! 几百块钱而已,还输的起。

f*********9
发帖数: 1986
21

hehe, by tomorrow, we both will be at least a couple thousands richer than
today

【在 B******e 的大作中提到】
: 今天搞了点gopro的call
1 (共1页)
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话题: apple话题: china话题: billion话题: guidance话题: aapl