c***q
发帖数: 667 | | v****r
发帖数: 353 | 2 短线不好说。我不看图，不做技术分析。没办法，不懂。
中长线的话我继续看多。
在amzn的价值上投资者的分歧非常大。
看涨的觉得他家业务前景乐观、成长空间巨大、公司迟早会大面积盈利。
看跌的则觉得他家是瞎折腾不赚钱、潜在竞争激烈、公司价值离谱。
这种分歧不是一时半会可以调和的，除非amzn迅速证明其盈利能力。
但是他家目前是在加大投资、抢地盘阶段，战略重点不在短期盈利上。
由于这种分歧的存在，短期内股价上上下下都是很正常的，也无从预测。
尤其ER以后各方对公司的表现理解不一，交易手法和策略的调整会直接影响股价。
但是中长线来看，公司的成功取决于持续的营收增长和逐渐的利润回归。
amzn是个非常有远见的公司。
他们目前在各方面大手笔投资、不惜牺牲短期利润，
一是为了抢占市场（如在线零售、kindle fire，prime，video content），
二是为控制远期成本、增加长期利润做铺垫（如加建中转发货中心，云计算基础建设）。
在线零售方面，全球电子商务会持续增长。
amzn作为最大的在线零售商自然会从中获益，这点不用担心。
他家的战略重点应该是放在如何提高市场份额。
这一点主要通过提供合理价格（未必是最低价格），
提高服务水准和用户体验，从而培养客户忠诚度来实现。
而目前他家的prime服务，包括当天送货，正是其他商家无法匹敌的。
另外，合理的运费，便利的退货条款也是吸引客户的重要手段。
最后不得不说的是，amzn网站上海量的产品评价，
更是在线购物者依赖的重要资源。
他不可能期望购物者每样东西都从他家购买，
但要实现大多数购物者在决定买哪个牌子、哪个型号、
以及去哪里购买前都先去他的网站上看看，则不应算是一种奢望。
而这吸引客流的宝藏，是经年累月积攒起来的，其他竞争对手只能望尘莫及。
先到这里吧。再往下一天一夜也说不完
作为消费者和普通投资者，amzn的宏图伟略我们只能管中窥豹，略见冰山一角。
我自己的看法是，往前五年、往后五年是amzn发展最重要的十年，
也可能是股票回报最好的十年。
所以对amzn我的投资策略是长期缓慢的加仓。
他升，我average up，他跌，我加倍增持。大致相当于401K的买法。
追求长期增值，无视短线波动。
最后，只求贝索斯身体健康，莫步乔帮主的后尘就好。
【在 c***q 的大作中提到】
: 谢谢。
| p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 3 I disagree in 2 areas.
* Retail business.
Since Amazon is forced to collect sales tax, its price advantage is gone.
These days you notice a lot of ebay daily deals are partner with e-tailers
which don't collect sales tax. At the end the final price is lower than
Amazon. Consumers have no loyalty to any specific retails, only have loyalty
to the price as long as the reputation of the stores are OK. So, now many
smaller retailers have pricing advantage, people in CA these days buy
products from B&H, JR, Adorama and buydig. Consumers in the east buy from
newegg.com and buy.com because they don't collect sales tax.
Also don't count out the competition from local retails. They actually may
not have higher cost than Amazon after Amazon started collecting tax. They
can make money from service related business, such as Tire Center in Costco
and Walmart. They also can sell food products to make money. All online
retailers also are facing the shipping cost going up
problem because FedEx, and UPS keep raising price.
Just image if Amazon can get same margin as Costco, Walmart and Target
, how much retail business will be lost ?
* Kindle Devices. Amazon trying to use the devices to push its ad and keep
customers to buy products from its online stores. This looks a good idea,
but at the end the product price is still the key. If your price is higher,
consumers will shop somewhere else.
The only areas that Amazon is good is its cloud computing, but also the
competition is coming, and this business alone cannot justify its high stock
price.
Anyhow, the downside risk for Amazon is huge. Apple just did 38-39%
correction. Considering Amazon cannot make much money, far less than Apple.
Someone it will go down much more than just 38-39% once its growth story is
gone.
I actually think the 1st Q of 2013, its revenue growth will below 20%. Whole
2013 year probably only around 15%. If this is the case, many growth funds
will reduce their hold on AMZN because it's no longer considered as a growth
stock. | r****c
发帖数: 2585 | 4 他们目前在各方面大手笔投资、不惜牺牲短期利润，
一是为了抢占市场（如在线零售、kindle fire，prime，video content），
二是为控制远期成本、增加长期利润做铺垫（如加建中转发货中心，云计算基础建设）。
因为亚马逊的股价缘故，他们只能靠这个模式来支持这个股价。如果他们杀鸡取卵的话
，一年最多也只会获得那么多（《3B）那大家都知道了，你即使最好的情况也是40，50
几倍的EPS
然后股价就像那时候的NFLX | v****r
发帖数: 353 | 5 I think people over-estimated the impact of sales tax.
Amazon started charging sales tax in CA in September.
Did its Q4 revenue decrease year-over-year?
No, because the sales tax impact was easily offset by the overall increase
in the online retail market.
Most amazon customers see it as a one-stop shopping site. The merchandises
it carries is far beyond those of B&H, JR, Adorama, buydig, newegg, buy.com
combined (I know these are reputable retailers and I have bought things from
each one of them, many times). In fact, I would say only 10% of what I
buy from amazon is available on any of these websites, yet in most cases
I won't buy from them because of their slower shipping, inconvenient order
cancellation and return, etc. Not to mention that half of the chance the
prices on these websites are still higher than amazon prices, with sales tax
.
Some people won't bother comparing prices across websites. I personally do,
but unless the price difference is greater than 5%, I will still buy from
amazon, for its unmatched customer experience.
As to the ads on kindles, it's neglible. I don't think amazon even counts on
these revenues.
Lastly, amazon is a completely different story from Apple. Apple builds
products, great products, with high margin. But it's easy for others to
learn and catch up. Amazon is building a platform that can sell and deliver
anything (physical or digital) to customers, in the most efficient and
effective way. More importantly, this platform costs many years and billions
of dollars to build. At this point no other company has both the patience
and deep pocket to do this in order to compete with amazon. You may see
amazon as one of the many online retailers,but in my personal view, amazon
is transforming e-commerce in a innovative and disruptive way that's
fundamentally different from the norm.
.
loyalty
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: I disagree in 2 areas.
: * Retail business.
: Since Amazon is forced to collect sales tax, its price advantage is gone.
: These days you notice a lot of ebay daily deals are partner with e-tailers
: which don't collect sales tax. At the end the final price is lower than
: Amazon. Consumers have no loyalty to any specific retails, only have loyalty
: to the price as long as the reputation of the stores are OK. So, now many
: smaller retailers have pricing advantage, people in CA these days buy
: products from B&H, JR, Adorama and buydig. Consumers in the east buy from
: newegg.com and buy.com because they don't collect sales tax.
| p*********r
发帖数: 4593 | 6 I guess you didn't see the detail break down data.
I remember I saw a report mentioned that revenue is dropping
year over year in the last Q for all the states having sales tax(may be even
in the US). The main growth in the retail is its international
business.
merchandises
com
from
【在 v****r 的大作中提到】
: I think people over-estimated the impact of sales tax.
: Amazon started charging sales tax in CA in September.
: Did its Q4 revenue decrease year-over-year?
: No, because the sales tax impact was easily offset by the overall increase
: in the online retail market.
: Most amazon customers see it as a one-stop shopping site. The merchandises
: it carries is far beyond those of B&H, JR, Adorama, buydig, newegg, buy.com
: combined (I know these are reputable retailers and I have bought things from
: each one of them, many times). In fact, I would say only 10% of what I
: buy from amazon is available on any of these websites, yet in most cases
| v****r
发帖数: 353 | 7 You are right, I have not got a chance to.
I was planning to take a glance at their recently released 10-K.
BTW, here is another amazing thing about this company,
they file their 10-K within a month from year-end.
I have not seen any big companies do that.
It may not mean anything,
other than that amzn is a company that's different from the others :)
even
【在 p*********r 的大作中提到】
: I guess you didn't see the detail break down data.
: I remember I saw a report mentioned that revenue is dropping
: year over year in the last Q for all the states having sales tax(may be even
: in the US). The main growth in the retail is its international
: business.
:
: merchandises
: com
: from
|
|
