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发帖数: 16371 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Apple 讨论区 】
发信人: wavelets02 (消失), 信区: Apple
标 题: Apple: Street Debates iPhone’s Role in U.S. Smartphone ‘C
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Apr 24 14:27:28 2012, 美东)
As Apple‘s (AAPL) shares sag $9.30, or 1.6%, to $562.40 following results
from AT&T (T) this morning that saw fewer iPhone activations last quarter
than some expected, and with only hours to go till Cupertino’s fiscal Q2
report tonight, the Street is out in force debating the implications.
AT&T activated 43% fewer iPhones in the quarter than the quarter before.
As I noted earlier, Jefferies & Co.’s Peter Misek, who has a Buy rating on
the shares, said the AT&T report could mean fewer iPhones sold this quarter
than he’s been expecting, perhaps in a range of 28 million to 30 million.
BTIG Research’s Walter Piecyk writes this morning that the 4.3 million
activations of the iPhone in Q1 was below his 4.5 million estimate, and that
“successfully slowed its upgrade rate with its new upgrade policies.
“As a result AT&T was able to return its wireless margins to over 40%
versus our estimate of 38.5%.” Moreover, because of “re-activations,” the
actual iPhones sold at AT&T was probably just 4 million, he estimates.
Piecyk notes the upgrade rate at AT&T of 7% was below his 9% estimate, a “
significant slowdown,” in his view. Piecyk thinks Apple may have been able
to offset U.S. iPhone weakness with sales into China, but still he thinks
fiscal Q3 sales will fall to 27.5 million iPhones from 33 million last
quarter.
Meantime, Topeka Capital Markets‘s Brian White reiterates a Buy rating and
a $1,001 price target on Apple shares, writing that, “On the surface, this
iPhone number appears soft and could cause weakness in Apple’s stock.”
However, White thinks the weakness in Apple shares today is a “buying
opportunity,” and he presents data that show AT&T’s share of total iPhone
sales globally has slowed following various introductions of new iPhone
models:
For example, the iPhone 4S was launched in the U.S. and six other countries
on October 14, 2011, followed by 22 countries on October 28, 15 countries on
November 11, 26 countries on December 26 and 22 new countries (including
China) on January 13 of this year. Using our 29.6 million iPhone unit
forecast for the March quarter, we estimate AT&T would account for 14.5% of
total iPhone shipments and down from the 20.5% in 4Q11. During 2011, AT&T
represented a quarterly average of just over 18% of total iPhone shipments.
Taking a look back at the launch of the iPhone 3GS (6/19/09) and iPhone 4 (6
/24/10), AT&T’s percentage contribution of total iPhone shipments fell
substantially during the first full quarter after the launch. For example,
AT&T contributed approximately 43% of 3Q09 iPhone shipments but dipped to 35
% in 4Q09
FBR Capital’s Scott Thompson, meantime, reiterates an Outperform rating on
the shares, and a $675 price target, writing that investor concern that “AT
&T and Verizon (roughly 32% of iPhone sales in C4Q) may begin searching for
ways to reduce smartphone subsidies” are “overdone,” in his view.
“We expect reduced subsidies from carriers to pressure Android- and Windows
Phone?based competitors before Apple’s iPhone, due to the differentiation
and value proposition the iPhone offers,” writes Thompson.
He thinks, moreover, that “Chinese carriers have been on a tear to sign up
3G subs for several quarters. We expect strong sales performance in China
may drive upside to our iPhone estimate of 28.3M units.”
Raymond James’s Tavis McCourt reiterates a Strong Buy on the shares,
writing that the iPhone is “consolidating market share in maturing U.S.
smartphone market.
McCourt focuses on the rise, year over year, from 47% to 64% of smartphone
activations at AT&T and Verizon. The drop of 3% in total smartphone
activations between the two shows the market is maturing in the U.S.
That raises the bar for Apple outside the U.S., he writes:
We estimate that Apple sold about 10 million iPhones in the U.S. in the
March quarter, which means the company would have to sell about 23 million
outside the U.S. in the March quarter to achieve our 33 million unit
estimate. This would equate to flat sequential trends with 4Q 11 vs. a 9%
sequential decline in the year-ago period. $27.68 $45.16 $52.57 $56.23 We
note that many of Apple’s international iPhone 4S launches were last in
4Q11, and its China launches were in 1Q12, making sequential growth of the
iPhone very difficult to predict. | l*******b
发帖数: 2586 | | r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 3 I feel it's as simple as:
Galaxy S2 is a better phone than 4/4s. | a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 4 摘要是： huge uncertainty around iphone sells data of past Q and expectation
to the current and next Q.
【在 l*******b 的大作中提到】
: 摘要摘要,求个摘要...
| l*********m
发帖数: 16971 | 5 经济这么差，哪会有好多新客户
expectation
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: 摘要是： huge uncertainty around iphone sells data of past Q and expectation
: to the current and next Q.
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