o*******w
发帖数: 2310 | 1 Itlay and Greece will cook the market in the early morning!
-250! | o*******w
发帖数: 2310 | 2 Stock market’s calm is cause for alarm
February 22, 2012, 3:23 PM
Judging by the CBOE VIX VIX -0.11% , the so-called fear index, stock
investors have become too complacent in recent days, according Nicholas
Colas, ConvergEx Group chief market strategist.
In a report titled “Standing on a Corner in Winslow Arizona,” Colas
postulates that the stock markets have become immune to “exogenous events”
given that the VIX has trouble holding on to 20, its long running average.
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Are investors taking it just a little too easy?
The index closed Tuesday at 18.2, “the market’s equivalent of a dog
sleeping in the sun,” he writes. As stocks slid on Wednesday, the VIX fell
to 17.95. Read more on U.S. stocks.
It’s not from a lack of any external threats, he adds. “Markets should
feel at least moderately twitchy about Iranian nukes, Chinese hard landings,
the still sluggish U.S. economy, Fed policy, or any one of a veritable
laundry list of potential troubles.”
Another sign of complacency is the shorter time it takes for the VIX to go
from a “rabid” 40 to a “sleeping dog” level of 20 or below.
“The last two such trips (2010 and 2011/12) are measurably shorter than the
previous transits (1998, 2001, 2002, and 2008),” he noted.
So given the calm that seems to have benumbed investors, should you put more
money into stocks?
Colas advises investors acknowledge the great run markets have made from
their October lows and take a page from the Eagles. “Take It Easy,” in
other words.
… there is always another risk catalyst waiting in the wings. Levels
do matter, and I’m as happy as anyone that the Dow DJIA -0.14% is so close
to 13,000. Its just that another number – VIX below 20 – worries me more.
Winslow, Arizona, a close reader might note, wasn’t just a place to watch
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发帖数: 4654 | 3 必需的
【在 o*******w 的大作中提到】
: Itlay and Greece will cook the market in the early morning!
: -250!
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