X*********r
发帖数: 11803 | 1 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-25/biggest-gold-hoard-eve
Gold traders are more bullish after investors accumulated the biggest-ever
hoard of the metal, with Europe’s deepening debt crisis driving them to
protect their wealth with this year’s second-best performing commodity.
Eighteen of 26 surveyed by Bloomberg expect bullion to rise next week.
Holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold reached a record 2,350.8
metric tons on Nov. 23, now valued at $128.5 billion, according to data
compiled by Bloomberg. Hedge funds and other speculators increased their net
-long position, or bets on higher prices, for four weeks, the longest
stretch since March, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.
Almost $12 trillion was wiped off the value of global equities since May on
mounting concern about slower global growth, driving investors to what are
perceived as the safest assets. Yields on Treasuries fell to a near-record
low and gold is heading for an 11th consecutive annual gain. Bullion beat
every other member of the Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities
this year except for gasoil.
“There’s absolutely no doubt that people are still worried,” said Carole
Ferguson, an analyst at Fairfax IS in London. “The market’s being
constantly confronted with the flow of bad news. Gold’s still an asset that
people will look at.”
Bullion climbed 20 percent to $1,699.70 this year on the Comex exchange in
New York, and reached a record $1,923.70 in September. The S&P GSCI advanced
1 percent and the MSCI All- Country World Index of equities retreated 15
percent. Treasuries returned 9.7 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index
shows.
Declines in Copper
The traders surveyed by Bloomberg are less bullish on other commodities,
anticipating declines in copper, raw sugar and corn next week. Soybeans may
advance, the surveys showed.
Investors added 79.5 tons of gold to their ETP holdings since the start of
November, on track for the best month since July, data compiled by Bloomberg
show. The combined tonnage is greater than the reserves of all but four of
the world’s central banks and equal to more than 10 months of global mine
supply.
Speculators raised their combined net-long position by 34 percent to 171,632
futures and options contracts since mid- October, the most bullish they’ve
been in two months, CFTC data show. Wagers were a record 253,653 contracts
in August, a month before prices climbed to an all-time high.
European services and manufacturing output contracted for a third month in
November, and the region’s industrial orders declined the most in almost
three years in September, reports on Nov. 23 showed. Growth in the euro
region will drop to 1.1 percent next year, from 1.6 percent this year, the
International Monetary Fund forecasts.
Credit Rating
Portugal’s credit rating was cut to below investment grade by Fitch Ratings
yesterday because of the nation’s rising debt and weakening economy.
Germany sold 35 percent fewer bonds than its maximum target at an auction on
Nov. 23 and the yield on Greek two-year notes was at 121.6 percent
yesterday. U.S. debt of the same maturity yields less than 0.27.
Declines in equity markets and commodities may oblige some investors to sell
their bullion to cover losses. Gold slipped 3.5 percent last week as raw
materials and stocks slumped the most since September.
“The need to raise cash and cover margins will likely overhang the market,
” said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London.
Stronger Dollar
Gold’s gains also may be curbed by a stronger dollar, said Jesper Dannesboe
, an analyst at Societe Generale SA in London. The currency climbed to the
highest in seven weeks against the euro yesterday. The 30-week correlation
coefficient between the greenback and bullion is now at -0.46, data compiled
by Bloomberg show, with a figure of -1 meaning the two always move in
opposite directions.
Gold investment jumped 33 percent to 468.1 tons in the third quarter from a
year earlier as bar and coin demand in Europe more than doubled to the most
since the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the London-based World Gold
Council.
Purchases by central banks, which are adding to reserves for the first time
in a generation, may reach 450 tons this year, according to Marcus Grubb,
managing director of investment research at the council. Central banks and
government institutions bought 142 tons last year, IMF data show.
The purchases may also be a warning. Prices rose to a then- record $850 in
1980 as central banks bought gold, only to drop for most of the next 20
years. Bullion tripled from 1999 through the beginning of 2008 as the banks
sold more than 4,000 tons.
Annual Performance
Commodities are headed for the weakest annual performance since 2008.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its recommendation on raw materials to “
underweight” on Nov. 22 and said it expects negative total returns for the
S&P GSCI index in the next three to six months. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is
forecasting a 15 percent gain for commodities in the next 12 months.
Ten of 21 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect copper to drop
next week. The metal for delivery in three months, the London Metal Exchange
’s benchmark contract, declined 24 percent to $7,261.50 a ton this year.
Raw sugar retreated 28 percent this year to 23.09 cents a pound on ICE
Futures U.S. in New York. Seven of 11 people surveyed expect prices to
decline next week.
Eleven of 20 anticipate a drop in corn, the most bearish outlook in a year,
while 10 of 20 said soybeans will advance. Corn slipped 5.3 percent to $5.
955 a bushel in Chicago this year and soybeans slid 20 percent to $11.225 a
bushel.
“I don’t think people are going to buy commodities very aggressively at
the moment,” Societe Generale’s Dannesboe said. “We’re negative in the
very near term, but if we don’t get a global recession, then we’ll be
approaching possible good buying levels over the next couple of months.”
Gold survey results: Bullish: 18 Bearish: 6 Hold: 2
Copper survey results: Bullish: 7 Bearish: 10 Hold: 4
Corn survey results: Bullish: 8 Bearish: 11 Hold: 1
Soybean survey results: Bullish: 10 Bearish: 9 Hold: 1
Raw sugar survey results: Bullish: 3 Bearish: 7 Hold: 1
White sugar survey results: Bullish: 2 Bearish: 8 Hold: 1
White sugar premium results: Widen: 2 Narrow: 6 Neutral: 3
To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1
@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at | h********g
发帖数: 155 | 2 Daniu, how high silver can go up to this time yah? |
|
