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发帖数: 1972 | 1 Reuters) - The European debt crisis is raising the odds of a U.S. recession,
with economic contraction more likely than not by early 2012, according to
research from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank.
While it is difficult to gauge the odds precisely, an analysis of leading U.
S. economic indicators suggests a rising chance of a recession through the
end of the year and into early next year, researchers at the regional Fed
bank wrote on Monday. The risk of recession recedes after the second half of
2012, they found.
New governments in Greece and Italy, with fresh promises to tackle fiscal
problems have in recent days, allayed investor concerns about a near-term
sovereign debt default in the euro zone, but Europe's debt crisis is far
from resolved. The region is facing its worst hour since World War II,
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday.
Although domestic threats to economic growth in the United States are
limited, a shock from abroad could derail a fragile recovery.
The weak U.S. economy is more than usually vulnerable to turbulence beyond
its borders, as the unexpectedly severe U.S. effects from Japan's
devastating earthquake in March demonstrates, the researchers said.
"A European sovereign debt default may well sink the United States back into
recession," wrote Travis Berge, Early Elias and Oscar Jorda in the latest
San Francisco Fed Economic Letter. "However, if we navigate the storm
through the second half of 2012, it appears that danger will recede rapidly
in 2013.
The assessment of recession risk is more dire than that of many private
economists. A November 4 Reuters poll of primary dealers shows Wall Street
economists see a 30 percent chance of a U.S. recession next year, down from
35.5 percent a month earlier.
Last week the Federal Reserve's influential vice chairwoman Janet Yellen
warned on the threat from Europe, saying governments there need to take
forceful steps to contain the crisis or risk substantial damage to the
United States.
Before taking her post at the Fed Board in Washington, Yellen headed the San
Francisco Fed.
Her successor, John Williams, is due to give a major policy speech on
Tuesday.
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Padraic Cassidy) | d******8
发帖数: 1972 | 2 Future Recession Risks: An Update
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-
By Travis J. Berge, Early Elias, and Oscar Jorda
In 2010, statistical experiments based on components of the Conference Board
’s Leading Economic Index showed a significant possibility of a U.S.
recession over a 24-month period. Since then, the European sovereign debt
crisis has aggravated international threats to the U.S. economy. Moreover,
the Japanese earthquake and tsunami demonstrated that the U.S. economy is
vulnerable to outside disruptions. Updated forecasts suggest that the
probability of a U.S. recession has remained elevated and may have increased
over the past year, in part because of foreign financial and economic
crises. |
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