o***s
发帖数: 575 | 1 Depression的定义:
In economics, a depression is a sustained, long-term downturn in economic
activity in one or more economies. It is a more severe downturn than a
recession, which is seen by some economists as part of the modern business
cycle.
Depression发生的条件 (David Rosenberg, senior economist and strategist at
Gluskin Sheff in Toronto):
"Simply put, an economic depression occurs only once it becomes painfully
obvious that the markets and the economy are failing to respond to repeated
bouts of policy stimulus,"
这好像正是现在我们看到的。
虽然大多数经济学家认为像日本那样长期的depression（至今20年+)不太可能，但中期
的depression对股市也可能是致命的。
日本depression20年，股市从38900+一路跌倒现在的8300点。
如果这种情况发生在美国(当然欧洲更可能),buy and hold的策略就行不通了。 | S****X
发帖数: 2301 | 2 不做功课是不好的，放心，最多年年ｄｉｐ一次，一样ｄｉｐ完就涨回去～～
经济与股市之间还有货币做缓冲，不是正相关～ | k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 3 我们拭目以待
看看是不是政府已经牛B到可以对抗自然规律了
【在 S****X 的大作中提到】
: 不做功课是不好的，放心，最多年年ｄｉｐ一次，一样ｄｉｐ完就涨回去～～
: 经济与股市之间还有货币做缓冲，不是正相关～
| b******r
发帖数: 16603 | 4 广场协议？
【在 k********8 的大作中提到】
: 我们拭目以待
: 看看是不是政府已经牛B到可以对抗自然规律了
| Z****g
发帖数: 13731 | 5 全球化美国砸了自己的脚
repeated
【在 o***s 的大作中提到】
: Depression的定义:
: In economics, a depression is a sustained, long-term downturn in economic
: activity in one or more economies. It is a more severe downturn than a
: recession, which is seen by some economists as part of the modern business
: cycle.
: Depression发生的条件 (David Rosenberg, senior economist and strategist at
: Gluskin Sheff in Toronto):
: "Simply put, an economic depression occurs only once it becomes painfully
: obvious that the markets and the economy are failing to respond to repeated
: bouts of policy stimulus,"
| k********8
发帖数: 7948 | 6 我说得是最organic的自然供需关系
我觉得广场协议是那个时期经济发展的必然产物
【在 b******r 的大作中提到】
: 广场协议？
| o**o
发帖数: 3964 | 7 Not if you can print usd
【在 o***s 的大作中提到】
: Depression的定义:
: In economics, a depression is a sustained, long-term downturn in economic
: activity in one or more economies. It is a more severe downturn than a
: recession, which is seen by some economists as part of the modern business
: cycle.
: Depression发生的条件 (David Rosenberg, senior economist and strategist at
: Gluskin Sheff in Toronto):
: "Simply put, an economic depression occurs only once it becomes painfully
: obvious that the markets and the economy are failing to respond to repeated
: bouts of policy stimulus,"
|
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