b******f
发帖数: 161 | 1 if US default, dow will drop at least 50%. Pa bu pa? |
w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 2 US will not default, period.
Maybe "technical default"? hoho |
b******f
发帖数: 161 | 3 seems you are sure, but not as sure as to me
【在 w*******o 的大作中提到】
: US will not default, period.
: Maybe "technical default"? hoho
|
w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 4 All financial models which assumes "US treasury= Risk free" will blow out if
that happened, it's like 2012 for the financial world.
【在 b******f 的大作中提到】
: seems you are sure, but not as sure as to me
|
b******f
发帖数: 161 | 5 that's your model, see below
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43771859
if
【在 w*******o 的大作中提到】
: All financial models which assumes "US treasury= Risk free" will blow out if
: that happened, it's like 2012 for the financial world.
|
P******l
发帖数: 1648 | 6 waao!
A default could knock up to 50 percent off the benchmark S&P 500 index.
啥都甭说了 full margin上put |
l******2
发帖数: 5522 | 7 if US default， dollar down, stock up, gold down(because US government has
70% of total gold reserve on earth)
【在 b******f 的大作中提到】
: if US default, dow will drop at least 50%. Pa bu pa?
|
v*****k
发帖数: 7798 | 8 蛋不是你这么扯的
【在 l******2 的大作中提到】
: if US default， dollar down, stock up, gold down(because US government has
: 70% of total gold reserve on earth)
|
w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 9 US default -> Stock up?
I thought your FA on NOK is pretty bad already,
but this one is even worse than that: it's clueless.
【在 l******2 的大作中提到】
: if US default， dollar down, stock up, gold down(because US government has
: 70% of total gold reserve on earth)
|
b******f
发帖数: 161 | 10 the problem is you donot know how sure you really are. If you are sure one
side, you can do one side trade, then you become rich.If you are wrong ,you
will be a loser.
so, be smart. This is a game you donnot know and cannot chose the right one.
The only thing you can do is to guess based on the information.
【在 P******l 的大作中提到】
: waao!
: A default could knock up to 50 percent off the benchmark S&P 500 index.
: 啥都甭说了 full margin上put
|
|
|
l******2
发帖数: 5522 | 11 I said if US default, Stock up
I did not say "US default -> Stock up"
【在 w*******o 的大作中提到】
: US default -> Stock up?
: I thought your FA on NOK is pretty bad already,
: but this one is even worse than that: it's clueless.
|
w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 12 Looks like you don't know what I am talking about.
【在 b******f 的大作中提到】
: that's your model, see below
: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43771859
:
: if
|
w*******o
发帖数: 6125 | 13 What does "if US default, Stock up" mean
1) If US default AND Stock up
2) If US default OR Stock up
3) If US default, THEN Stock up
【在 l******2 的大作中提到】
: I said if US default, Stock up
: I did not say "US default -> Stock up"
|
t***y
发帖数: 2276 | 14 "If the Aug. 2 deadline comes and goes without a deal, though, a downgrade
could drive up borrowing costs and pummel stock markets."
我不懂这些政客，但是，肯定会有个deal的，只是他们现在在讨价还价。
anyway, deadline is aug. 2, we still have two weeks, so why sell all
positions the next week? |
U********f
发帖数: 2482 | 15 再等50年，有可能的。
【在 b******f 的大作中提到】
: if US default, dow will drop at least 50%. Pa bu pa?
|
Y********e
发帖数: 2445 | 16 杞人忧天。
【在 b******f 的大作中提到】
: if US default, dow will drop at least 50%. Pa bu pa?
|
b******f
发帖数: 161 | 17 thinking you are on a boat close to a fall
next week is safe to leave. The next next week is too close to the fall ,
and may not safe enough for you to get away, if it deed happens then,
countless sells will bring you into water no matter how hard you try.
【在 t***y 的大作中提到】
: "If the Aug. 2 deadline comes and goes without a deal, though, a downgrade
: could drive up borrowing costs and pummel stock markets."
: 我不懂这些政客，但是，肯定会有个deal的，只是他们现在在讨价还价。
: anyway, deadline is aug. 2, we still have two weeks, so why sell all
: positions the next week?
|
P******l
发帖数: 1648 | 18 君子不立于危墙之下
早闪早安心
【在 t***y 的大作中提到】
: "If the Aug. 2 deadline comes and goes without a deal, though, a downgrade
: could drive up borrowing costs and pummel stock markets."
: 我不懂这些政客，但是，肯定会有个deal的，只是他们现在在讨价还价。
: anyway, deadline is aug. 2, we still have two weeks, so why sell all
: positions the next week?
|
j***b
发帖数: 5901 | 19 If you think there is a decent probability of stock market going down by 50%
within the next couple of weeks, you must be crazy not to buy far out of
money puts.
【在 b******f 的大作中提到】
: if US default, dow will drop at least 50%. Pa bu pa?
|
h**********9
发帖数: 3252 | 20
50%
He doesn't do that because he already said:
"the problem is you donot know how sure you really are. If you are sure one
side, you can do one side trade, then you become rich.If you are wrong ,you
will be a loser."
【在 j***b 的大作中提到】
: If you think there is a decent probability of stock market going down by 50%
: within the next couple of weeks, you must be crazy not to buy far out of
: money puts.
|
|
|
E**O
发帖数: 1980 | 21 难道有这样的好事？先上put上margin，再上call上margin。
【在 b******f 的大作中提到】
: if US default, dow will drop at least 50%. Pa bu pa?
|
i*u
发帖数: 299 | 22 别傻，那是不可能的。
default了，那financial model里面的那个“risk free rate”应该由谁来代替？
default了，谁来当经济老大？你觉得美国会让位么？
default了，亏最大的是谁？想过了没？
【在 b******f 的大作中提到】
: if US default, dow will drop at least 50%. Pa bu pa?
|
j***b
发帖数: 5901 | 23 现在put的定价都是假定大盘根本不可能跌50%，所以Far out of money puts很便宜。只要你认为有跌50%的可能，那这些put都是便宜的可笑，不买就是跟钱过不去。不需要all in。随随便便买点就等着nx吧。
one
you
【在 h**********9 的大作中提到】
:
: 50%
: He doesn't do that because he already said:
: "the problem is you donot know how sure you really are. If you are sure one
: side, you can do one side trade, then you become rich.If you are wrong ,you
: will be a loser."
|
