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t*********e
发帖数: 313 | 1 http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/03/10/bank-of-america-10-r
By Matt Phillips
Everett Digital
Getting Bearish? Bank of America global stock watcher Michael Hartnett is
out with a succinct note ticking off the reasons why it might make sense to
see a good ole fashioned stock market correction right about now.
Now strictly speaking, these are what we would call “facts.” Neither
Hartnett nor anybody else can say what the inflation numbers will look like
in the second quarter, for example. But the point is that there are any
number of worries out there that would provide ample fuel for fretting.
For our money, bullet point #4 is the most important. As the business cycle
shows signs of stability, Ben & Co. are getting closer to taking the
training wheels off the U.S. economy when it finished up its QE2 bond-buying
program in June. We’d be willing to be those first few months might see
some wobbly pedaling in the financial markets.
1.CPI: headline will be 3-4% in Q2
2.PPI: headline will be 6-7% in Q2
3.ECB hikes in April; Portuguese bond yields at new highs; Euro banks
breaking
4.down (Chart 1)
5.QE2 ends in June; Fed likely to test market reaction
6.ISM peaking…EPS momentum peaking
7.GDP estimates heading lower – this key reason
8.FMS cash levels low, equity allocations high
9.CCMP: tech leadership fading (it’s not a party without the chips – Chart
2)
10.Oil: big rotation from cyclicals to defensives; compare sector
performance between a. Jackson Hole and Libya and b. since oil>$95/b – see
Materials in particular (Charts 3 and 4)
11.UST, US$: inability of bonds to rally was key reason for Feb equity
resilience; bonds now rallying & US dollar finally catching a bid (and
metals down) | q*********u
发帖数: 9501 | | g8
发帖数: 3784 | | q*********u
发帖数: 9501 | 4 哈哈，精辟至极！
【在 g8 的大作中提到】
: yy有1001个理由
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