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Stock版 - The Bear Market Rally Has Begun (转载)
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【 以下文字转载自 Daily_market_prediction 俱乐部 】
发信人: lovefreedom (freedom), 信区: Daily_market_prediction
标 题: The Bear Market Rally Has Begun
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Tue Aug 30 15:41:25 2011, 美东)
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/bear-market
The Bear Market Rally Has Begun
By Toby Connor Aug 30, 2011 2:40 pm
The stock market has stretched to ridiculous levels, both technically and in
terms of sentiment, which should generate an extremely convincing bear
market rally.
I've been warning bears for a couple of weeks that the market was due for an
aggressive bear market rally. That rally has clearly begun.
I have often referenced the rubber band theory in my writing. For those not
in the know, the rubber band theory is nothing more than the tendency for
any market to regress to the mean. And the further a market is stretched
away from the mean, the more violent the snap back tends to be once the
pressure is released.
In the case of a rubber band, the further you stretch it in one direction,
the harder it snaps forward once you release it. Simple action and reaction.
Markets are really no different. The further you stretch the stock market
the more violent and persistent the snap back tends to be once the turn
occurs. At the recent yearly cycle low on August 9, the stock market had
stretched to ridiculous levels, both sentiment wise and technically. This
should generate an extremely convincing bear market rally.
Click to enlarge
A normal bear market rally will typically last from four to 10 weeks. (They
have to last long enough to reverse extreme sentiment levels.) Generally
speaking that takes a minimum of four weeks, and six to eight weeks is about
average.
A bear market rally out of a yearly cycle low (other than a four-year cycle
low, the move into a yearly cycle low tends to be the most damaging decline
in the stock market. This year was certainly no exception) will quite often
tag, and occasionally penetrate the declining 200-day moving average. I tend
to think that will be the case this time, also. My best guess is the market
will rally up to the 200-day moving average, then dip slightly into the
next daily cycle low around the end of September. That should be followed by
an extreme left-translated daily cycle that tops slightly above the 200-day
moving average (I guessed at about 1,300 on the chart below) and then moves
down into the next intermediate bottom due in late November or very early
December. At which point the market will make a lower low, confirming a new
cyclical bear market.
Click to enlarge
Actually the market has already met all three confirmations that a new
cyclical bear market has begun:
1.Dow Theory sell signal. When the industrials and the transports both
broke below the March low, a Dow Theory sell signal was triggered.
2.A move below a previous intermediate bottom. When the S&P broke below the
March low it triggered a new pattern of lower intermediate lows.
3.The 50-day moving average dropping below the 200-day moving average, and
the 200-day moving average is turning down.
Investors need to be prepared. This is going to be a very, very convincing
rally. The tendency is going to be to buy into the media hype -- that this
was nothing more than a severe correction in an ongoing bull market.
This was not a correction. This was the first leg down in a new cyclical
bear market. And like all bear markets it will be subject to violent
countertrend rallies that toy with traders' emotions, and ultimately cause
investors to ride the bear all the way to the bottom.
Editor's Note: Toby Connor is the author of Gold Scents, a financial blog
with a special emphasis on the gold secular bull market.
p**********d
发帖数: 7918
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一句話,經濟復甦,就會是牛市。反之,經濟復甦無力,就會是熊市。此人的文章沒有
半點內容。
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