Stock版 - 说说我的三个Real Estate Holding |
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m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 1 Currently, I mainly hold and swing trade three real estate holding:
GKK, RAS and NCT.
1) I like GKK just for one simply reason, strong cash flow each quarter.
I estimated the cash flow was around 20 million or 0.40/per share quarter.
Or 1.60/per year.
Biggest problem: They have around 700 million loans need to roll over in
March/20111. If they can successful roll over the loan, the stock should
trade much higher(over $5), otherwise, the stock could crashed down to as
low as 1.50 in my estimate.
Other negative, they have an unsueccessful tender for their prefer.
So this is real a gamble stock.
2) I like RAS for its book value as high as $10/share. and waiting for their
real estate holding to turn around
The management does not have a good tracking record(they care too much to
themself then shareholder), worst, the cash flow picture is getting worse
quarter after quarter.
3) NCT is the bigger winner for me so far.
On paper, their real book value is low, the management obviously knows what
they are doing. They take advantage of mis-price for the CDO market and do
very well. They are cash flow improved quarter after quarter. They don't
have any debt due in the next 5 years.
If they can continue the current trend, they should start to pay the
dividend next year, the stock should trade in double digit.
Of course, the bigger question is if they can repeat their performance for
the last two years. Worst, I really don't know much about CDO market. | L****n
发帖数: 12932 | | a****g
发帖数: 8131 | | l********g
发帖数: 5070 | | l****i
发帖数: 4609 | 5 你觉得LEN 这个有前途吗？
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: Currently, I mainly hold and swing trade three real estate holding:
: GKK, RAS and NCT.
: 1) I like GKK just for one simply reason, strong cash flow each quarter.
: I estimated the cash flow was around 20 million or 0.40/per share quarter.
: Or 1.60/per year.
: Biggest problem: They have around 700 million loans need to roll over in
: March/20111. If they can successful roll over the loan, the stock should
: trade much higher(over $5), otherwise, the stock could crashed down to as
: low as 1.50 in my estimate.
: Other negative, they have an unsueccessful tender for their prefer.
| p****r
发帖数: 4348 | 6 Thanks.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: Currently, I mainly hold and swing trade three real estate holding:
: GKK, RAS and NCT.
: 1) I like GKK just for one simply reason, strong cash flow each quarter.
: I estimated the cash flow was around 20 million or 0.40/per share quarter.
: Or 1.60/per year.
: Biggest problem: They have around 700 million loans need to roll over in
: March/20111. If they can successful roll over the loan, the stock should
: trade much higher(over $5), otherwise, the stock could crashed down to as
: low as 1.50 in my estimate.
: Other negative, they have an unsueccessful tender for their prefer.
| a********h
发帖数: 819 | 7 cool. thanks a lot. could be good inflation/reflation trade.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: Currently, I mainly hold and swing trade three real estate holding:
: GKK, RAS and NCT.
: 1) I like GKK just for one simply reason, strong cash flow each quarter.
: I estimated the cash flow was around 20 million or 0.40/per share quarter.
: Or 1.60/per year.
: Biggest problem: They have around 700 million loans need to roll over in
: March/20111. If they can successful roll over the loan, the stock should
: trade much higher(over $5), otherwise, the stock could crashed down to as
: low as 1.50 in my estimate.
: Other negative, they have an unsueccessful tender for their prefer.
| Z****g
发帖数: 13731 | 8 ding
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: Currently, I mainly hold and swing trade three real estate holding:
: GKK, RAS and NCT.
: 1) I like GKK just for one simply reason, strong cash flow each quarter.
: I estimated the cash flow was around 20 million or 0.40/per share quarter.
: Or 1.60/per year.
: Biggest problem: They have around 700 million loans need to roll over in
: March/20111. If they can successful roll over the loan, the stock should
: trade much higher(over $5), otherwise, the stock could crashed down to as
: low as 1.50 in my estimate.
: Other negative, they have an unsueccessful tender for their prefer.
| f******u
发帖数: 250 | 9 added RAS to my long straddle & strangle watching list and will play in the
week before 2/14/2011 if the price still keeps this level. thanks. | m******l
发帖数: 1690 | 10
下周二季报，听听CC就知道了。
【在 l****i 的大作中提到】
: 你觉得LEN 这个有前途吗？
| | | f*****a
发帖数: 693 | | m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 12 RAS started with a small dividend. Don't know why GKK was so strong today.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: Currently, I mainly hold and swing trade three real estate holding:
: GKK, RAS and NCT.
: 1) I like GKK just for one simply reason, strong cash flow each quarter.
: I estimated the cash flow was around 20 million or 0.40/per share quarter.
: Or 1.60/per year.
: Biggest problem: They have around 700 million loans need to roll over in
: March/20111. If they can successful roll over the loan, the stock should
: trade much higher(over $5), otherwise, the stock could crashed down to as
: low as 1.50 in my estimate.
: Other negative, they have an unsueccessful tender for their prefer.
| L****n
发帖数: 12932 | | m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 14 All three had decent move this week. Just lucky.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: Currently, I mainly hold and swing trade three real estate holding:
: GKK, RAS and NCT.
: 1) I like GKK just for one simply reason, strong cash flow each quarter.
: I estimated the cash flow was around 20 million or 0.40/per share quarter.
: Or 1.60/per year.
: Biggest problem: They have around 700 million loans need to roll over in
: March/20111. If they can successful roll over the loan, the stock should
: trade much higher(over $5), otherwise, the stock could crashed down to as
: low as 1.50 in my estimate.
: Other negative, they have an unsueccessful tender for their prefer.
| c****2
发帖数: 1076 | | C********N
发帖数: 1263 | |
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