m****a
发帖数: 240 | 1 Why there are so many stupid minds in this stock?
It is running like a 2004 GOOG, but tell me how can this one achieves a 50%
annual growth for the next 5 years?
Comcast PE=14 and Dish PE=11, how can you justify a PE=66 on this one if not
assuming a 4~5 times better EPS a few years later. Not even mention the tiny book
value.
Stay away from this hype. If you have no guts, then don't short neither. If
you still want to short then use derivatives to help you for better reward/
risk ratio. |
j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 2 crazy ding
"no guts, weak heart, sit on the sideline and watch the show" |
v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 3 lol
%
not
tiny book
If
【在 m****a 的大作中提到】
: Why there are so many stupid minds in this stock?
: It is running like a 2004 GOOG, but tell me how can this one achieves a 50%
: annual growth for the next 5 years?
: Comcast PE=14 and Dish PE=11, how can you justify a PE=66 on this one if not
: assuming a 4~5 times better EPS a few years later. Not even mention the tiny book
: value.
: Stay away from this hype. If you have no guts, then don't short neither. If
: you still want to short then use derivatives to help you for better reward/
: risk ratio.
|
l****l
发帖数: 52 | 4 How about LONG, samilar,P/E is over 200, this year Alfa is 6 times S&P index
, do u have gut to short? |
B**u
发帖数: 65 | 5 一个女人你觉得她的胸和屁股很tiny，可是大家觉得她的胸正在变大。
只要她告诉大家她的cup size一直在变大，from a, to b,..., 大家就会一直pump她。
lol。
but, 我今天short了她，现在还没cover,替你出一口恶气，lol。
%
not
tiny book
If
【在 m****a 的大作中提到】
: Why there are so many stupid minds in this stock?
: It is running like a 2004 GOOG, but tell me how can this one achieves a 50%
: annual growth for the next 5 years?
: Comcast PE=14 and Dish PE=11, how can you justify a PE=66 on this one if not
: assuming a 4~5 times better EPS a few years later. Not even mention the tiny book
: value.
: Stay away from this hype. If you have no guts, then don't short neither. If
: you still want to short then use derivatives to help you for better reward/
: risk ratio.
|
j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 6 LONG
Float: 2.05M
一样么？ 会被挤死的吧
index
【在 l****l 的大作中提到】
: How about LONG, samilar,P/E is over 200, this year Alfa is 6 times S&P index
: , do u have gut to short?
|
m****a
发帖数: 240 | 7 You have no clue about netflix. period.
We don't use PE to judge stock price, we use future growth to judge PE.
index
【在 l****l 的大作中提到】
: How about LONG, samilar,P/E is over 200, this year Alfa is 6 times S&P index
: , do u have gut to short?
|
m****a
发帖数: 240 | 8 Do you know what's the market share for netflix and for elong in their
respective industry? And what's the potential max growth for them?
How many inches you grow after 1 year old?
How many inches you grow after 12 years old?
index
【在 l****l 的大作中提到】
: How about LONG, samilar,P/E is over 200, this year Alfa is 6 times S&P index
: , do u have gut to short?
|
v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 9 to be honest with you, I think 4--6 times today's EPS 5 years down the road
is a conservative assumption in the playbook here. you have to understand
how wall street cooks a story and bake it into a $1000 stock. do not go
short the bubble when you can't see any reason for it to burst anytime soon.
you can very well be right about its "fair valuation", but that won't
matter when you trade. you don't have the pricing power. they do.
%
not
tiny book
If
【在 m****a 的大作中提到】
: Why there are so many stupid minds in this stock?
: It is running like a 2004 GOOG, but tell me how can this one achieves a 50%
: annual growth for the next 5 years?
: Comcast PE=14 and Dish PE=11, how can you justify a PE=66 on this one if not
: assuming a 4~5 times better EPS a few years later. Not even mention the tiny book
: value.
: Stay away from this hype. If you have no guts, then don't short neither. If
: you still want to short then use derivatives to help you for better reward/
: risk ratio.
|
r*m
发帖数: 16380 | 10 very good point.
it's really tempting to short NFLX. but don't underestimate people's
craziness.
【在 m****a 的大作中提到】
: Do you know what's the market share for netflix and for elong in their
: respective industry? And what's the potential max growth for them?
: How many inches you grow after 1 year old?
: How many inches you grow after 12 years old?
:
: index
|
|
|
d********0
发帖数: 5142 | 11 两大牛，一个long，一个short，青蛙们彷徨了。。 |
v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 12 how's that bidu short position working out for you, huh?
【在 r*m 的大作中提到】
: very good point.
: it's really tempting to short NFLX. but don't underestimate people's
: craziness.
|
m****a
发帖数: 240 | 13 No way for a 5 times EPS because it is limited by household number.
A X number of households will pay Y amount money for the service.
That's a simple equation but not everyone can see it.
Take a look on SIRI, WS will only fool some people for some time. Don't be
the last bag holder.
I am not a newbie, I do lots of derivatives, You know even price is going
higher there are still ways to make money by shorting.
road
soon.
【在 v****e 的大作中提到】
: to be honest with you, I think 4--6 times today's EPS 5 years down the road
: is a conservative assumption in the playbook here. you have to understand
: how wall street cooks a story and bake it into a $1000 stock. do not go
: short the bubble when you can't see any reason for it to burst anytime soon.
: you can very well be right about its "fair valuation", but that won't
: matter when you trade. you don't have the pricing power. they do.
:
: %
: not
: tiny book
|
v****e
发帖数: 19471 | 14 my question for you is: why bother? it's a lot more risky then just
following the trend. if you want to profit from superior FA, why not find
deeply undervalued stocks and hold them to get 3, 5, 10 baggers? the best
you can do buy going short is making 100% return. yeah, you are gonna tell
me about selling calls and doing bearish spreads. but again, if your timing
is off by a few months, you can lose big. I'm just not a big fan not trading
against the trend. more than everything else, stock mark
【在 m****a 的大作中提到】
: No way for a 5 times EPS because it is limited by household number.
: A X number of households will pay Y amount money for the service.
: That's a simple equation but not everyone can see it.
: Take a look on SIRI, WS will only fool some people for some time. Don't be
: the last bag holder.
: I am not a newbie, I do lots of derivatives, You know even price is going
: higher there are still ways to make money by shorting.
:
:
: road
|
m****a
发帖数: 240 | 15 Fair enough.
But to me this FA is so crystal clear. I could be wrong, so I have to use
more derivatives and diversify with other stocks.
Talking about trend, I am always a contrarian trader so potentially I will
easily have early loss but that's fine as long as risk is controlled and FA
is right.
For NFLX, even TA side shows the weakness.
Last Thursday, Friday and this Tuesday all show distribution pattern.
timing
trading
【在 v****e 的大作中提到】
: my question for you is: why bother? it's a lot more risky then just
: following the trend. if you want to profit from superior FA, why not find
: deeply undervalued stocks and hold them to get 3, 5, 10 baggers? the best
: you can do buy going short is making 100% return. yeah, you are gonna tell
: me about selling calls and doing bearish spreads. but again, if your timing
: is off by a few months, you can lose big. I'm just not a big fan not trading
: against the trend. more than everything else, stock mark
|
j*****h
发帖数: 3292 | 16 很多人可以算出来
可烧死的都是明白人，
所以偶这种蝌蚪就变成了undervalue stock的死牛
【在 m****a 的大作中提到】
: No way for a 5 times EPS because it is limited by household number.
: A X number of households will pay Y amount money for the service.
: That's a simple equation but not everyone can see it.
: Take a look on SIRI, WS will only fool some people for some time. Don't be
: the last bag holder.
: I am not a newbie, I do lots of derivatives, You know even price is going
: higher there are still ways to make money by shorting.
:
:
: road
|
L****n
发帖数: 12932 | 17
FA
nflx don't show ANY signs of distribution in my eyes. from recent double
bottom breakout (aug10) and test(aug30), it barely run up 15%. price
deviation from 50ma barely 30%. far far from the climax run.
【在 m****a 的大作中提到】
: Fair enough.
: But to me this FA is so crystal clear. I could be wrong, so I have to use
: more derivatives and diversify with other stocks.
: Talking about trend, I am always a contrarian trader so potentially I will
: easily have early loss but that's fine as long as risk is controlled and FA
: is right.
: For NFLX, even TA side shows the weakness.
: Last Thursday, Friday and this Tuesday all show distribution pattern.
:
: timing
|
e***z
发帖数: 7126 | 18 bu hou dao
【在 v****e 的大作中提到】
: how's that bidu short position working out for you, huh?
|
m****a
发帖数: 240 | 19 不好意思的说，看distribution 我还是有两把刷子的。 没有装B的意思。
【在 L****n 的大作中提到】
:
: FA
: nflx don't show ANY signs of distribution in my eyes. from recent double
: bottom breakout (aug10) and test(aug30), it barely run up 15%. price
: deviation from 50ma barely 30%. far far from the climax run.
|
