m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 1 Just like C, and it could also destroy the stock. This is a likely event.
Of course, if they want to do it, the earlier they do, the less damage it
will cause to the shareholders. |
m********0
发帖数: 2717 | 2 增发一般有稀释作用:)
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: Just like C, and it could also destroy the stock. This is a likely event.
: Of course, if they want to do it, the earlier they do, the less damage it
: will cause to the shareholders.
|
c*******9
发帖数: 6411 | 3 文刀兄probably paper trading and actually short it in his real account. |
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 4 现在的情况下，BP绝对不敢增发。他的debt已经traded like junk。一旦增发，说明它
已经没有别的选择了。BP有可能会file pre-packaged bankrupcy，也好过增发新股。
最有可能的情况，如果它现金有问题，会issue英国政府担保的bond。
不过它一旦增发，坚决short。 |
l******2
发帖数: 5522 | 5 BP不会增发股票来raise capital, 这种做法背离了公司尊重股东权益的传统。 如果你
看看BP的balance sheet, 在过去10年里， BP每年回购自家2%的股份， 并且注销这些
股份来增加股东权益。 这样的公司不多， MCO算一个。如果现在增发股票， 将来再以
高价回购很不划算。
在我看来BP完全没有必要来借钱和出售资产(管理层脑子不知道怎么想的)。 如果我是
CEO， 我就回家睡大觉， 因为BP这台印钞机一年可以印250亿(在油价75-80)。 就算发
红， 这些钱也能度过难关。 两个月了， BP 在赔偿方面就配了$100M。O8虽然让BP垫
200亿， 但是是分4年付清。为的就是让BP账面上好看一点。
管理层借钱可能知识让账面上好看一点， 它们完全没有必要这么做。 |
a********t
发帖数: 4508 | 6 赞文刀兄对所投资公司的了解。很多人trade来trade去也不见得静下心来好好了解一下
自己trade的是什么。
不过文刀兄，以历史数据来看，BP绝对不会什么问题。但这次的事件在历史数据里是没
有过的。这属于小概率（although arguable)事件。有的时候还是要forward-looking
的。指着这一支股票退休的想法还是有些危险的。 |
m*****i
发帖数: 4342 | 7 So far, they have spent around 2.2 billion in Cleaning cost.
I saw you had some very good stock picks last year, why not do like last
year and betting on couple of stocks instead of one.
I just hope you don't get emotional attached to one stock. Wish you luck.
【在 l******2 的大作中提到】
: BP不会增发股票来raise capital, 这种做法背离了公司尊重股东权益的传统。 如果你
: 看看BP的balance sheet, 在过去10年里， BP每年回购自家2%的股份， 并且注销这些
: 股份来增加股东权益。 这样的公司不多， MCO算一个。如果现在增发股票， 将来再以
: 高价回购很不划算。
: 在我看来BP完全没有必要来借钱和出售资产(管理层脑子不知道怎么想的)。 如果我是
: CEO， 我就回家睡大觉， 因为BP这台印钞机一年可以印250亿(在油价75-80)。 就算发
: 红， 这些钱也能度过难关。 两个月了， BP 在赔偿方面就配了$100M。O8虽然让BP垫
: 200亿， 但是是分4年付清。为的就是让BP账面上好看一点。
: 管理层借钱可能知识让账面上好看一点， 它们完全没有必要这么做。
|
l******2
发帖数: 5522 | 8 i am not a fund manager, and I do not want to buy 100 stocks to diversfy.
if I have 20 stocks, I will not be able to tell which one is the best
company.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: So far, they have spent around 2.2 billion in Cleaning cost.
: I saw you had some very good stock picks last year, why not do like last
: year and betting on couple of stocks instead of one.
: I just hope you don't get emotional attached to one stock. Wish you luck.
|
l******2
发帖数: 5522 | 9 if I have 100 stocks, I do not want to read 100 annual reports every year,
and tell which is the best company
【在 l******2 的大作中提到】
: i am not a fund manager, and I do not want to buy 100 stocks to diversfy.
: if I have 20 stocks, I will not be able to tell which one is the best
: company.
|
l******2
发帖数: 5522 | 10 BP is not like C, FRE, AIG, LEH
those companies lost their earning power for a long period of time, and
money from outside is required to support the business.
BP is a totolly different case, BP can maintains its earning power for crude
oil above $60, and this earning power is able to fund its current clean up
operation.
【在 m*****i 的大作中提到】
: Just like C, and it could also destroy the stock. This is a likely event.
: Of course, if they want to do it, the earlier they do, the less damage it
: will cause to the shareholders.
|
