l*******u
发帖数: 12906 | 1 In the attached video Macke and I address a key statistic that is hugely
telling about the reality of the current market environment. First flagged
by our friends at Bespoke Investment Group earlier this week, the numbers
show the S&P 500 has not declined over 1% since December 28, 2011; that's 29
consecutive trading days.
Factset
This is the longest period of calmness since a 37-day run that ended January
19, 2011. Even though it appears today might mark the end of the latest
streak, it doesn't necessarily mean the rally is dead, but it does warrant
investors start planning for what's ahead.
On that note, it's important to look at this week's marked uptick in
volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). The Vix is on
course to post its best week since August and snap a 5-week downtrend.
"This is the time to say, 'if we fell 2%, what would I do?'" Macke suggests,
pointing out the need to know if you would panic at the thought of giving
up your gains, or see it as an opportunity to start buying stocks.
A lot of investors out there fell that a sell-off is looming, but history
tells us that the chance of the market actually delivering what is expected
by the masses is quite small. That said, I think that there are a number of
fundamental reasons why a mild dip will be short-lived.
Since December 28th the S&P 500 is up roughly 8%. If you peel it back
another 10 days to December 19th, the gain spikes to a 12% move, with nary a
dip or buying opportunity. To make matters worse, the gains for a few key
sectors, like Financials (XLF), Tech (XLK), and Materials (XLB), are nearly
twice as large.
What that means is, unless you were in the market all the way, you're
probably lagging way behind, especially if you've been waiting for a
pullback. So, when one finally comes, there's good reason to believe that it
would be met by a lot of late money.
Macke has his shopping list in place already and is excited by the thought
of a dip to back to 1300 on the S&P 500. That is only 3.7% below Thursday's
close, which marked a 7-month high. | l*******u
发帖数: 12906 | 2 居安思危到底是好还是坏？
29
January
【在 l*******u 的大作中提到】
: In the attached video Macke and I address a key statistic that is hugely
: telling about the reality of the current market environment. First flagged
: by our friends at Bespoke Investment Group earlier this week, the numbers
: show the S&P 500 has not declined over 1% since December 28, 2011; that's 29
: consecutive trading days.
: Factset
: This is the longest period of calmness since a 37-day run that ended January
: 19, 2011. Even though it appears today might mark the end of the latest
: streak, it doesn't necessarily mean the rally is dead, but it does warrant
: investors start planning for what's ahead.
| g*****A
发帖数: 14950 | | l*******u
发帖数: 12906 | 4 我的观点
居安思危的好处：尚未发现
坏处：总给人收拾餐桌，注意，连汤都喝不上
【在 g*****A 的大作中提到】
: 好啊
: 按常理说这样滴
| e******r
发帖数: 9977 | 5 收拾餐桌的都有小费的，喝人剩汤好恶的说。
【在 l*******u 的大作中提到】
: 我的观点
: 居安思危的好处：尚未发现
: 坏处：总给人收拾餐桌，注意，连汤都喝不上
| V**********1
发帖数: 24381 | 6 你们慢慢收拾，大叔吃饭去鸟
【在 e******r 的大作中提到】
: 收拾餐桌的都有小费的，喝人剩汤好恶的说。
| l*******u
发帖数: 12906 | 7 可惜还没有小费
【在 e******r 的大作中提到】
: 收拾餐桌的都有小费的，喝人剩汤好恶的说。
| l*******u
发帖数: 12906 | 8 花儿们要是还有善心给小费，母猪都要变貂蝉
【在 l*******u 的大作中提到】
: 可惜还没有小费
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