o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 1 I assure you guys, who want to stay in the US for the rest of your life,
that you will regret in the next 10 or 20 years.
1. US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world, and the
situation is going to worsen, no matter what. US government and its people
are holding their one-way ticket heading towards a total decline. Just think
about how to pay off all the money they owe?!
2. You may think US salary is among the highest in the world, but it's only
for now. Think about the inflation rate, don't trust the government's CPI
number, just compare your spending now with it was 5 years ago. The tax rate
is going to rise inevitably, to the roof, just in order to deal with the
public debt and maintain all the government spending.
3. There will be social unrest among races in the US. The thing to keep all
races peaceful in a framework is just money, if more and more middle class
go to bankrupcy in future, you will see more and more people blame on each
other. One of the main target will be pointed to Chinese when China is
rising and competing more and more. White and Black and Hispanic will all be
hostile to Chinese immigrants who work hardest but have least political
support.
4. American life style is not healthy and sustainable. The world is running
out of known reserves of oil at a rate of 6% per year, according to IEA data
. Americans are so dependent on burning fossil fuels. Think about it, what
can fuel American drivers 30 years later? What will happen is that many
small towns isolated in the "big countryside" will distinct, because there
is not enough energy to transport people in and out of there.
Alternative energies, such as solar, wind, hydro, nuclear, biofuel, maybe
possible solutions for many countries, such as Japan, Singapore, EU,
Austrilia or China, since their population are concentrated, you can
allocate the energy more efficiently. But not for the US, I assure you, most
US cities will die out by the end of this century because of lack of energy.
5. The US will be revenged by many countries later in this century,
terrorism is not end because of the death of Bin Laden. I assure you that
more and more attack will continue, and the national defense will keep
rising. So be prepare to pay for all that.
Just switch the gear.
6. You should go to the countries and places where money is, they are China,
Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea. China is definitely the most
promising country, and the 21 century will be the century of China. There is
no question about that, although for sure there will be setbacks in China,
such as hand landing, burst of property bubbles, etc.
But in long term, China is going up, burst of real estate bubble in Beijing
will not be the end of Chinese economy. Some people who own several houses
will go bankrupcy, but other people will be able to afford to buy places to
live, and to form new middle class. Some people start over, some people
become richer, as long as the central government still have the control.
If you worry about pollution and food in China, consider places like Japan,
Hong Kong and Singapore, those regions will be more and more integrated into
greater China economy, and always be prepared, and look oppotunities
closely.
7. I urge you not to have US nationality. You may see ABCs in China are in
upper class nowadays, you might think your children with US passport can go
to PKU and TSU with much less excellency. But please always think in long
term, the situation is changing, look at Xiaosong Gao's case. Look at how
many Chinese babies are holding US passports, do you still believe your
children can be qualified to PKU with only a "Pass" grade 10 or 15 years later?
I assure you China is more and more demanding for competent people, not "
people who have been abroad", because more and more people have
international experience, and that's the most important thing, not the
passport. Your Chinese nationality will be your loyalty to the nation,
combined with your competency, you will be definitely more successful than
those incompetent ABCs.
Also with US passport, you have to pay tax to the US, which is nuts.
____________________________________________________________________________
____________
If you are competent, if you have oppotunities, seize the oppotunity and
jump in the boat to Asia. The world is changing, and opportunities only go
to people who know the trend and be prepared.
Sorry for English writing. | I*B
发帖数: 151 | 2 你管别人那么多干嘛
think
only
rate
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: I assure you guys, who want to stay in the US for the rest of your life,
: that you will regret in the next 10 or 20 years.
: 1. US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world, and the
: situation is going to worsen, no matter what. US government and its people
: are holding their one-way ticket heading towards a total decline. Just think
: about how to pay off all the money they owe?!
: 2. You may think US salary is among the highest in the world, but it's only
: for now. Think about the inflation rate, don't trust the government's CPI
: number, just compare your spending now with it was 5 years ago. The tax rate
: is going to rise inevitably, to the roof, just in order to deal with the
| h********0
发帖数: 12056 | 3 What a jerk! Who cares PKU or TSU!
The tight control of Central Government is not the solution,
but the problem. | a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 4 Before you tutor us shitizen, you shall first tutor your party mother's
family members, most of whom own one or more foreign passports.
Also, if you understand why you choose to eat even knowing that you'll die
sooner or later, you shall not pretend that you don't understand why people
choose to stay in US.
think
only
rate
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: I assure you guys, who want to stay in the US for the rest of your life,
: that you will regret in the next 10 or 20 years.
: 1. US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world, and the
: situation is going to worsen, no matter what. US government and its people
: are holding their one-way ticket heading towards a total decline. Just think
: about how to pay off all the money they owe?!
: 2. You may think US salary is among the highest in the world, but it's only
: for now. Think about the inflation rate, don't trust the government's CPI
: number, just compare your spending now with it was 5 years ago. The tax rate
: is going to rise inevitably, to the roof, just in order to deal with the
| z***y
发帖数: 13818 | | z*n
发帖数: 2893 | 6 老弟, 这风向也转得快了些吧？
发信人: oyxy (oyxy), 信区: Chemistry
标 题: 现在美国的化工类公司是不是都不办H1B了？
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jun 27 09:25:53 2010, 美东)
最近听了几个开会回来的说，Dow，杜邦，air products这些公司今年都明确不招没绿
卡的外国人了，如果是真的的话，要留在美国不是只有做博后了？ | p*****n
发帖数: 368 | 7 大彻大悟袅
【在 z*n 的大作中提到】
: 老弟, 这风向也转得快了些吧？
: 发信人: oyxy (oyxy), 信区: Chemistry
: 标 题: 现在美国的化工类公司是不是都不办H1B了？
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jun 27 09:25:53 2010, 美东)
: 最近听了几个开会回来的说，Dow，杜邦，air products这些公司今年都明确不招没绿
: 卡的外国人了，如果是真的的话，要留在美国不是只有做博后了？
| M*****0
发帖数: 1061 | 8 你可以立即回中国呀， 没人拦你。
别人的事你就别蛋操心了。
think
only
rate
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: I assure you guys, who want to stay in the US for the rest of your life,
: that you will regret in the next 10 or 20 years.
: 1. US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world, and the
: situation is going to worsen, no matter what. US government and its people
: are holding their one-way ticket heading towards a total decline. Just think
: about how to pay off all the money they owe?!
: 2. You may think US salary is among the highest in the world, but it's only
: for now. Think about the inflation rate, don't trust the government's CPI
: number, just compare your spending now with it was 5 years ago. The tax rate
: is going to rise inevitably, to the roof, just in order to deal with the
| l*y
发帖数: 21010 | 9 说明认识进步了
【在 z*n 的大作中提到】
: 老弟, 这风向也转得快了些吧？
: 发信人: oyxy (oyxy), 信区: Chemistry
: 标 题: 现在美国的化工类公司是不是都不办H1B了？
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jun 27 09:25:53 2010, 美东)
: 最近听了几个开会回来的说，Dow，杜邦，air products这些公司今年都明确不招没绿
: 卡的外国人了，如果是真的的话，要留在美国不是只有做博后了？
| a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 10 还有这家伙自己的说明档
“中国已经没有文化了,只有娱乐中国已经没有人才了,只有政客和为政客抬轿子的人中
国已经没有诗人了,有良心的诗人都自杀了 ”
他自己假装不记得了为什么很多人不要选择回到一个没有文化没有人才没有诗人的地方。
【在 z*n 的大作中提到】
: 老弟, 这风向也转得快了些吧？
: 发信人: oyxy (oyxy), 信区: Chemistry
: 标 题: 现在美国的化工类公司是不是都不办H1B了？
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jun 27 09:25:53 2010, 美东)
: 最近听了几个开会回来的说，Dow，杜邦，air products这些公司今年都明确不招没绿
: 卡的外国人了，如果是真的的话，要留在美国不是只有做博后了？
| | | z*n
发帖数: 2893 | 11 有一种人总希望和自己想得不一样的人倒霉...
这样的loser其实还是留在美国祸害更好些.
方。
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: 还有这家伙自己的说明档
: “中国已经没有文化了,只有娱乐中国已经没有人才了,只有政客和为政客抬轿子的人中
: 国已经没有诗人了,有良心的诗人都自杀了 ”
: 他自己假装不记得了为什么很多人不要选择回到一个没有文化没有人才没有诗人的地方。
| o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 12 yes!
【在 p*****n 的大作中提到】
: 大彻大悟袅
| k****a
发帖数: 7077 | 13 你个傻怎么不应景回去。不要给个假惺惺的自己没本事的装逼理由。
【在 z***y 的大作中提到】
: 写的很好,很有说服力.
: 应该在龟板长期置顶
| k****a
发帖数: 7077 | 14 更象是拿不到H1B后的A Q意淫.
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: yes!
| l*y
发帖数: 21010 | 15 跟lz相比你很aq
【在 k****a 的大作中提到】
: 更象是拿不到H1B后的A Q意淫.
| z***y
发帖数: 13818 | 16 我老一片良言，你只当坏话。
我不是不想归，是归不了。海龟不是人人可以当的。
不过你如果合格，真的希望你赶紧海龟。
【在 k****a 的大作中提到】
: 你个傻怎么不应景回去。不要给个假惺惺的自己没本事的装逼理由。
| t***o
发帖数: 19256 | | z***y
发帖数: 13818 | 18 俺看你才YY
【在 k****a 的大作中提到】
: 更象是拿不到H1B后的A Q意淫.
| a***s
发帖数: 5417 | 19 万恶的美帝没有限制你出境啊。中帝也没有限制你入境啊。
单程机票我隐约记得很多人愿意赞助你的。
【在 z***y 的大作中提到】
: 我老一片良言，你只当坏话。
: 我不是不想归，是归不了。海龟不是人人可以当的。
: 不过你如果合格，真的希望你赶紧海龟。
| o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 20 hehe, you can say whatever you want, I don't care
【在 k****a 的大作中提到】
: 更象是拿不到H1B后的A Q意淫.
| | | z***y
发帖数: 13818 | 21 我老早说过，海龟的门槛不是机票，而是冒险精神和进取心。
大多数人缺乏这个。
【在 a***s 的大作中提到】
: 万恶的美帝没有限制你出境啊。中帝也没有限制你入境啊。
: 单程机票我隐约记得很多人愿意赞助你的。
| a****k
发帖数: 399 | 22 你当然不在乎啦，在亚洲金融界打猎，住着新加坡的豪宅，子女说中文，当然可以唱衰
米国了。米国屁民的死活干你鸟事。
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: hehe, you can say whatever you want, I don't care
| a****k
发帖数: 399 | 23 没有冒险精神和进取心，你在海龟版混不是自取其辱么？
【在 z***y 的大作中提到】
: 我老早说过，海龟的门槛不是机票，而是冒险精神和进取心。
: 大多数人缺乏这个。
| o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 24 Adventure is not character of most people on the earth, there is no question
about that. But as you know, the world is moved by those adventurists.
Moreover China is our hometown, we speak Chinese, our parents are there. At
least the risk is much smaller than those Chinese who came for gold rush 150
years ago.
【在 z***y 的大作中提到】
: 我老早说过，海龟的门槛不是机票，而是冒险精神和进取心。
: 大多数人缺乏这个。
| z*n
发帖数: 2893 | 25
question
At
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
这个好象不是中文...
连H1B都搞不定, 这生存能力有问题哈. 你现在的关键问题恐怕是怎么想想自己能做些
什么充实自己, 做出些样子再指点江山, 预测未来不迟.
150
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: Adventure is not character of most people on the earth, there is no question
: about that. But as you know, the world is moved by those adventurists.
: Moreover China is our hometown, we speak Chinese, our parents are there. At
: least the risk is much smaller than those Chinese who came for gold rush 150
: years ago.
| z***y
发帖数: 13818 | 26 所以我老不容易啊..
真的是舍身劝归啊。..
【在 a****k 的大作中提到】
: 没有冒险精神和进取心，你在海龟版混不是自取其辱么？
| M******y
发帖数: 225 | 27 有道理
But Chinese soceity has a lot of problems too...
You should mention that to make ur arguments stronger.
At the end of the day,
decision is based on various factors, individual concerns. | o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 28 Of course, there are lots of problems in China, there will be setbacks in
China, there might be hard landing and burst of property bubble. But those
will not end China's story, in the long term, China is still going up, and
nothing goes straight up.
There are many factors to consider, for example, if you worry about
pollution in China, then you can consider Singapore or Japan.
【在 M******y 的大作中提到】
: 有道理
: But Chinese soceity has a lot of problems too...
: You should mention that to make ur arguments stronger.
: At the end of the day,
: decision is based on various factors, individual concerns.
| f****e
发帖数: 24964 | 29 都舍过身了啊，哪个海龟中招了？
【在 z***y 的大作中提到】
: 所以我老不容易啊..
: 真的是舍身劝归啊。..
| t****1
发帖数: 827 | 30 留在美国的好处是可以象你一样拽英文啊。你要是回了中国，还在BBS上拽英文，那不
是找抽吗？
think
only
rate
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: I assure you guys, who want to stay in the US for the rest of your life,
: that you will regret in the next 10 or 20 years.
: 1. US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world, and the
: situation is going to worsen, no matter what. US government and its people
: are holding their one-way ticket heading towards a total decline. Just think
: about how to pay off all the money they owe?!
: 2. You may think US salary is among the highest in the world, but it's only
: for now. Think about the inflation rate, don't trust the government's CPI
: number, just compare your spending now with it was 5 years ago. The tax rate
: is going to rise inevitably, to the roof, just in order to deal with the
| | | w****n
发帖数: 407 | 31 转载
美国不可战胜吗？ by 刘军洛 2011.5
美国不可战胜吗？二战中，德国的天才战略家曼施坦因总结得非常清楚：
“胜利的一方，是建立在失败一方的错误之上。”
所以，美国的不可战胜也是建立在——今天我们中国的愚昧与自大身上。
现在，全部中国经济学家告诉我们中国人，美国要崩盘了，美国的债务是高达
65万亿美元，美国的经济规模只有15万亿美元，所以，美国只能是依靠印刷美
元再印刷美元来逃债。
可是，美国现在的金融资产是52万亿美元。如果，未来美国目前1500万人
失业大军开始进入就业市场，那美国的金融资产至少会上升到7O万亿美元。届
时，美国必定是全力推行“强势美元”，这样，美元的借贷成本将控制在2%，
美国债务一年的债务利息将是1.2万亿美元~1.3万亿美元。而美国的金融资产
这个时期增长速度会在10%~15%，因为，1500万人的70%~80%的就业和由此产生
的2%~3%的通货膨胀速度，将是美国地区金融资产的最佳成长环境。
未来30年，美国地区将是全球唯一出现人口新增长1亿人的国家，美国地
区也将成为全球最年轻的地万。管理好美国金融资产让美国金融资产年增长
10%~15%，管理好美元全球融资成本让美元的长期借贷成本控制在2%，那美国
社会未来2年~3年后财富增长减去债务利息成本，年收益会达到6万亿~8万亿美
元规模。对于中国社会流行的美国是全球最大的债务国家看法，在中国社会是
大受欢迎。但是，美国因为债务的庞大而产生了全球最大的金融资产国家，在
中国社会却是“目中无人”。
美国因为庞大的债务，给美国带来了己经垄断全球高端服务业；美国因为
庞大的债务，给美国的跨国公司带来了己经垄断全球的销售权；更重要的是，
美国也因为庞大的债务，给美国带来了全球优秀人才的理想聚集地；还有更重
要的是，美国也因为庞大的债务，给美国带来了全球头号军事国家，并且，这
个头号军事国家现在领先所有对手至少5O年。
当然，按照中国经济学家们给我们中国人灌输的美国必定会，让美元崩盘
来逃掉65万亿美元债务。那我们现在可以计算一下美国如果要逃掉65万亿美元
债务。美国发生逃债，那美国借贷成本必定至少会达到10%，这样，美国一年
的借贷成本将是6万亿美元；那美国金融资产也必然暴跌30%~40%，就是美国市
场财富损失是15万亿~20万亿美元，到时，单单一年的借贷成本将是6万亿美元
，加上金融资产的损失是15万亿~20万亿美元，美国一年逃债的成本是21万亿
~26万亿。请注意美国必须一年内就把债务全部逃掉，如果美国用3年~5年逃债
，那美国借贷成本就要3年乘上6万亿美元或5年乘上6万亿美元。
作为一个帝国，美国如果逃债，那美国经济就必然面对长期结构性高通货
膨胀。
罗马帝国、中国大明朝帝国、俄国沙皇帝国都死亡于——通货膨胀。现在
美国帝国会去主动走上通货膨胀道路，这条人人皆知的死亡吗？
有许多事情就是非常简单的常识，但是，为了常识还有去探讨，这就是我
们中国还有挣扎的乞讨把自己变成——全球化的殖民地。
美国逃债的利息和金融资产成本一年就要高达21万亿~26万亿美元；三年
成本是33万亿~38万亿美元；五年成本是45万亿~50万亿美元。
更不用谈到，美国逃债会立刻引发美国目前的聚集的全球大规模人才向中
国或欧洲转移。这样，美国必然开始丧失垄断全球高端服务业；必然开始丧失
美国跨国公司垄断全球的销售仅；必然开始丧失全球优秀人才的理想聚集地；
必然开始丧失全球头号军事国家。
那么中国也必定在美国逃债下，开始成为垄断全球高端服务业；开始成为
垄断全球的销售权；开始成为全球优秀人才的理想聚集地；开始成为全球头号
军事国家。你说：美国会逃债吗?
更荒唐的是，美国65万亿美元债务大部分是美国养老金机构、美国本土金
融公司和美国本土居民持有。而中国中央银行手上的3万亿美元官万储备，只
相当美国总债务规模5%不到。并且，中国中央银行手上的3万亿美元官方储备
，是没有计算上美国肯德基、美国麦当劳、美国苹果、美国微软、美国通用等
等美国公司在中国的投资和长期在中国的留存利润。
这样，我们就可以回到一个正常话题的谈论，如果，未来美国目前1500
万人开始进入就业市场，那么，美国的金融资产至少会上升到7O万亿美元。届
时，美国必定是全力推行“强势美元”，这样，美元的借贷成本将在2%，美国
债务一年的债务利息将是1.2万亿美元~l.3万亿美元。而美国的金融资产这个
时期增长速度会在10%~15%，因为，1500万人的70%~80%的就业和由此产生的
2%~3%的通货膨胀速度，是美国地区金融资产的最佳成长环境。那么，中国未
来2年~3年，现在恶性的产能过剩问题，到时就是非常好的供给基地。
也就是，美国经济的调整周期结束后的上升周期中，中国经济也会伴随着
同样加入到上升周期。美国经济是个——商人。我们中国人不反对这个说法吧
。美国经济绝不会是——我们中国的好朋友。
现在，我们知道了中国恶性产能时期的开始，同时，我们也知道美国中央
银行和美国财政部自2OO8年10月后，共计买进了美国地区债券近4万亿美元。
这近4万亿美元，大部分被“美元套利交易者”投入到了新兴市场，尤其是大
规模投入到了中国地区。
这样，我们就面对一个简单的经济常识，当美国中央银行或美国财政部买
进美国地区债券时，是等于在释放货币或降低利率，这么2000亿美元债券买进
，就相当于压低利率0.25%，请注意是2000亿美元债券买进等于压低利率0.25%
。那么，这里面必然也产生，届时，美国中央银行或美国财政部卖出手上美国
地区债券时，2000亿美元卖出等于提高利率0.25%。现在，美国10年期国债名
义收益率是3.4%。而美国中央银行+美国财政部手上买进的近4万亿美元债券，
是等于负利率4%，所以，美国10年期国债实质收益率应该是，10年期国债名义
收益率是3.4%加上负利率4%，这样，是等于负0.6%。
现在，我们应该面对一个简单的常识，如果，美国中央银行+美国财政部
开始卖出手上这近4万亿美元债券时，是等于正利率4%。那么，美国的10年期
国债实质收益率应该是，10年期国债名义收益率是3.4%加上正利率4%，这样，
是等于正实质收益率会达到7.4%（届时，美国10年期国债名义收益率是应该上
升一些）。
所以，中国经济是面对美国10年期国债实质收益率从负0.6%，一步到位至
少是7.4%。
很快，购买中国楼市的要跳楼；购买中国股票的要破产；购买黄金和白银
的要跳楼；购买全球基础商品的也要跳楼。那美元会怎么走？
1929年，美国经济拥有当时全球最一流的汽车工业；最一流的钢铁工业；
最一流的化工工业；最一流电子产业；最一流的金融产业等等，不论是制造业
还是服务业，1929年的美国技术是彻彻底底垄断世界。1929年美国汽车的年产
能在500万辆，而整个欧洲的汽车的年产能加起来也不到50万辆，并且，美国
汽车性能和质量要远远超过欧洲汽车。1929年，美国所有产业都是垄断，根本
没有一个海外竞争对手。1929年，美国经济通过长期贸易盈余积累的财富，相
当于同期全球经济购买的近7%。而今天，中国官方外汇储备只是相当于今天全
球经济规模的4%。
1929年，美国经济的产能过剩和大规模海外多元化投资，让当时最强大的
美国经济陷入比英国、法国和加拿大还有困难的局面。2011年，中国经济的产
能加速度过剩和美国中央银行的“美元套利交易者”的全面包围中，中国中央
银行和中国经济学家们是在谈——美元崩盘了，我们中国一定要中国官方外汇
储备3万亿美元加快多元化。
美国应该强大，但是，我们中国本来也应该有能力去对抗，只是，2011年
第四季度的我们现在只有——全面崩溃。 | n****8
发帖数: 1716 | | o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 33 This is nonsense.
美国现在的金融资产是52万亿美元
How do you get this number? Is part of the money from bailout? from printing?
未来美国目前1500万人失业大军开始进入就业市场
How will this happen? The unempoloyment rate will still be high, because
there is less and less manufacturing and other real economy in US.
【在 w****n 的大作中提到】
: 转载
: 美国不可战胜吗？ by 刘军洛 2011.5
: 美国不可战胜吗？二战中，德国的天才战略家曼施坦因总结得非常清楚：
: “胜利的一方，是建立在失败一方的错误之上。”
: 所以，美国的不可战胜也是建立在——今天我们中国的愚昧与自大身上。
: 现在，全部中国经济学家告诉我们中国人，美国要崩盘了，美国的债务是高达
: 65万亿美元，美国的经济规模只有15万亿美元，所以，美国只能是依靠印刷美
: 元再印刷美元来逃债。
: 可是，美国现在的金融资产是52万亿美元。如果，未来美国目前1500万人
: 失业大军开始进入就业市场，那美国的金融资产至少会上升到7O万亿美元。届
| z*n
发帖数: 2893 | 34 老弟, 你就别瞎操心美国的事情了. 这世界上很多人认为不可维持却过得安安稳稳的例
子多了去了, 以前的gcd, 现在的两都房价, 未来的美国经济... 事物有普通人不可知
的一面存在, 在没有全面了解的情况下做任何断言都是扯蛋.
况且你这明显是酸葡萄言论, 一年前还在担心学化学毕业没有公司给H1B, 现在就对美
国未来彻底失望... 你就是一个刚毕业没有任何经历的学生, 从能力上看连搞定一份能
证明你不是被回国的工作都不行, 又有谁会认为你这些所谓的对时局的看法是准确的?
我代表全体男同志给你表个态, 这些不是你应当操心的事.
printing?
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: This is nonsense.
: 美国现在的金融资产是52万亿美元
: How do you get this number? Is part of the money from bailout? from printing?
: 未来美国目前1500万人失业大军开始进入就业市场
: How will this happen? The unempoloyment rate will still be high, because
: there is less and less manufacturing and other real economy in US.
| c*******o
发帖数: 1722 | 35 dude, be nice....
?
【在 z*n 的大作中提到】
: 老弟, 你就别瞎操心美国的事情了. 这世界上很多人认为不可维持却过得安安稳稳的例
: 子多了去了, 以前的gcd, 现在的两都房价, 未来的美国经济... 事物有普通人不可知
: 的一面存在, 在没有全面了解的情况下做任何断言都是扯蛋.
: 况且你这明显是酸葡萄言论, 一年前还在担心学化学毕业没有公司给H1B, 现在就对美
: 国未来彻底失望... 你就是一个刚毕业没有任何经历的学生, 从能力上看连搞定一份能
: 证明你不是被回国的工作都不行, 又有谁会认为你这些所谓的对时局的看法是准确的?
: 我代表全体男同志给你表个态, 这些不是你应当操心的事.
:
: printing?
| b*********k
发帖数: 118 | 36 好久没有看到这么给力的东西了,觉得少了3份背景材料:
1.2010中国赴美留学生人数突破12万,2009约10万.
http://www.jjl.cn/edu/shandong/jujiao/257529.shtml
2.美国移民局在2011年5月23日宣布，截止到5月20日，65000个常规名额已被用掉了
12300个，20000个留给美国硕士或以上的名额已被用掉了8500个。
http://www.mitbbs.com/ym_article/hooyou/31105089.html
3.一般海归没工作经验的薪水基本就在1万以内了.你看一下那些职场节目就知道了.
http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/backhome-salary/538541.html
所以,你也别诅咒美国完蛋,国家兴亡自有规律.如果你能有水平看得懂,天下容身之所大
矣.岂是这般惶惶怨妇? 国内人有多势利? 对于那些既无背景,又无能力的,会给好脸?
好象没有本事的人回国也有好果子吃似的. | l*****o
发帖数: 73 | 37 你真是学化工的? 难道没听说过Shale Gas? 知道这个世界上谁拥有开采的技术吗?
美国的储量至少(我是说至少啊)可以供应100年. 所以你可以放心,至少美国不会面临石
油耗尽,无能源
可用的境地. | o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 38 Don't get me wrong, my argument doesn't contradict with your information.
The communication between China and US is increasing rapidly, the number of
Americans who go to China is also making all time high year by year. So if
you say more Chinese want to go to US, in the meantime, more Americans want
to go to China too.
This means job opportunities in US is still attractive for many foreigners,
but there is nothing surprise about this. The US is not going to collapse
tomorrow, it could be a long time to go, maybe 10 years or even longer.
That's what I said, China wants competent people, not just people who have
foreign degrees. If you are not competent, and there is no good
opportunities for you to make big money in China, you can also choose to
make small money in the US.
I don't curse the US, I am just analyzing the facts. Every country has its
own problems, but as I and a few other people think the problems in US are
much worse than those in China.
【在 b*********k 的大作中提到】
: 好久没有看到这么给力的东西了,觉得少了3份背景材料:
: 1.2010中国赴美留学生人数突破12万,2009约10万.
: http://www.jjl.cn/edu/shandong/jujiao/257529.shtml
: 2.美国移民局在2011年5月23日宣布，截止到5月20日，65000个常规名额已被用掉了
: 12300个，20000个留给美国硕士或以上的名额已被用掉了8500个。
: http://www.mitbbs.com/ym_article/hooyou/31105089.html
: 3.一般海归没工作经验的薪水基本就在1万以内了.你看一下那些职场节目就知道了.
: http://bbs.wenxuecity.com/backhome-salary/538541.html
: 所以,你也别诅咒美国完蛋,国家兴亡自有规律.如果你能有水平看得懂,天下容身之所大
: 矣.岂是这般惶惶怨妇? 国内人有多势利? 对于那些既无背景,又无能力的,会给好脸?
| o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 39 Shale gas is promising, and tar sands is also promsing. Although they are
both feasible technically, both of them are more expensive than crude oil,
and transportation of them is a big problem.
【在 l*****o 的大作中提到】
: 你真是学化工的? 难道没听说过Shale Gas? 知道这个世界上谁拥有开采的技术吗?
: 美国的储量至少(我是说至少啊)可以供应100年. 所以你可以放心,至少美国不会面临石
: 油耗尽,无能源
: 可用的境地.
| r*******g
发帖数: 32828 | 40 如果中国发展了， 美国眼红了，到时候小鹰号进攻中南海怎么办？ | | | o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 41 If that happens, what will they do with Chinese in US?
Die with China, or killed by Americans here?
【在 r*******g 的大作中提到】
: 如果中国发展了， 美国眼红了，到时候小鹰号进攻中南海怎么办？
| t******n
发帖数: 6242 | 42 可以参考珍珠港事件后美国人是怎么对待在珍珠港的日本侨民的
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: If that happens, what will they do with Chinese in US?
: Die with China, or killed by Americans here?
| o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 43 There is just not so much camps to put all Chinese in.
【在 t******n 的大作中提到】
: 可以参考珍珠港事件后美国人是怎么对待在珍珠港的日本侨民的
| r*******g
发帖数: 32828 | 44 你不是在鼓励都回去， 到时候就够了。
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: There is just not so much camps to put all Chinese in.
| o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 45 I encourage people to go where money is, if the US has lots of money, then
stay in the US.
If not, go to Asia, go to China.
【在 r*******g 的大作中提到】
: 你不是在鼓励都回去， 到时候就够了。
| r*******g
发帖数: 32828 | 46 你H1办到没有？ 还是已经在亚洲了？
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: I encourage people to go where money is, if the US has lots of money, then
: stay in the US.
: If not, go to Asia, go to China.
| o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 47 I act in accordance with my words. I welcome you to debate on my arguments,
not my privacy.
【在 r*******g 的大作中提到】
: 你H1办到没有？ 还是已经在亚洲了？
| r*******g
发帖数: 32828 | 48 好吧。 个人的发展， 你说的有道理， 不过， 在国内也要有根基， 不然， 就会在浙
大里面完蛋了。
大局， 如果中国真的发展了， 美国的军舰不是吃素的。
所以， 看看你自己的背景和能力。
,
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: I act in accordance with my words. I welcome you to debate on my arguments,
: not my privacy.
| o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 49 There will be more and more conflicts between China and US, there is no
question about that. If not able to find good jobs in China, at least be
aware that our assets in US is not safe.
Interpersonal relationships is important everywhere, and everybody should
invest in their interpersonal relationships as hard assets, from zero to 100.
【在 r*******g 的大作中提到】
: 好吧。 个人的发展， 你说的有道理， 不过， 在国内也要有根基， 不然， 就会在浙
: 大里面完蛋了。
: 大局， 如果中国真的发展了， 美国的军舰不是吃素的。
: 所以， 看看你自己的背景和能力。
:
: ,
| s*******e
发帖数: 432 | 50 I assure you guys, who want to stay in the US for the rest of your life,
that you will regret in the next 10 or 20 years.
1. US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world, and the
situation is going to worsen, no matter what. US government and its people
are holding their one-way ticket heading towards a total decline. Just think
about how to pay off all the money they owe?!
~~~~~~~~~~
There is a concern on this when the external debt is
over 95% of the GDP. However, 1/3 of the spending is going to military and
another 1/3 is going to social security and medicare. Those spending can be
cut, though a very difficult decision for polictician
2. You may think US salary is among the highest in the world, but it's only
for now. Think about the inflation rate, don't trust the government's CPI
number, just compare your spending now with it was 5 years ago. The tax
rateis going to rise inevitably, to the roof, just in order to deal with the
public debt and maintain all the government spending.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~The price in US is actually quite stable during the last 10
years except for energy related products which is caused by large
consumption increase in China. On the other hand, everybody seem to agree
that inflation in China is high. However, since US has increase money base
almost 3 times since this latest depression. It is reasonable to expect high
inflation after the recovery starts.
3. There will be social unrest among races in the US. The thing to keep all
races peaceful in a framework is just money, if more and more middle class
go to bankrupcy in future, you will see more and more people blame on each
other. One of the main target will be pointed to Chinese when China is
rising and competing more and more. White and Black and Hispanic will all be
hostile to Chinese immigrants who work hardest but have least political
support.
~~~~~~~~~~~agree with this.
4. American life style is not healthy and sustainable. The world is running
out of known reserves of oil at a rate of 6% per year, according to IEA data
. Americans are so dependent on burning fossil fuels. Think about it, what
can fuel American drivers 30 years later? What will happen is that many
small towns isolated in the "big countryside" will distinct, because there
is not enough energy to transport people in and out of there.
~~~~~~~~~~Energy trading is a international business, you do not need to
worry about how much US have. Again, One of the biggest program for China is
the resource per capita is too low.
Alternative energies, such as solar, wind, hydro, nuclear, biofuel, maybe
possible solutions for many countries, such as Japan, Singapore, EU,
Austrilia or China, since their population are concentrated, you can
allocate the energy more efficiently. But not for the US, I assure you, ost
US cities will die out by the end of this century because of lack of energy.
~~~~~~~~~~Those new energy are relative expensive and almost a joke to
replace coal and oil in next 10 years.
5. The US will be revenged by many countries later in this century,
terrorism is not end because of the death of Bin Laden. I assure you that
more and more attack will continue, and the national defense will keep
rising. So be prepare to pay for all that.
Just switch the gear.
6. You should go to the countries and places where money is, they are China,
Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea. China is definitely the most
promising country, and the 21 century will be the century of China. There is
no question about that, although for sure there will be setbacks in China,
such as hand landing, burst of property bubbles, etc.
But in long term, China is going up, burst of real estate bubble in Beijing
will not be the end of Chinese economy. Some people who own several houses
will go bankrupcy, but other people will be able to afford to buy places to
live, and to form new middle class. Some people start over, some people
become richer, as long as the central government still have the control.
If you worry about pollution and food in China, consider places like Japan,
Hong Kong and Singapore, those regions will be more and more integrated into
greater China economy, and always be prepared, and look oppotunities
closely.
7. I urge you not to have US nationality. You may see ABCs in China are in
upper class nowadays, you might think your children with US passport can go
to PKU and TSU with much less excellency. But please always think in long
term, the situation is changing, look at Xiaosong Gao's case. Look at how
many Chinese babies are holding US passports, do you still believe your
children can be qualified to PKU with only a "Pass" grade 10 or 15 years
later?
I assure you China is more and more demanding for competent people, not "
people who have been abroad", because more and more people have
international experience, and that's the most important thing, not the
passport. Your Chinese nationality will be your loyalty to the nation,
combined with your competency, you will be definitely more successful than
those incompetent ABCs.
Also with US passport, you have to pay tax to the US, which is nuts.
____________________________________________________________________________
____________
If you are competent, if you have oppotunities, seize the oppotunity and
jump in the boat to Asia. The world is changing, and opportunities only go
to people who know the trend and be prepared.
Sorry for English writing. | | | o**y
发帖数: 3065 | 51 There is a concern on this when the external debt is
over 95% of the GDP. However, 1/3 of the spending is going to military and
another 1/3 is going to social security and medicare. Those spending can be
cut, though a very difficult decision for polictician
~~~~~~~~~~~Spending cut on national security and medical care is very very
difficult, if any politician wants to do so, he will not be elected. This is
the disadvantage of democracy, nobody wants to be backbones, and everyone
only cares about its election, and how to please its people.
The price in US is actually quite stable during the last 10
years except for energy related products which is caused by large
consumption increase in China. On the other hand, everybody seem to agree
that inflation in China is high. However, since US has increase money base
almost 3 times since this latest depression. It is reasonable to expect high
inflation after the recovery starts.
~~~~~~~~~~~~US actually exports inflation to China, since Chinese yuan is
stick to US dollar, so as US print more dollars, Chinese have to print more
RMB. If one day(maybe not far away), Chinese realized that they should let
RMB float, and be exchangable with other major currencies, the inflation in
China will get down, and the inflation in US will fly.
Those new energy are relative expensive and almost a joke to
replace coal and oil in next 10 years.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~The market share for alternative energies should rise to some
point, but definitely not able to replace coal and oil. Asian and EU
countries definitely stand at better positions compared to the US.
Energy trading is a international business, you do not need to
worry about how much US have. Again, One of the biggest program for China is
the resource per capita is too low.
~~~~~~~~~~~~You are right, but once US dollar is debased to some level, OPEC
might not accept US dollar as the primary currency, thus no matter how many
dollars the Americans have, they will not be able to buy any oil. This is
not impossible to happen. If US economy is in big trouble, the demand for
Chinese goods decrease, the resources demand also decrease, then China will
have less pressure on commodities supply. At the same time, China should try to boom its internal consumption, although it's difficult. | M*****0
发帖数: 1061 | 52 米国是太坏了， 你看把我们的大好青年都迫害成精神病了。
and
be
is
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: There is a concern on this when the external debt is
: over 95% of the GDP. However, 1/3 of the spending is going to military and
: another 1/3 is going to social security and medicare. Those spending can be
: cut, though a very difficult decision for polictician
: ~~~~~~~~~~~Spending cut on national security and medical care is very very
: difficult, if any politician wants to do so, he will not be elected. This is
: the disadvantage of democracy, nobody wants to be backbones, and everyone
: only cares about its election, and how to please its people.
: The price in US is actually quite stable during the last 10
: years except for energy related products which is caused by large
| t********5
发帖数: 8005 | 53 楼主。说句不好听的。
你可真够能装的。而且是墙头草，俩边倒的那种装。
时隔几个月，就能从国军转到共军的那种装。
才几个月就大彻大悟了？看来咱天朝的威力真不是盖的。
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: I assure you guys, who want to stay in the US for the rest of your life,
: that you will regret in the next 10 or 20 years.
: 1. US is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world, and the
: situation is going to worsen, no matter what. US government and its people
: are holding their one-way ticket heading towards a total decline. Just think
: about how to pay off all the money they owe?!
: 2. You may think US salary is among the highest in the world, but it's only
: for now. Think about the inflation rate, don't trust the government's CPI
: number, just compare your spending now with it was 5 years ago. The tax rate
: is going to rise inevitably, to the roof, just in order to deal with the
| l*y
发帖数: 21010 | 54 你这纯粹是扯淡。思想进步快点还不行了？
【在 t********5 的大作中提到】
: 楼主。说句不好听的。
: 你可真够能装的。而且是墙头草，俩边倒的那种装。
: 时隔几个月，就能从国军转到共军的那种装。
: 才几个月就大彻大悟了？看来咱天朝的威力真不是盖的。
| t********5
发帖数: 8005 | 55 思想进步？
我没看错吧。你这词用的太搞笑了。
【在 l*y 的大作中提到】
: 你这纯粹是扯淡。思想进步快点还不行了？
| z***y
发帖数: 13818 | | w**********5
发帖数: 232 | 57 no idea why you are posting in English when it's clearly not your best
working language (or at least I hope, judging from all your grammatical
misfortunes...), but that aside, given all the food and drug safety, air
quality, social stability concerns in China, it's absurd to claim that the "
American life style is not healthy and sustainable". last i checked, China
still topped the chart for the world's most polluted city. America may not
be the gold medalist in the race to clean energy, but rest assured China is
no where near the podium.
it's all about trade-offs, growth vs. volatility, comfort vs. dynamism, 人各
有志，to each his own, 不管别人是选择中国的好脏好乱好好玩，还是美国的好山好
水好无聊，都是有得有失，不欣赏一面之词。 | g********0
发帖数: 6201 | 58 有些人自己倒霉了就希望拉更多的人跟自己一起倒霉以获得心理的平衡。
【在 o**y 的大作中提到】
: hehe, you can say whatever you want, I don't care
| a*****e
发帖数: 2503 | 59 牛人海龟亚跟不上这里唧唧歪歪,不论中美，哪里都舒服，完全看自己喜好
有些人自己找不到工作了给自己在这里立个牌坊
就这么简单
【在 z*n 的大作中提到】
: 老弟, 这风向也转得快了些吧？
: 发信人: oyxy (oyxy), 信区: Chemistry
: 标 题: 现在美国的化工类公司是不是都不办H1B了？
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Jun 27 09:25:53 2010, 美东)
: 最近听了几个开会回来的说，Dow，杜邦，air products这些公司今年都明确不招没绿
: 卡的外国人了，如果是真的的话，要留在美国不是只有做博后了？
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