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Quant版 - 好难的一道概率题
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话题: player话题: raise话题: number话题: fold话题: 200
进入Quant版参与讨论
1 (共1页)
g***e
发帖数: 577
1
Two players play a game. Each player get a random number in [0,1]. Bigger
number wins.
They bet 100 before seeing their own number(200 pot).
After seeing the number, player one can choose to raise to 200 or not.
Player 2 can choose to raise again to 400 or raise to 200 if player one
didnt raise or call or fold.
Then player one can't raise again if player 2 didn't fold.
How would you play the game if you were them?
g***e
发帖数: 577
2
Two players play a game. Each player get a random number in [0,1]. Bigger
number wins.
They bet 100 before seeing their own number(200 pot).
After seeing the number, player one can choose to raise to 200 or not.
Player 2 can choose to raise again to 400 or raise to 200 if player one
didnt raise or call or fold.
Then player one can't raise again if player 2 didn't fold.
How would you play the game if you were them?
m*****n
发帖数: 3575
3
If I were player one, I will fold if my own number is greater than 0.5,
since the number of the opponent has less than 50% chance to outnumber mine.
If the first had fold, the second player knew the other number is greater
than 0.5, so the distribution narrows to (0.5,1], and will refold if the
second number is greater than 0.75, otherwise not.
if had not, the second player folds if his/her number is greater than 0.25.
g***e
发帖数: 577
4
Not sure understand.
If player one fold, player two gets the money.Do you mean raise ?

mine.

【在 m*****n 的大作中提到】
: If I were player one, I will fold if my own number is greater than 0.5,
: since the number of the opponent has less than 50% chance to outnumber mine.
: If the first had fold, the second player knew the other number is greater
: than 0.5, so the distribution narrows to (0.5,1], and will refold if the
: second number is greater than 0.75, otherwise not.
: if had not, the second player folds if his/her number is greater than 0.25.

b*******e
发帖数: 123
5
是game theory问题吧。找几个threshhold来define strategy. 列indifference
equation来解 nash equilibrium
player 1 永远不会主动fold。
player 2存在一个bluff region.不然 1 没有incentive to call with worse hand.
player 2 占优。

【在 g***e 的大作中提到】
: Two players play a game. Each player get a random number in [0,1]. Bigger
: number wins.
: They bet 100 before seeing their own number(200 pot).
: After seeing the number, player one can choose to raise to 200 or not.
: Player 2 can choose to raise again to 400 or raise to 200 if player one
: didnt raise or call or fold.
: Then player one can't raise again if player 2 didn't fold.
: How would you play the game if you were them?

1 (共1页)
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话题: player话题: raise话题: number话题: fold话题: 200