u***r
发帖数: 4825 | 1 https://www.rt.com/op-ed/494839-us-south-china-sea/
America declaring China’s territorial claims illegal is all bark & no bite.
The US is militarily & economically impotent
Scott Ritter
Scott Ritter is a former US Marine Corps intelligence officer. He served in
the Soviet Union as an inspector implementing the INF Treaty, in General
Schwarzkopf’s staff during the Gulf War, and from 1991-1998 as a UN weapons
inspector. Follow him on Twitter @RealScottRitter
15 Jul, 2020
Mike Pompeo’s statement that Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea are
unlawful was seen by some as a dramatic step toward war. But it’s little
more than bluster as the US knows it is not yet capable of taking military
action.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued a statement this week which rejected
– as official US policy – China’s territorial claims in the South China
Sea, saying that there was no legal basis for China’s claims and accusing
China of using intimidatory tactics against littoral states with competing
claims.
“We are making clear,” the statement read, “Beijing’s claims to offshore
resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is
its campaign of bullying to control them. The world will not allow Beijing
to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire.”
Under its self-proclaimed “nine-dash line” policy, China claims about nine
-tenths of the 3.5-million square kilometer South China Sea. In addition to
asserting territorial claims over existing shoals and islands, China has
constructed a series of fortified man-made islands which it has used to
assert its presence in the region. Five other nations – the Philippines,
Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan – dispute China’s claims, and have
filed various legal challenges over the years, some of which have been
recognized as valid under UN arbitration.
Until Pompeo’s statement was issued, the official US policy was one of
neutrality regarding China’s territorial claims. Now the US has lined up
against China in a dramatic manner. The timing of Pompeo’s statement did
not take place in a vacuum.
Less than two weeks ago, the United States Navy undertook a fresh round of
“freedom of navigation” exercises aimed at putting China on notice that
its territorial aspirations in the South China Sea would not go unchallenged
. The deployment of two carrier battle groups was an unprecedented display
of military muscle flexing, remarkable not simply for the size and scope of
the drill, but rather the context in which it was conducted.
Yesterday, the UK, America’s closest ally, said it was intending to station
one of its new aircraft carriers in the region, apparently as a measure to
counter an “increasingly assertive China.”
China has, in recent months, publicly displayed its own military arsenal, in
particular two classes of missiles, known as the DF-21 and DF-26, which
have been given the moniker “carrier killers” for obvious reasons.
The Global Times, an English-language paper published under the auspices of
the Chinese Communist Party, made reference to these missiles in a tweet
published in response to the deployment of the US carriers, noting that “
China has a wide selection of anti-aircraft carrier weapons like DF-21D and
DF-26 “aircraft carrier killer” #missiles. South China Sea is fully within
grasp of the #PLA; any US #aircraftcarrier movement in the region is at the
pleasure of PLA.”
The US Navy’s Chief of Information, Rear Admiral Charlie Brown, sent out a
tweet in response, declaring “And yet, there they are. Two @USNavy aircraft
carriers operating in the international waters of the South China Sea. #
USSNimitz & #USSRonaldReagan are not intimidated #AtOurDiscretion.”
Admiral Brown’s bluster disguises the reality that missiles such as the DF-
21 and DF-26, which are referred to as “anti-access/area denial” weapons (
AA/AD), represent a new face of maritime warfare that makes the US carrier
battle group obsolete.
This is reflected in new guidance issued by the Commandant of the Marine
Corps for the marines to restructure its amphibious strike capability to
reflect this new reality. “Visions of a massed naval armada nine nautical
miles off-shore in the South China Sea preparing to launch the landing force
…are impractical and unreasonable,”General David Berger noted. “We must
accept the realities created by the proliferation of precision long-range
fires, mines, and other smart-weapons, and seek innovative ways to overcome
those threat capabilities.”
The importance of the Commandant’s guidance is that it is based in reality,
not theory – the Marine Corps is currently undergoing a radical
restructuring of its combat organization and capability, shedding so-called
“legacy” capabilities such as heavy armor and military police in favor of
a new “expeditionary” structure which will operate from advance bases in
the Pacific and make use of its own long-range strike capabilities to
disrupt a potential adversary – in this case, China.
While some feverish commentators took Pompeo’s words as setting the legal
foundation for the use of military force against Beijing, the truth is that
neither the Marine Corps nor the US Navy are able to successfully execute a
China-beating military campaign in the South China Sea today – and any such
capability is years away. This is the fallacy of Secretary Pompeo’s
statement – words that cannot be backed up with might are, to be blunt,
meaningless.
Pompeo’s statement did not specify what consequences the US is prepared to
impose in the event China continues its aggressive assertion of its “nine-
dash line” claims, for the simple fact that there are no meaningful
consequences that can be imposed.
Pompeo’s bluster seemed more intent in driving a wedge between China and
its Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) trading partners, many of
whom have territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, than
starting a war.
China has been for years now seeking to strengthen its economic and security
ties with the ASEAN bloc, much to the consternation of the US. Indeed, one
of the major obstacles faced by the US in confronting China in the South
China Sea is the reticence among the very nations Pompeo sought to court in
his statement to alienate relations with China, whose status as the region’
s most economically powerful trading partner most ASEAN nations cannot
ignore.
Here, President Trump’s precipitous decision to withdraw from the Trans-
Pacific Partnership (TPP) in 2018 has come back to haunt US policy makers –
void of any viable US-led economic alternative, the ASEAN nations have no
choice but to gravitate toward China.
By putting down a marker that it views the totality of China’s South China
Sea claims as legally impermissible, the Trump administration is seeking to
influence the diplomatic arena where the various disputes China has with the
South China littoral states will be handled for the foreseeable future.
Other than words, however, the US has limited leverage that it can apply –
freedom of navigation exercises are an irritant to China, but have done
nothing to halt its expansion in the region, and in the aftermath of the
collapse of the TPP, the US has failed to put forward any coherent regional
economic development strategy to counter that of China.
The critical question is to what extent the South China Sea littoral nations
are willing to rally around the new US declaratory policy regarding China’
s ambitions in the South China Sea. Lacking either the military muscle to
compel Chinese change or the economic wherewithal to offer a meaningful
alternative to China’s economic influence, Pompeo’s statement is little
more than empty words masking growing US impotence.
The fact that the sole meaningful response to China’s stance in the South
China Sea being pursued by the US is a radical restructuring of the Marine
Corps solely designed to engage China militarily in the region should be
worrisome to all; by failing to back up strong rhetoric with meaningful
policy options, the US is in danger of backing itself into a corner for
which the only solution will be the military tool offered by the marines.
The entire world should hope and pray that it does not come to that.
The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those
of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT. | l********1
发帖数: 1 | 2 build a wall, have Mexico pay for it
bite.
in
weapons
【在 u***r 的大作中提到】
: https://www.rt.com/op-ed/494839-us-south-china-sea/
: America declaring China’s territorial claims illegal is all bark & no bite.
: The US is militarily & economically impotent
: Scott Ritter
: Scott Ritter is a former US Marine Corps intelligence officer. He served in
: the Soviet Union as an inspector implementing the INF Treaty, in General
: Schwarzkopf’s staff during the Gulf War, and from 1991-1998 as a UN weapons
: inspector. Follow him on Twitter @RealScottRitter
: 15 Jul, 2020
: Mike Pompeo’s statement that Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea are
| u***r
发帖数: 4825 | | m**********s
发帖数: 518 | | D*****0
发帖数: 1143 | 5 火烧连营？
【在 m**********s 的大作中提到】
: 我帝的凉席攻击舰在南海一字排开，土工必跪
| G*F
发帖数: 427 | 6 一会儿排个S, 一会儿排个B
【在 m**********s 的大作中提到】
: 我帝的凉席攻击舰在南海一字排开，土工必跪
| q****5
发帖数: 1660 | 7 而且只能在梦里排，梦吧，梦里啥都有－－ 某网友
【在 G*F 的大作中提到】
: 一会儿排个S, 一会儿排个B
| u***r
发帖数: 4825 | |
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