b********n
发帖数: 38600 | 1 因为开打贸易战，中国不买更多的美债了。于是美债收益率上升，美联储升息，于是美
股下跌。因为利息上升，美企业经营困难，于是裁员。加上关税提高引发成本上升，盈
利下降，于是更多企业亏损倒闭，更多人失业，市场失去信心，从而进入经济衰退。川
普自己是毁掉MAGA的第一推手。 | g******y
发帖数: 1 | 2 因为贸易战，以及大家对今后两年经济不看好，大资金开始从高风险的股市撤离，进入
低风险的债市，使长期利率走低。联储会不断调高短期利率，使收益曲线倒挂，更加让
人恐惧经济发生大问题了。于是股市狂泻，联储会喊话放慢调升利率，稳定人心。反反
复复，零和游戏。 | c********e
发帖数: 4283 | 3 Trump is just the fall guy, the economy is tanking not because of him,
rather it's despite of his MAGA effort.
the surge of US treasury yield is caused by 3 reason: 1) the Fed's shrinking
of its balance sheet, 2) rate hike, and 3) continuing deficit of the
government budget
basically, it's a simple supply and demand at work: US government is rolling
out more and more debt for auction, and with the rate hike, it's more
expensive to service its debt, on top of that Fed is not buying the new debt
. So you have to jack up the yield to attract buyers.
I think we are in a recession already, or at least going to be in a
recession soon. Friday's job number should be ugly, this is the beginning of
the end. We are going to see a 2008 v2.0, just a much bigger collapse.
【在 b********n 的大作中提到】
: 因为开打贸易战，中国不买更多的美债了。于是美债收益率上升，美联储升息，于是美
: 股下跌。因为利息上升，美企业经营困难，于是裁员。加上关税提高引发成本上升，盈
: 利下降，于是更多企业亏损倒闭，更多人失业，市场失去信心，从而进入经济衰退。川
: 普自己是毁掉MAGA的第一推手。
| x**8
发帖数: 1939 | 4 同意会有recession，
但是不会像2008那么惨烈，
十年前那次是有次贷引起的整个金融系统的信用风险，
当年bearstern, leman brother, merrill lynch几大投行在金融衍生品市场上裸奔，
现在基本面并没有那么明显严重的问题，
除非市场彻底对Fed失去信心，或者treaury default，
这基本是不太可能的事情，
这次recession也有经济周期的效应，
所以可以看作正常调整，
并不是每次recession都是2008，
shrinking
rolling
debt
【在 c********e 的大作中提到】
: Trump is just the fall guy, the economy is tanking not because of him,
: rather it's despite of his MAGA effort.
: the surge of US treasury yield is caused by 3 reason: 1) the Fed's shrinking
: of its balance sheet, 2) rate hike, and 3) continuing deficit of the
: government budget
: basically, it's a simple supply and demand at work: US government is rolling
: out more and more debt for auction, and with the rate hike, it's more
: expensive to service its debt, on top of that Fed is not buying the new debt
: . So you have to jack up the yield to attract buyers.
: I think we are in a recession already, or at least going to be in a
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