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发帖数: 38600 | 4 In investing, you can easily be “right” in your predictions but wrong in
your real time investment (results). This is why the “smart money” or
investment professionals often make mistakes and have as a group displayed
poor total returns since the markets peaked this past Jan. 22. Money has
flowed to low cost ETF’s and Index funds as a result.
“Janda says everybody in Washington knows the next big crash is right
around the corner”. Well, yes and no. I agree we are overdue for a whopper
but what do I really know that is of any value? Very little, as it turns out
. The critical missing piece of information is found only in the future:
WHEN will the next bear market start and how low will it go next time?
Nobody has the faintest idea of any pertenant details. So, saying doomsday
is coming soon is not particularly useful information or even original
anymore.
My prediction: China is slowing down, going from a 10 year growth rate of 10
% a year to currently an estimated 6.5% growth rate, which still is beating
the U.S. Economy by quite a few hundred basis points. Both China and the U.S
. have huge debt problems but China does not have the luxury of being the
global reserve currency, so they are being forced to actually deal with
their over-indebtedness while we can continue to talk and “kick the can
down the road” for a little while longer.
Our debt problem today is primarily in the public sector ( sovereign debt )
but not private debt. U.S. Corporations have deleveraged in the past ten
years and are very strong financially. China is being forced to deleverage
and its hurting their relative economic growth rate and therefore global
growth ( which is slowing correspondingly). The smartest thing the United
States government and its respective individual states could do for the next
ten years is deleverage while they still have a chance. Public pensions
need to be reformed. So far, most have not done so. At this point, it does
not look needed change and reforms are going to happen, unfortunately.
So, we will just continue to pile-up more public debt and the interest we
pay on that growing public debt rises with the level of interest rates. This
is the Phantom Menace we all face. According to economist and consultant,
Martin A. Armstrong’s model (Socrates): By about 2032 A.D. China will have
dealt with their government debt problem while we just continued-on,
empowered by the “Swamp” of vested interests, as usual. Things (
infrastructure) will begin to deteriorate, quite literally in the U.S. at
some point in the next ten years. Systems will fail more often, such as
electricity outages.
Our growing pie-in-the-sky alternative energy dependence will eventually
disappoint. By the time we actually get to see reality for what it is, it
will be way too late to turn it around. So, we will just sink as a
reconstituted China rises. Martin says the global financial center will
migrate to China at that time. So, this is our likely future (lot) if
current trends are not changed. So far, no luck. I know I have seen the best
of America in my lifetime. The next generation is going to curse their
forefathers for their stubborn shortsightedness. All civilizations
throughout history have gone down this path. There really is no going back
for any of them or us. That is Life. |
