z****0
发帖数: 3942 | 1 There’s a new national poll that Donald Trump will finally be happy about
By Philip Bump
June 29, 2016 at 9:53 AM
Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump has dipped to 2 points according to
a new surveyreleased by Quinnipiac University —a difference
that's sharply at odds with the 12-point lead Clinton enjoyed inthe most
recent Washington Post/ABC News poll. |
z****0
发帖数: 3942 | 2 Does this suggest that Trump's seen a sudden, dramatic surge in support
since the Post/ABC poll was completed on June 23? Well, no.
With the amount of attention paid to the 2016 presidential race, it's only
natural that we obsess over each new national poll, laying out its entrails
in the hopes of divining the November outcome. For those who've placed a bet
on one of the horses in the contest, there's as much reason to trumpet or
lament a good or bad poll as there is to celebrate a filly's sharp move to
the rail or quick stumble. But polls are photos of a rapidly moving horse
race in progress, meaning that you get more information from photos taken at
multiple angles and multiple points in the proceedings. Which means —
setting aside that exhausted metaphor —that it's more useful to
consider the average than any individual outcome.
RealClearPoliticstracksan average of polls over time. Since the
beginning of April (a randomly selected point), Clinton's almost always been
in the lead, seeing that edge decline after Trump secured the nomination
but widen again after she did the same. |
w****y
发帖数: 2952 | 3 老婊子看得心惊胆跳。民调都是有利于建制派的。伦敦各个金融机构公投前委托专业机
构做的民调都是留欧的。
to
University —�0�2a difference
#65533;2the most
【在 z****0 的大作中提到】
: There’s a new national poll that Donald Trump will finally be happy about
: By Philip Bump
: June 29, 2016 at 9:53 AM
: Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump has dipped to 2 points according to
: a new surveyreleased by Quinnipiac University —a difference
: that's sharply at odds with the 12-point lead Clinton enjoyed inthe most
: recent Washington Post/ABC News poll.
|
S**Y
发帖数: 623 | |
s******r
发帖数: 5309 | 5 Why, there is not a single poll in which Trump wins even by the slightest
margin. The probability that all these polls are wrong is close to zero. |
w****y
发帖数: 2952 | 6 公投前，伦敦各大金融机构都看多pound。这些金融机构都委托了专业中立的民调机构
。一二十年前，台湾各个民调，只要国民党赢的不超过5%，开票结果肯定是民进党赢。
【在 s******r 的大作中提到】
: Why, there is not a single poll in which Trump wins even by the slightest
: margin. The probability that all these polls are wrong is close to zero.
|
s******r
发帖数: 5309 | 7 financial services are not good at political polls.
构。
【在 w****y 的大作中提到】
: 公投前，伦敦各大金融机构都看多pound。这些金融机构都委托了专业中立的民调机构
: 。一二十年前，台湾各个民调，只要国民党赢的不超过5%，开票结果肯定是民进党赢。
|
t**x
发帖数: 20965 | 8 庆祝个鸡八。
媒体都是婊子， 给钱啥数据不能出来？
to
difference
most
【在 z****0 的大作中提到】
: There’s a new national poll that Donald Trump will finally be happy about
: By Philip Bump
: June 29, 2016 at 9:53 AM
: Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump has dipped to 2 points according to
: a new surveyreleased by Quinnipiac University —a difference
: that's sharply at odds with the 12-point lead Clinton enjoyed inthe most
: recent Washington Post/ABC News poll.
|
w****y
发帖数: 2952 | 9 人家又不是自己做的。都是委托专业公司做的。而且不象政党民调，有些是为了催票或
者壮胆。人家是关系到真金白银，不会自己骗自己。
【在 s******r 的大作中提到】
: financial services are not good at political polls.
:
: 构。
|
s******r
发帖数: 5309 | 10 I don't know what kind of organization can be so experienced in this type of
specific referendum. The number they got seem to suggest a toss up. Long on
pound should be accompanied by short on other type of securities, all
financial institutions hedge. The loss should be small for them regardless
of the referendum outcome. The real losers are retirement account holders
who only hold long positions.
【在 w****y 的大作中提到】
: 人家又不是自己做的。都是委托专业公司做的。而且不象政党民调，有些是为了催票或
: 者壮胆。人家是关系到真金白银，不会自己骗自己。
|
z****0
发帖数: 3942 | 11 在美新版，川粉看见个川普领先的民调就欢呼雀跃，看见川普落后民调就骂媒体左臂
作假。
没见过这么幼稚的。
【在 t**x 的大作中提到】
: 庆祝个鸡八。
: 媒体都是婊子， 给钱啥数据不能出来？
:
: to
: difference
: most
|
