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发帖数: 1853 | 1 这才是真正的bearish信号。 跟最近的Baltic Dry Index一起看，recession 离我们不
远了。
Highlights (From Bloomberg)
The factory sector ended 2015 with a giant thud. Durable goods orders fell 5
.1 percent in December vs expectations for a 0.2 percent gain and a low-end
estimate of minus 3.0 percent. Aircraft orders didn't help but they weren't
the whole cause of the problem as ex-transportation orders fell 1.2 percent
vs expectations for no change and a low-end estimate of minus 0.4 percent.
Core capital goods, which exclude defense equipment and also aircraft, are
especially weak, down 4.3 percent following a 1.1 percent decline in
November. Shipments for core capital goods, which are an input into GDP,
slipped 0.2 percent following a downward revised 1.1 percent decline in
November (initially minus 0.4 percent).
Orders for civilian aircraft lead the dismal list, down 29 percent in
December. The other main subcomponent for transportation, motor vehicles,
also fell, down 0.4 percent in a reminder that vehicle sales were slowing at
year end. Capital goods industries show deep declines: machinery down 5.6
percent, computers down 8.7 percent, communications equipment down 21
percent, and fabricated metals down 0.5 percent.
Other readings include a surprising 2.2 percent monthly drop in total
shipments and a 0.5 percent drop in total unfilled orders. All this weakness
isn't a plus for inventories which rose 0.5 percent to lift the inventory-
to-shipments ratio sharply, to 1.69 from 1.64. The rise in inventories poses
a headwind to the sector and will dampen future shipments as well as
employment and is a reminder of the inventory warning in yesterday's FOMC
statement. |
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