u***r
发帖数: 4825 | 1 http://www.economist.com/blogs/analects/2013/12/nelson-mandela-
NELSON MANDELA keenly understood what he called “the possibilities” set
before him as a political defendant in apartheid-era South Africa. As “a
symbol of justice in the court of the oppressor”, he felt himself “the
representative of the great ideals of freedom, fairness and democracy in a
society that dishonoured those virtues”. He has since become a powerful
symbol in other societies which—in their own ways, and to varying degree—
have ”dishonoured those virtues”.
In China some have reacted to his death by wondering whether a “Chinese
Mandela” might not be languishing somewhere in a dingy prison cell. Others
have suggested (in Chinese) that what China now needs is not so much a “
Chinese Mandela”, but rather a “Chinese de Klerk”.
Mr Mandela was a source of inspiration to many Chinese dissidents. Yet
during his decades-long involvement with China, he often found himself
taking positions that surprised and disappointed many of his admirers.
“Mandela was an old friend of the Chinese Communist Party, not a friend of
the Chinese people,” one overseas Chinese human-rights activist says. Upon
meeting him in Oslo in 1991, the activist asked Mr Mandela to speak up for
Chinese dissidents. Mr Mandela explained that while the West ignored him
until his success was all but certain, China’s Communist leaders had
supported him financially and morally from the very beginning. Therefore, he
was not about to work against them.
Except for a single meeting with the Dalai Lama, in South Africa in 1996 (
pictured), Mr Mandela said or did little to upset China. On multiple
occasions since then (including this week’s memorial service for Mr Mandela
), the Dalai Lama sought but failed to receive a visa for a return to South
Africa.
In 2011 he was prevented from attending Archbishop Desmond Tutu’s 80th
birthday celebration, which elicited a fierce tirade from Mr Tutu who
accused South Africa’s government of caving to Chinese pressure. "Many,
many people are appalled in many parts of the world, especially people who
supported us during the struggle," said Mr Tutu. "They are weeping and
saying, 'South Africa? It can't be.'"
South Africa’s current president, Jacob Zuma, has made several visits to
China, focusing each time on trade, and refraining each time from much
public criticism of China’s human-rights record. This has paid off for
South Africa. China is now its largest trading partner. Bilateral trade
volume last year totalled 201 billion rand ($19.4 billion), including 81
billion rand in South African exports to China, an increase from 6.4 billion
rand in 2004.
If Chinese activists have been disappointed by the failure of Mr Mandela (
and some of his African National Congress successors) to stand with them
against oppression, he himself may well have been disappointed to discover
that the attributes that had served him so well at home—his political
imagination, idealism, perseverance and commitment to reconciliation—did
not quite do the trick when it came to diplomacy with China.
Having supported the anti-apartheid movement since the 1950s, China spurned
formal relations with South Africa’s apartheid government. China’s cross-
strait rival, Taiwan, happily stepped into that void in the 1970s, making
South Africa one of the handful of nations officially to recognise it. But
by the 1990s, having moved from prison to the presidency, Mr Mandela wanted
to normalise ties with China. And he wanted to do it in his own imaginative
and idealistic way: under a “dual recognition” policy that would have
allowed South Africa to establish relations with China without severing its
official ties with Taiwan.
China of course would have none of it and by 1998 the diplomatic switch was
done. Taiwan’s embassy in South Africa was closed and Mr Mandela was left
looking somewhat naive for thinking there might have been other "
possibilities". It seems he too could have done with a “Chinese de Klerk”. | g**1
发帖数: 10330 | 2 老将们对曼德拉很失望：
Mr Mandela was a source of inspiration to many Chinese dissidents. Yet
during his decades-long involvement with China, he often found himself
taking positions that surprised and disappointed many of his admirers.
“Mandela was an old friend of the Chinese Communist Party, not a friend of
the Chinese people,” one overseas Chinese human-rights activist says. Upon
meeting him in Oslo in 1991, the activist asked Mr Mandela to speak up for
Chinese dissidents. Mr Mandela explained that while the West ignored him
until his success was all but certain, China’s Communist leaders had
supported him financially and morally from the very beginning. Therefore, he
was not about to work against them. | u***r
发帖数: 4825 | 3 Dalai
Except for a single meeting with the Dalai Lama, in South Africa in 1996 ,
Mr Mandela said or did little to upset China. On multiple
occasions since then (including this week’s memorial service for Mr Mandela
), the Dalai Lama sought but failed to receive a visa for a return to South
Africa. | g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 4 这个没办法.老将的主子一直跟种族隔离政权穿一条裤子.
of
Upon
he
【在 g**1 的大作中提到】
: 老将们对曼德拉很失望：
: Mr Mandela was a source of inspiration to many Chinese dissidents. Yet
: during his decades-long involvement with China, he often found himself
: taking positions that surprised and disappointed many of his admirers.
: “Mandela was an old friend of the Chinese Communist Party, not a friend of
: the Chinese people,” one overseas Chinese human-rights activist says. Upon
: meeting him in Oslo in 1991, the activist asked Mr Mandela to speak up for
: Chinese dissidents. Mr Mandela explained that while the West ignored him
: until his success was all but certain, China’s Communist leaders had
: supported him financially and morally from the very beginning. Therefore, he
| m*****5
发帖数: 23482 | 5 太搞笑了，中国人民的民族解放已经早就完成了，至于各类不爽的人，还真不能用曼德
拉来类比的 | l**s
发帖数: 9490 | | g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 7 灾前灾后人口数字和增长率,难道不是就是说的总人口?
人口增长=出生-死亡.不考虑出生率,不相信公布的死亡率,怎么得出非正常死亡率的数
字来?
【在 l**s 的大作中提到】
: 前面的被版主删了
| l**s
发帖数: 9490 | 8 从1953年中至1955年底，巢县人口年平均增长率为25．6‰ 。以此推及1958年，
巢县人口有56．3万。根据上述记载，以35‰ 的年平均增长率回溯，1961年底有人口
41．9万，3年间净减少人口14．4万。1960年人口出生率只有7．54‰ ，与正常人口
死亡率相等，1959年人口出生率为23．33‰ ，超过正常死亡率约13个千分点，灾前
人口还应增加0．7万，合计减少人口15．1万。
【在 g*q 的大作中提到】
: 灾前灾后人口数字和增长率,难道不是就是说的总人口?
: 人口增长=出生-死亡.不考虑出生率,不相信公布的死亡率,怎么得出非正常死亡率的数
: 字来?
| g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 9 一个县的人口是可以迁移到其它地区的.
【在 l**s 的大作中提到】
: 从1953年中至1955年底，巢县人口年平均增长率为25．6‰ 。以此推及1958年，
: 巢县人口有56．3万。根据上述记载，以35‰ 的年平均增长率回溯，1961年底有人口
: 41．9万，3年间净减少人口14．4万。1960年人口出生率只有7．54‰ ，与正常人口
: 死亡率相等，1959年人口出生率为23．33‰ ，超过正常死亡率约13个千分点，灾前
: 人口还应增加0．7万，合计减少人口15．1万。
| l**s
发帖数: 9490 | 10 问题是，曹树基是一个县一个县加起来，非正常死亡总数三千万
【在 g*q 的大作中提到】
: 一个县的人口是可以迁移到其它地区的.
| g*q
发帖数: 26623 | 11 他把2000多个县的数据全列出来了?包括1949-1967年每年的人口?
何况他自己也搞不清楚那些县志里的人口数据是不是对的.
【在 l**s 的大作中提到】
: 问题是，曹树基是一个县一个县加起来，非正常死亡总数三千万
| l**s
发帖数: 9490 | 12 县累加省，省累加全国
例如前面你说人口迁出的巢县，他的观点是，记录4.2万人迁出不可信
所以我说三千万这个数字是不同人不同资料不同方法的共同结果
一般说来，在外迁人口多的地区，灾后返迁人口也多。1962年巢县净迁入人
口1万，看似这一规律的反映，其实不然。1962年因忠庙乡从合肥市划回巢县，
净增0．7万人①。1963年，巢县净迁出人口0．8万，死亡0．4万，出生2．8万，
用出生人口减去死亡人口和净迁出人口，全县增加1．6万人。巢县人口总数的
增加，正合此数。不幸的是，1964年人口普查数据只有45．7万人，而1963年人
口多达47万，仍然超过1964年，就使人不能不怀疑1963年的人口外迁是《巢湖
市志》作者编造的。1964年的人口普查数据使得数据编造露出了破绽。
【在 g*q 的大作中提到】
: 他把2000多个县的数据全列出来了?包括1949-1967年每年的人口?
: 何况他自己也搞不清楚那些县志里的人口数据是不是对的.
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