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发帖数: 6973 | 1 Today (Aug 24, 2011) Pentagon releases
Annual Report to Congress: Military and security developments involving the
People's Republic of China 2011
http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/2011_CMPR_Final.pdf
(a) Note: The report talks about China's Anti-Satellite Test (ASAT)
superficially, at p 37..
(b) Quote:
"JIN-class (Type 094) SSBNs will eventually carry the JL-2 submarine-
launched ballistic missile with an estimated range of some 7,400 km. The JIN
and the JL-2 will give the PLA Navy its first credible sea-based nuclear
capability. Although DoD initially forecast the JL-2 would reach IOC [
initial operational capability] by 2010, the program has faced repeated
delays. * * * The first of the new JIN-class (Type 094) SSBN appears ready,
but the associated JL-2 SLBM has faced a number of problems and will likely
continue flight tests. The date when the JIN-class SSBN/JL-2 SLBM
combination will be fully operational is uncertain." Pages 3 & 34
"In January 2011, initial images of China’s 5th generation J-20 stealth
fighter were posted on the Internet. Although the appearance of this
prototype underscores the level of PRC investment in advanced defense
systems, the Defense Department does not expect the J-20 to achieve an
effective operational capability prior to 2018. China faces several hurdles
as it moves toward J-20 production, including the mastery of high
performance jet engine production." p 32
"The operational status of China’s single XIA-class ballistic missile
submarine (SSBN) and medium-range JL-1 submarine-launched ballistic missiles
(SLBM) remain questionable." P 34
"Currently, the PRC is increasing its use of Russia’s GLONASS, deploying
its own BeiDou-2 (Compass) system as well as a second independent satellite
system called CAPS, while augmenting these overhead systems with a variety
of ground-based signals. * * * China is replacing [3-satellite experimental]
BeiDou-1 with the much larger BeiDou-2 constellation, intended to
eventually provide a worldwide PNT service, independent of foreign control.
By 2012, the BeiDou 2 constellation is expected to provide regional services
with approximately 10 satellites. The PRC plans to complete the BeiDou-2
system by 2020, with 35 a satellite constellation offering global coverage."
p 36
"Given the fact that Taiwan can be reached by land-based aviation, China’s
aircraft carrier program would offer very limited value in a Taiwan scenario
and would require additional naval resources for protection. However, it
would enable China to extend its naval air capabilities elsewhere." p 38
"Shipbuilding Industry: China operates a vibrant and globally competitive
shipbuilding industry. By some measures, China is the largest shipbuilder in
the world. Shipyard expansion and modernization have increased China’s
shipbuilding capacity and capability, generating benefits for all types of
military projects, including: submarines; surface combatants; naval aviation
, including aircraft carriers; and lift assets. China continues relying on
foreign suppliers for some propulsion units and to a much lesser degree,
fire control systems, cruise missiles, surface-to-air missiles, torpedo
systems, sensors, and other advanced electronics." pp 42-43
"Armament Industry: China’s ground force modernization includes production
of new tanks, armored personnel carriers, and artillery pieces. There have
been advances in almost every area of PLA ground forces with new production
capacity to accommodate surge requests. China’s reliance on foreign
partners to fill gaps in critical technical capabilities could still limit
actual surge output." p 43
"Aviation Industry: * * * However, China’s ability to surge production in
the aircraft industry will be limited by its reliance on foreign sourcing
for aircraft engines and avionics, as well as the lack of skilled personnel
and facilities." p 43
"Status of Aircraft Carrier Developments The PLA Navy has initiated a land-
based program to begin training navy pilots to operate fixed-wing aircraft
from an aircraft carrier. This program will probably be followed in about
three years by full-scale ship-borne training aboard Kuznetsov Hull-2 [the
ex-VARYAG]. * * * In May 2009, Brazilian Defense Minister Nelson Jobim
announced that the Brazilian Navy would provide training to PLA Navy
officers in aircraft carrier operations. However, Brazil’s limited
capabilities in this area and the extensive problems associated with Brazil
’s own carrier program raise some questions as to the implications of the
offer." p 47
"Taiwan has historically relied upon multiple factors to deter PLA
aggression: the PLA’s inability to project sufficient power across the 185
km Taiwan Strait; the Taiwan military’s technological superiority; the
inherent geographic advantages of island defense; and the possibility of U.S
. intervention. China’s increasingly modern weapons and platforms (over a
thousand ballistic missiles, an anti-ship ballistic missile program,
increasingly modern ships and submarines, combat aircraft, and improved
C4ISR capabilities) threaten to negate many of those factors upon which
Taiwan has depended." p 47 |
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