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发帖数: 901 | 1 BEIJING – This weekend's arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Yellow
Sea poses a dilemma for Beijing: Should it protest angrily and aggravate
ties with Washington, or quietly accept the presence of a key symbol of
American military pre-eminence off Chinese shores?
The USS George Washington, accompanied by escort ships, is to take part in
military drills with South Korea following North Korea's shelling of a South
Korean island Tuesday that was one of the most serious confrontations since
the Korean War a half-century ago.
It's a scenario China has sought to prevent. Only four months ago, Chinese
officials and military officers shrilly warned Washington against sending a
carrier into the Yellow Sea for an earlier set of exercises. Some said it
would escalate tensions after the sinking of a South Korean navy ship blamed
on North Korea. Others went further, calling the carrier deployment a
threat to Chinese security.
Beijing believes its objections worked. Although Washington never said why,
no aircraft carrier sailed into the strategic Yellow Sea, which laps at
several Chinese provinces and the Korean peninsula.
This time around, with outrage high over the shelling, the U.S. raising
pressure on China to rein in wayward ally North Korea, and a Chinese-
American summit in the works, the warship is coming, and Beijing is muffling
any criticisms.
"One of the results of North Korea's most recent belligerence has been to
make it more difficult for China to condemn U.S. naval deployments in the
East China Sea," said Michael Richardson, a visiting research fellow at
Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies. "I think China must be
quietly cursing North Korea under their breath."
China's response has so far been limited to expressing mild concern over the
exercises. A Foreign Ministry spokesman on Friday reiterated Beijing's long
-standing insistence that foreign navies obtain its permission before
undertaking military operations inside China's exclusive economic zone,
which extends 230 miles (370 kilometers) from its coast.
It wasn't clear where the drills were being held or if they would cross into
the Chinese zone.
The statement also reiterated calls for calm and restraint but did not
directly mention the Yellow Sea or the planned exercises.
State media have been virtually silent. An editorial in the nationalistic
tabloid Global Times worried that a U.S. carrier would upset the delicate
balance in the Yellow Sea, ignoring the fact that the George Washington has
taken part in drills in those waters numerous times before.
North Korea, by contrast, warned Friday that the U.S.-South Korean military
drills were pushing the peninsula to the "brink of war."
A more passive approach this time helps Beijing raise its credibility with
Washington and trading partner South Korea, and puts North Korea on notice
that its actions are wearing China's patience thin.
"The Chinese government is trying to send Pyongyang a signal that if they
continue to be so provocative, China will just leave the North Koreans to
themselves," said Zhu Feng, director of Peking University's Center for
International and Strategic Studies.
Sending signals is likely to be as far as Beijing goes, however. China fears
that tougher action — say cutting the food and fuel assistance Beijing
supplies — would destabilize the isolated North Korean dictatorship,
possibly leading to its collapse. That could send floods of refugees into
northeastern China and result in a pro-U.S. government taking over in the
North.
"What China should do is make the North Koreans feel that they have got to
stop messing around," Zhu said.
China may also be mindful of its relations with key trading partner Seoul,
strained by Beijing's reluctance to condemn Pyongyang over the March ship
sinking. Raising a clamor over upcoming drills in the wake of a national
tragedy would only further alienate South Korea.
Beijing's mild tone also shows its reluctance to spoil the atmosphere ahead
of renewed exchanges with Washington. President Hu Jintao is scheduled to
make a state visit to Washington in January hosted by President Barack Obama
— replete with a state dinner and other formal trappings that President
George W. Bush never gave the Chinese leader.
Before that Gen. Ma Xiaotian, one of the commanders who objected to the
George Washington's deployment earlier this year, is due in Washington for
defense consultations. Those talks are another step in restoring tattered
defense ties, a key goal of the Obama administration.
Chinese fixations about aircraft carriers verge on the visceral. U.S.
carriers often figure in Chinese media as a symbol of the American
government's ability to project power around the world. The Chinese navy is
building a carrier, and keeping U.S. ones out of China's waters is seen as
rightful deference to its growing power.
The U.S. is worried about a key principle: the U.S. Navy's right to operate
in international waters.
While China doesn't claim sovereignty over the entire Yellow Sea, it has
become assertive about its maritime territorial claims and sensitive to U.S.
Navy operations in surrounding waters. In the South China Sea, which China
claims in its entirety, China has seized foreign fishing boats and harassed
U.S. Navy surveillance ships.
In light of such trends, China's protests of the September drills virtually
compelled the U.S. Navy to send the George Washington this time, said Alan
Romberg of the Stimson Center think tank in Washington, who met with Chinese
military commanders in the summer.
"The People's Liberation Army thinks it achieved an initial victory in
keeping the U.S. from deploying the George Washington in that first exercise
. That guarantees that the George Washington will go there at some point,
probably sooner rather than later," Romberg said in an interview in
September.
Even if China's reticence holds this time, Beijing is not likely to cede the
U.S. Navy carte blanche to range throughout the Yellow Sea.
Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei has stated that China's stance on U.S.
naval action in the Yellow Sea remains unchanged. The politically
influential and increasingly vocal military is also likely to keep the
pressure on the leadership to take a firm stand.
Any affront to Beijing's authority or intrusion into Chinese territorial
waters would inflame the Chinese public and require a government response,
said Fang Xiuyu, an analyst on Korean issues at Fudan University's Institute
of International Studies in Shanghai.
"We hope that the U.S. can exert restraint and not cross that line," Fang
said. | w*********g
发帖数: 30882 | 2 掌握核条件下的战争规律，潜规则演习的美舰队
发信站: BBS (Sat Nov 27 13:31:57 2010, 美东)
在《核乌云笼罩下的台海大国战争游戏规则》里，黄金同2曾经提到核大国的战争存在5
个游戏规则，http://nianpk2005.bokee.com/5277484.html
分别是
第一，在全面战争中，如果一方有核，另一方没有核武，有核一方会毫不犹豫地使用核
武。另一方则只能投降。
第二，在双方都有核武器的情况下，尽管核武力并不平衡，可核力量较大的一方并不会
轻易使用核武。甚至不会轻易使用常规战略轰炸。战争胜负很大程度上取决与战区常规
力量对比。
第三，如果局部战争的双方都有核武器，但只有一方有战术核武，（中方的盟国苏联有
战略核武）没有战术核武的一方在另一方威胁要使用战术核武的情况下只能后退。
第四，核国家之间不但双方都会努力避免动用战略核武器，还会努力避免全面常规战争
。因为谁也没有把握能控制全面常规战争不会升级为核战争。
第五，如果双方都具有全面毁灭对方的核能力，除非面临生死存亡的关键时刻，动用战
略核武是不可能的选择。而在比较严重的时刻动用战术核武是个比较容易的选择，这时
动用战术核武多半不会引爆全面核战争。
参照以上规则，可以说，美中之间爆发核战争的可能性是很小的，因为彼此都有毁灭对
方的核能力，同时也都拥有战术核武器，不光中国会努力避免跟美国的正面冲突，美国
也会尽量避免跟中国的正面冲突。
因此这就引申出了一条潜规则：若一个大国秘密的对另一个大国发动局部突袭，另一个
大国也不好立刻声张出去，只能也找机会秘密的回敬对方。
所以，回到在黄海演习的美韩舰队，中国可以利用好上述规律，潜规则演习的美军舰队
一把。
具体做法是
1，中国先把舰队放到专属经济区前沿美韩要进行演习的附近，并且表示，黄海是中国
的安全区，中国将在这一地区进行核试验（日期就是美韩军演的日期，不怕死就过来）。
%%% 这一条是缓兵之计，给中国留出更多的准备时间%%%
2，要求跟美国就朝韩局势进行和谈。%%%会谈中采取蘑菇战术，拖延时间。%%%
3，宣布跟朝鲜进行联合演习，然后征得朝鲜的同意，通过演习期间的军队调度，把大
量的苏33系列和歼11系列部署到朝鲜南部。
4，通过增兵减灶的办法，表面上每天通过边境飞往朝鲜的飞机和飞回来的一样多，但
是实际上，在朝鲜的飞机是在不断增加的.美国如果发现，就说是对朝鲜进行军事援助。
%%%飞机编队采取极其密集的队形，让美韩无法辨认究竟有多少飞机，摸不清在朝鲜的
飞机数量。%%%
5，把反舰弹道导弹秘密部署到朝鲜。
6，会谈一个月以后，在朝鲜的部署基本完成，然后宣布不接受美韩的所有条件，谈判
破裂。
7，美韩如果继续进行演习，那么就让在朝鲜的歼击机部队和二炮穿上朝鲜的军服，编
入朝鲜军队，以人民军的名义对美军航母进行打击，务必重创或者击沉华盛顿号，而表
面上要做出事先不知情的样子。
8，如果美国事后气急败坏，要对朝鲜宣战，那么中国就要立刻摆出中朝盟友关系，公
开表示对朝鲜宣战，就是对中国宣战。可适当的大幅度抛出在美国的债券，在国内进行
防空和核生化三防演习，摆出认真备战的姿态。
结论：
1，美国人虽然肯定会知道这其实是中国人所为，但是按照第四规则，无法大肆声张，
因为美国民众知道以后肯定是群情激奋，堪比珍珠港事件，这意味着对中国宣战，而这
是美国目前所无法承受的，所以只好另找机会。而其损失是巨大的：各路盟友如果发现
美国居然连个小小的朝鲜都打不过，势必寻求自保，区域化共同安全体系将逐步取代美
国为核心的全球安全体系，美国的霸权将趋于瓦解，美元势必看跌，奥巴马也可能因为
这次失败的军事冒险而无法连任，给后来的美国总统留个警示。
2，对于中国来说，由于美国不敢声张内情，所以中国表面上没有出兵，避免了跟美国
开战，安定的发展局面得以暂时保全，同时实质上却成功挫败了美国的进犯企图，又在
兑现了对盟友的承诺，震慑了周边大小国家，国家威信将进一步提高，人民币国际化路
子更加宽敞；
3，在日韩民众看来，主子的航母居然被又穷又落后的朝鲜打得头破血流，那么他们对
美国的敬畏之心就会减弱许多；
4，日韩精英肯定事后会逐渐知晓内情，那么他们对中国的敬畏就会增加几分，彻底放
弃跟中国正面对抗的企图，同时对美国的敬畏又会减弱几分，更加试图摆脱美国的控制
。以中国为核心的东亚共同体到那个时候将开始逐渐成形。
5，在朝鲜看来，自己的国家得以保全，自己又没有承受什么损失，同时还在国内人民
和国际社会面前狐假虎威了一把，捞足了面子，对中国将更加信任和言听计从。 | x*********g
发帖数: 11508 | 3 Any affront to Beijing's authority or intrusion into Chinese territorial
waters would inflame the Chinese public and require a government response,
said Fang Xiuyu, an analyst on Korean issues at Fudan University's Institute
of International Studies in Shanghai.
"We hope that the U.S. can exert restraint and not cross that line," Fang
said.
美国知不知道北京说的那条线在哪里？ |
|
