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发帖数: 4825 | 1 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020368620457711616
By JEREMY PAGE
YANJI, China—When North Korea closed its frontier with China to visitors
and trade after the death of Kim Jong Il, people here braced for a long wait
frozen.
Within 48 hours, however, many border crossings sprang open again,
underlining the reality facing Mr. Kim's son and successor, Kim Jong Eun:
The impoverished country can ill afford to close itself off for long from
China—which has long been its economic lifeline.
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But the swiftness with which the border was reopened highlighted a more
recent dynamic: A variety of North Korean agencies and individuals have
vested interests in expanding commercial links with China and have become an
interest group among the country's elite, analysts say. They point to such
ties as the strongest impetus for change within the world's most isolated
country.
As the world scrutinizes North Korea for the slightest signal of what lies
ahead, the activity along the 885-mile border with China provides some
telling clues to the politics playing out in Pyongyang.
China's trade with North Korea has more than doubled since 2006, and Beijing
's investment in North Korea and in Chinese border infrastructure has been
rising, too, although official statistics on both are somewhat unreliable,
analysts say. China exports mainly food and oil to North Korea, and is also
the conduit for luxury goods from elsewhere for Pyongyang's elite, while the
North sells commodities such as copper, coal and iron ore to China. By some
estimates, China now accounts for more than 70% of North Korea's foreign
trade, with Russia believed to account for most of the rest.
China has been pouring money into the border area over the past two years in
a bid to encourage North Korea to launch Chinese-style market reforms,
analysts say.
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1223nkborderJP
Reuters
Armed North Korean soldiers walk by the border of China and North Korea on
the banks of Yalu River near the North Korean town of Sinuiju on Thursday.
The impact of those economic ties are evident in the Chinese border town of
Yanji. Older people here remark on the different atmosphere this week
compared with after the death of Kim Il Sung in 1994, when North Korea came
to a standstill as people there were ordered to show "total grief."
"This time, their slogan is 'Turn grief to strength' and they're paying much
more attention to business and the economy," said a veteran official at one
of the biggest Chinese cross-border trade companies. "Stores and businesses
in North Korea have mostly resumed production," said the official, who is
in regular contact with North Korean counterparts.
China's strategy to ramp up commercial links has so far failed to elicit
meaningful reform, and analysts say the new regime will be equally wary of
introducing economic freedoms that could undermine a state policy of "juche"
(self-reliance), and total control over its citizens' lives.
But the expansion of Chinese trade and investment has bound North Korea more
closely to China—its only military ally and main aid donor—and unleashed
economic forces, at least in border areas, that some experts believe could
encourage change over the longer term.
The official at the trading company said the number of North Korean
officials living on the Chinese side had increased significantly in recent
years and border trade is now being conducted by companies set up by a wider
variety of North Korean agencies, including the security forces.
Although these companies still pass most of their revenue to the government,
they can keep a commission of 4%-5%, and staff appear to receive generous
gifts from the growing number of Chinese companies competing for their
business, she said.
She and several other local people also said that many North Korean
officials are now living with their families—a significant change from the
past, when North Koreans posted abroad usually had to leave families behind
to prevent defections.
"That's new," said one long-term foreign resident of the Yanji area, who
declined to be identified. "They seem to be living pretty well, too."
A handful of well-dressed North Korean officials were seen by a reporter
paying their respects to their deceased leader at the Liujing Hotel in Yanji
, a modern high-rise in the city center, outside which several black Audi
sedans with tinted windows were parked. They declined to answer questions.
Analysts caution that the benefits of commercial ties are limited to North
Korea's border areas, and to its elite officials, and there are no signs yet
of them being spread more broadly.
On Friday, North Korea said it would open its border near the South Korean
town of Kaesong, clearing the path for a delegation led by the widow of
former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung and another by the head of
Hyundai Group to visit the North. Kim Dae-jung, who died in 2009, and the
Hyundai conglomerate were key players in the so-called Sunshine Policy years
from 1998 to 2008, during which South Korea attempted to improve relations
with Pyongyang through political engagement and financial support.
Kim Jong Il often appeared to toy with the idea of Chinese-style market
reforms—usually after visiting China—and set up several "special economic
zones" in the border area, but repeatedly balked at introducing the
necessary reforms to allow private enterprise to flourish.
One of the only apparent success stories in the earliest such zone, Rason,
which was established in 1992, is a casino that attracts visitors mainly
from China, where gambling is forbidden.
"It's OK to go over there to gamble, or to buy and sell things," said one 41
-year-old Chinese businessman, who regularly visits Rason. "But if you
invest in anything there, you'll lose it. It's like before China began
reform and opening up."
Another North Korean economic zone, set up at Sinuiju in 2002, ground to a
halt after a Chinese-born Dutch flower tycoon was appointed its governor,
then promptly arrested by authorities in China for corruption before he
could take up his post.
Nonetheless, Beijing has invested heavily on both sides of the border and
has pledged to back a plan to revamp the Rason special economic zone, and to
build a new one on an island near Sinuiju.
Whether these trends continue will depend to a large extent on the balance
of power in Pyongyang, analysts say.
The younger Mr. Kim is too young, and was anointed heir too recently, to
wield the same power as his father. So he is likely to rule as the
figurehead of a collective leadership alongside his aunt's husband and
several powerful generals, analysts say.
The aunt's husband, Jang Song Thaek, is thought by many experts to be an
economic specialist who oversaw the establishment of the special economic
zones on the Chinese border and is responsible for the commercial ties with
China. An early indicator of Mr. Jang's influence could be whether, or how
fast, North Korea resumes talks over that and other ongoing projects.
He accompanied the late North Korean leader on recent trips to China and
attended a ground-breaking ceremony in June for the new special economic
zone on the island of Hwanggumpyong, analysts say.
North Korea has leased China a pier at a port in Rason, and a Chinese
company signed an agreement last year to invest $2 billion in more
infrastructure there. China has also started building a $250 million border
bridge at Dandong, another frontier city. Analysts say Chinese firms have
been negotiating with North Korea on developing its substantial mineral
deposits.
"I think the new leadership [in Pyongyang] will continue along this path
because North Korea has gained such benefits from it," said Yang Xiyu, a
senior fellow at the China Institute of International Studies who has taken
part in nuclear talks with North Korea.
"I don't expect any sudden changes, but I think they understand that they
key for sustainable economic recovery is making use of external markets and
resources."
—Se Young Lee in Seoul
and Kersten Zhang in Beijing contributed to this article. |
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