l*******9
发帖数: 518 | |
n*******9
发帖数: 1017 | |
h*******8
发帖数: 1217 | |
d****n
发帖数: 12461 | |
L*****e
发帖数: 2926 | 5 yes. there is a meeting and news conference at 2PM.
"Short-term will be still low. "
I guess short-term means 15-year fix?
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/09/18/what-to-expect-from-t
By Victoria McGrane and Jon Hilsenrath
The Federal Reserve concludes its policy meeting later today, and it’s a
nail-biter. Fed officials are likely to emphasize they’re moving slowly and
carefully even if they do decide to start pulling back on their signature
bond-buying program, and will also seek to reassure investors that short-
term interest rates will stay low well into the future. But the outcome is
uncertain on several fronts, so here’s a rundown of what to keep an eye on
when the statement comes out at 2 p.m.
Programming notes: The Fed is also releasing at 2 p.m. updated economic
projections that will for the first time show officials’ forecasts for 2016
. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m.
1) To taper or not to taper, that’s the big question. Fed officials will
decide whether to start winding down an $85 billion-a-month bond-buying
program. Many officials were still undecided after seeing the so-so August
jobs report earlier this month. Other economic data have come in pretty
mixed since the Fed’s July meeting. Though the labor market has improved
over the past year, growth is slow and inflation below their 2% objective.
Many analysts predict the Fed will reduce its monthly bond purchases by a
small amount. After months of market volatility reflecting uncertainty about
the program’s fate, officials want to avoid surprises. So they could
decide to follow the market’s lead and pull back a little, though there are
still likely to be people in the room arguing to wait a bit longer for
evidence of a stronger economy.
2) Size and Timing. If Fed officials decide to trim their monthly bond
purchases, they must decide by how much. For Fed officials, it is the
message that matters. Some Fed officials have floated the idea of making a
small reduction — say $10 billion — to signal they are moving tentatively
and cautiously. A reduction of $20 billion would be bigger than many
investors are expecting and a sign the Fed has become slightly more
confident about the economy. Size is one way to signal caution. Timing is
another. The Fed could tip its hand about the sequencing of future
reductions. For instance officials could hint that a quick second reduction
at their late October meeting is unlikely because they want time to assess
the economy’s performance before taking the next step. Terms like “
patience” could be signals that they will move slowly and carefully.
Several officials have used the term lately, and it came up in the minutes
to their last policy meeting: “A few members emphasized the importance of
being patient and evaluating additional information on the economy before
deciding on any changes to the pace of asset purchases.”
3) What to cut? If they shrink their bond buys, Fed officials must decide
whether to reduce purchases of Treasurys, mortgage-backed securities or both
. The Fed is currently buying $45 billion of Treasurys and $40 billion of
mortgage bonds each month. Fed officials didn’t have a set plan going into
the meeting. Some believe research that shows the mortgage-bond purchases do
more to boost the economy by holding down mortgage rates and thus should be
left in place longer, a view that argues for pulling back on Treasurys
first. Another factor that could favor such an approach is the fact mortgage
rates have increased more than a percentage point since May and officials
want to guard against a further rise in rates that could damage the housing
market’s nascent recovery. Other officials don’t have as much faith in the
research and worry about presenting markets with a too-complex exit plan.
The composition of a cut is thus a close call.
4) Adjusting thresholds. Fed officials want to emphasize they’re committed
to keeping short-term interest rates low long after the bond-buying program
ends. One way to do so would be to change the thresholds they’ve used to
describe the conditions that might lead them to start raising rates. The Fed
says it will keep short-term rates near zero at least until the jobless
rate falls to 6.5%, as long as inflation doesn’t rise above 2.5%. The Fed
could add a lower bound to the inflation threshold, saying it won’t raise
rates if inflation falls below a certain level, say 1.5%. That could assuage
concerns among some officials about inflation readings that continue to
come in well below the central bank’s 2% target. Fed officials could also
lower the 6.5% unemployment threshold in an effort to strengthen the message
to markets that they intend to keep rates low for a long time. Creating a
new lower bound on inflation looks like the easier of the two moves.
Changing the number on the unemployment threshold risks sowing confusion or
undermining the credibility of the Fed’s policy message. There’s a third
step the Fed could take: Leave the thresholds in place, but hammer home the
message in the press conference that officials might wait for a while even
after unemployment goes below 6.5% before raising rates, and even when they
start, they expect to move slowly.
5) 2016 comes into view. Pay attention to the Fed’s forecasts for 2016,
including the likely path of interest rates. The 2016 forecasts could show
an economy that looks pretty much back to normal by 2016, but officials are
likely to say short-term rates will still be quite low, well below the 4%
level of short-term rates that the central bank is appropriate in normal
times. Another issue could come up with these economic estimates. This
economy just isn’t producing a lot of growth, even though the unemployment
rate keeps falling. Fed officials might be getting to a point where they
believe the economy’s potential growth rate for the next few years isn’t
as high as they used to think it would be.
Press conference bonus: Given all the drama over who will replace him, and
all the goodbyes from lawmakers, perhaps Mr. Bernanke will finally confirm
that he plans to leave the Fed when his term expires at the end of January.
【在 l*******9 的大作中提到】
: 怎么不变？今天不是开会吗？
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L*****e
发帖数: 2926 | 6 哈 如果只是上午结束 应该是上扬结束
我觉得可以等到明早更明朗的时候
【在 d****n 的大作中提到】
: 下午rate desk休息，想锁的上午锁了。
|
W*****d
发帖数: 4196 | |
k***a
发帖数: 2400 | 8 FED Keeps Assets purchase program steady
lender的price变好了一点。 |
x****m
发帖数: 1084 | |
W*****d
发帖数: 4196 | 10 to what?
【在 x****m 的大作中提到】
: 已经降了
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l*******9
发帖数: 518 | 11 为什么Wells fargo纹丝不动，今天跟昨天一样。
https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/
拿到wells fargo的commitment了，不想换银行,除非利率悬殊。 |
b********2
发帖数: 5191 | 12 不会太悬殊, 最多也就差0.25/0.375, 不过如果算成rebate,可能就差了几千块钱.
【在 l*******9 的大作中提到】
: 为什么Wells fargo纹丝不动，今天跟昨天一样。
: https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/
: 拿到wells fargo的commitment了，不想换银行,除非利率悬殊。
|
L*****e
发帖数: 2926 | 13 that's big deposit. :-)
【在 b********2 的大作中提到】
: 不会太悬殊, 最多也就差0.25/0.375, 不过如果算成rebate,可能就差了几千块钱.
|
x****m
发帖数: 1084 | 14 0.25/0.375的话 15年 400k贷款利息要差 1万多了， :-) |
l*******9
发帖数: 518 | 15 0.25就已经心满意足，0.375就很开心了。啥时能跌？Wells fargo今天一点都没跌。 |
T*********n
发帖数: 804 | 16 同问！另外，如果要换lender有什么其他的大银行可以推荐的吗？
【在 l*******9 的大作中提到】
: 为什么Wells fargo纹丝不动，今天跟昨天一样。
: https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/
: 拿到wells fargo的commitment了，不想换银行,除非利率悬殊。
|
l*******9
发帖数: 518 | 17 一直问Wells fargo loan officer，让等明天。今天终于在刚才降了0.125%,还要0.6个
point,简直等于没降。 |
k**u
发帖数: 96 | 18 数学是语文老师教的吧？
【在 x****m 的大作中提到】
: 0.25/0.375的话 15年 400k贷款利息要差 1万多了， :-)
|
k******6
发帖数: 952 | 19 降0.25%,400k的15年贷款总利息是会少一万左右啊
【在 k**u 的大作中提到】
: 数学是语文老师教的吧？
|
k**u
发帖数: 96 | 20 15年总利息？
【在 k******6 的大作中提到】
: 降0.25%,400k的15年贷款总利息是会少一万左右啊
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k******6
发帖数: 952 | 21 是啊，每月少50左右
【在 k**u 的大作中提到】
: 15年总利息？
|
T*********n
发帖数: 804 | 22 如果还没有锁，只是拿了commitment letter,距离closing还有快2个月，可以换loan
agen吗？感觉Wells Fargo比其他的银行利率要高啊~譬如Suntrust
https://www.suntrustmortgage.com/checkrates.asp
【在 l*******9 的大作中提到】
: 一直问Wells fargo loan officer，让等明天。今天终于在刚才降了0.125%,还要0.6个
: point,简直等于没降。
|
k**u
发帖数: 96 | 23 我以为他说每年
好吧，我语文是数学老师教的
【在 k******6 的大作中提到】
: 是啊，每月少50左右
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l*******9
发帖数: 518 | 24 Suntrust 要绿卡
【在 T*********n 的大作中提到】
: 如果还没有锁，只是拿了commitment letter,距离closing还有快2个月，可以换loan
: agen吗？感觉Wells Fargo比其他的银行利率要高啊~譬如Suntrust
: https://www.suntrustmortgage.com/checkrates.asp
|
