h***b
发帖数: 1233 | 1 Weak US economic data confirmed recovery has slowed down dramatically--
1. GDP growth was @ 1.8% in Q1;
2. ADP private sector job report shows addition of only 38k jobs vs ~200k in
prior months;
3. manufacturing activities report (ISM) declined in May to 53.5% vs 60.4%
in April( < 50% reading indicates contraction), lowest level in 13 month;
4. y'day, consumer confidence reading was 60 vs expectation of 67
5. looking abroad, Chima manufacturing activities fell to the slowest pace
in 9 mo--partly due to gov't intervention, and Australia's Q1 GDP was 1.2%
the largest decline in 20 yrs. though rebound is expected after the massive
flooding;
Some of the above can be contributed to earthquake & tsunami in Japan, flood
in Australia, gov't intervention in China, but all in all, US economy is
growing at a less than robust pace many had expected.
the slew of negative news was too much for the equity mkt to swallow--bad
day for stocks, oil, US$ yet w/ the single largest beneficiary being da
Treasury--rates are near last Nov lows (chart source: Yahoo Finance). good
news for mortgage holders looking to refi... :p
欢迎访问＂言之有屋＂Irvine Mortgage & RE 俱乐部
http://www.mitbbs.com/club_bbsdoc/charles.html | p********n
发帖数: 110 | 2 38k啊才，差不多一个州才700。光曼哈顿那个梅西里一个店工作人员也比这多
in
massive
【在 h***b 的大作中提到】
: Weak US economic data confirmed recovery has slowed down dramatically--
: 1. GDP growth was @ 1.8% in Q1;
: 2. ADP private sector job report shows addition of only 38k jobs vs ~200k in
: prior months;
: 3. manufacturing activities report (ISM) declined in May to 53.5% vs 60.4%
: in April( < 50% reading indicates contraction), lowest level in 13 month;
: 4. y'day, consumer confidence reading was 60 vs expectation of 67
: 5. looking abroad, Chima manufacturing activities fell to the slowest pace
: in 9 mo--partly due to gov't intervention, and Australia's Q1 GDP was 1.2%
: the largest decline in 20 yrs. though rebound is expected after the massive
| h***b
发帖数: 1233 | 3 So much talks on debt ceiling and so much noise on US gov't defaults on its
debt in the past 2 months. what was ignored seems to be the economy...
private sector added 114k jobs in Jul per ADP's report today though headline
news on layoffs are on the rise. among the prominent names incl Borders (
going out of business), Cisco, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Merck, Research in
Motion (Blackberry maker), plus a slew of firms off Wall St. on top Jul
manufacturing index was @ 50.9, barely above the 50 level that indicates
expansion (below signals contraction). other bad news incl consumer
spending down 0.2% in Jun (1st decline in 20 months), Q1 '11 GDP was revised
downward from 1.8% to mere 0.4%--how can the gov't missed so badly?!
as a result, we saw mortgage rates tumbled to lowest level on the yr (30-yr
fixed @ 4.25%) and stocks slid 9 days in a roll--going from ~12800 on the
Dow to ~11800 level. that averages 100 pt a day... sigh!!
Yes, we reached agreement on raising debt ceiling and trillion $ spending
cuts (most will happen > 2014), seems avoided the "inevitable default", more
critically, we were distracted and lost focus on the weakening economy.
(1-yr & 5-yr Charts on 30-yr US Treasury Bond)
欢迎访问＂言之有屋＂Irvine Mortgage & RE 俱乐部
http://www.mitbbs.com/club_bbsdoc/charles.html | g*****k
发帖数: 1669 | 4 不是星期五才出来吗？
in
massive
【在 h***b 的大作中提到】
: Weak US economic data confirmed recovery has slowed down dramatically--
: 1. GDP growth was @ 1.8% in Q1;
: 2. ADP private sector job report shows addition of only 38k jobs vs ~200k in
: prior months;
: 3. manufacturing activities report (ISM) declined in May to 53.5% vs 60.4%
: in April( < 50% reading indicates contraction), lowest level in 13 month;
: 4. y'day, consumer confidence reading was 60 vs expectation of 67
: 5. looking abroad, Chima manufacturing activities fell to the slowest pace
: in 9 mo--partly due to gov't intervention, and Australia's Q1 GDP was 1.2%
: the largest decline in 20 yrs. though rebound is expected after the massive
| h***b
发帖数: 1233 | 5 the Wed prior to every 1st Fri of the month is the ADP (largest HR/payroll
co.) private sector (doesn't acct for gov't agencies) report.
stk mkt experienced panic selling today while US treasury saw influx of
money from nervous investors. slow down in domestic economy couple with
worsening debt crisis in Europe (the latest victim is Italy) proved to be
too much
days ago we were in hot debate over raising debt ceiling and gov't spending
cuts, now we're facing a possible double-dip recession. personally, i
believe the odds are slim. likely outcome may be a pro-longed slow growing
economy.
this proves again gov't intervention is only good in the short term.
remember cash for clunker? rebate on appliance trade-in, loan mod? how about
the infamous $8,000 credit for 1st time home buyer? Should we pass out the
stimulus money to every US resident, we may very well be better off today. i
know i would... :p
【在 g*****k 的大作中提到】
: 不是星期五才出来吗？
:
: in
: massive
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