gr
发帖数: 2958 | 1 除了SP500想找个长期的bond diversify一下。
发现了vanguard有个神奇的 Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund Investor Shares (
VUSTX)
收益率超高
1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year Since Inception 5/19/1986
2.58% 5.85% 9.47% 7.71% 8.07%
但是看google上的价格趋势，目前价格比十年前也就是高了30%，这个10年收益7.7%怎
么来的？ |
N******o
发帖数: 3053 | 2 每个月起码3分的Dividend你没有看到？图表下面一个符号D。
【在 gr 的大作中提到】
: 除了SP500想找个长期的bond diversify一下。
: 发现了vanguard有个神奇的 Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund Investor Shares (
: VUSTX)
: 收益率超高
: 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year Since Inception 5/19/1986
: 2.58% 5.85% 9.47% 7.71% 8.07%
: 但是看google上的价格趋势，目前价格比十年前也就是高了30%，这个10年收益7.7%怎
: 么来的？
|
m*********t
发帖数: 1250 | 3 选择不同的投资标的，你的expected return也应该有所不同~ 如果我选择买bond，我当
然不会expect它的face value或bond fund价格变化太大，而是看重它的Dividend或Yie
ld。
【在 gr 的大作中提到】
: 除了SP500想找个长期的bond diversify一下。
: 发现了vanguard有个神奇的 Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund Investor Shares (
: VUSTX)
: 收益率超高
: 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year 10 Year Since Inception 5/19/1986
: 2.58% 5.85% 9.47% 7.71% 8.07%
: 但是看google上的价格趋势，目前价格比十年前也就是高了30%，这个10年收益7.7%怎
: 么来的？
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 4 Google finance always adjusts prices for splits, but not for dividends. This
is a known issue that they admitted.
You seem to keep coming back and asking about VUSTX or TLT. If it's so
confusing, why not just ask Vanguard? Or, maybe it's wise to just invest in
a target fund already, if your own research isn't going anywhere... |
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 5 People often buy long treasury bonds not really for the dividend/yield, but
for hedging their equity positions. And the price moves can be so big that
you don't care about those dividends.
我当
Yie
【在 m*********t 的大作中提到】
: 选择不同的投资标的，你的expected return也应该有所不同~ 如果我选择买bond，我当
: 然不会expect它的face value或bond fund价格变化太大，而是看重它的Dividend或Yie
: ld。
|
gr
发帖数: 2958 | 6 去年的都买了2045 life，里面基本都是股指啊。
今年不是考虑看看别的么。morning star入门文章有看，觉得股票是最好的。
看到有别人提到这个 bond 很好。
自己也在研究下，来mit问一下 关键问题也算研究吧。
：Google finance always adjusts prices for splits, but not for dividends.
This is a known issue that they admitted.
：You seem to keep coming back and asking about VUSTX or TLT. If it's so
：confusing, why not just ask Vanguard? Or, maybe it's wise to just
invest in a target fund already, if your own research isn't going
anywhere...
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: People often buy long treasury bonds not really for the dividend/yield, but
: for hedging their equity positions. And the price moves can be so big that
: you don't care about those dividends.
:
: 我当
: Yie
|
m*********t
发帖数: 1250 | 7 但是对于lz提到的这个long-term bond fund，average duration是17 years，受inter
est rate波动影响太大~
个人浅见在目前的大概率事件的加息周期，它对stock的hedge有限，如果出现加息节奏
加快，stock跌，这个fund也同时大跌~ 我比较同意主流观点就是可以持有high qualit
y intermediate term的bond作为hedge。
but
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: People often buy long treasury bonds not really for the dividend/yield, but
: for hedging their equity positions. And the price moves can be so big that
: you don't care about those dividends.
:
: 我当
: Yie
|
gr
发帖数: 2958 | 8 比如以下两个？
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index Fund Investor Shares (VBIIX
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury Fund Investor Shares (VFITX)
inter
qualit
【在 m*********t 的大作中提到】
: 但是对于lz提到的这个long-term bond fund，average duration是17 years，受inter
: est rate波动影响太大~
: 个人浅见在目前的大概率事件的加息周期，它对stock的hedge有限，如果出现加息节奏
: 加快，stock跌，这个fund也同时大跌~ 我比较同意主流观点就是可以持有high qualit
: y intermediate term的bond作为hedge。
:
: but
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 9 Yes, interest rate is now so low that it has to start going up at some point
. When that happens, treasury bonds are going to fall like a rock. They have
to... but wait... aren't Japan and Europe already in negative interests
territory? Why are we so sure that US won't follow suit? The whole point of
hedging is you don't really know what will happen. Treasury bonds are so
volatile and could move in the opposite direction vs. stocks (i.e., during
deflation), which makes them a good candidate for hedging. Intermediate term
notes don't do that much. The best they can do is just to smoothen a bit
the blow from stocks. Which way you choose to invest is a personal decision,
and again, no one really knows which way is better. That's why there is a
whole spectrum of investing philosophies from 100% US equity all the time to
something like permanent/all-weather portfolios, and everything in between.
inter
qualit
【在 m*********t 的大作中提到】
: 但是对于lz提到的这个long-term bond fund，average duration是17 years，受inter
: est rate波动影响太大~
: 个人浅见在目前的大概率事件的加息周期，它对stock的hedge有限，如果出现加息节奏
: 加快，stock跌，这个fund也同时大跌~ 我比较同意主流观点就是可以持有high qualit
: y intermediate term的bond作为hedge。
:
: but
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 10 2045 is a fine choice. Not sure why you don't like it. "里面基本都是股指" ..
. "觉得股票是最好的" I'm a bit confused here. You want more stocks or less?
You don't have to go with a target fund according to your age. If you want
more stocks, go with target 2060; or, target 2025 for less stocks. Just two
examples. You can also build your own target fund so that the cost can be
lower.
【在 gr 的大作中提到】
: 去年的都买了2045 life，里面基本都是股指啊。
: 今年不是考虑看看别的么。morning star入门文章有看，觉得股票是最好的。
: 看到有别人提到这个 bond 很好。
: 自己也在研究下，来mit问一下 关键问题也算研究吧。
:
: ：Google finance always adjusts prices for splits, but not for dividends.
: This is a known issue that they admitted.
: ：You seem to keep coming back and asking about VUSTX or TLT. If it's so
: ：confusing, why not just ask Vanguard? Or, maybe it's wise to just
: invest in a target fund already, if your own research isn't going
|
gr
发帖数: 2958 | 11 我的意思是从我以前学习了解的知识来看，30年的远景预期最高回报率最好直接buy
hold股指。
也不是不喜欢这个。
就是慢慢了解的信息多了之后，考虑是不是要做一些hedge什么的，比如说买一些bond
做补充。
正好那天看到有人问，就想顺便了解一下。
..
?
two
【在 w***n 的大作中提到】
: 2045 is a fine choice. Not sure why you don't like it. "里面基本都是股指" ..
: . "觉得股票是最好的" I'm a bit confused here. You want more stocks or less?
: You don't have to go with a target fund according to your age. If you want
: more stocks, go with target 2060; or, target 2025 for less stocks. Just two
: examples. You can also build your own target fund so that the cost can be
: lower.
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 12 If you are convinced that buy-and-hold stock index gives you the best return
over a long period of time, why do you need hedge? Why can't you just
toughen up and sit out any storms along the way and get your best return at
the end? You do realize hedge is not free and is likely going to water down
your return, right?
If you do need hedge, why bond? Why long-term bond specifically? Do you
understand the risk of long-term bonds and will not be selling bonds in
panic? Are you okay with VUSTX not staying 100% treasury, or only
treasurydirect or TLT can satisfy your need?
Not everyone is interested in figuring these out, and they are certainly
more difficult than your initial question in the OP. That's why I believe
for most people target funds are pretty good choices. You're guaranteed to
get the market return, and in the long run, statistically, you're going to
outperform most of people actively managing or doing some tweaking in their
investments. And you get to spend time on something more of fun to you.
bond
【在 gr 的大作中提到】
: 我的意思是从我以前学习了解的知识来看，30年的远景预期最高回报率最好直接buy
: hold股指。
: 也不是不喜欢这个。
: 就是慢慢了解的信息多了之后，考虑是不是要做一些hedge什么的，比如说买一些bond
: 做补充。
: 正好那天看到有人问，就想顺便了解一下。
:
: ..
: ?
: two
|
r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 13 预期回报率最高也意味着potential drawdown 会很厉害，看起来你需要一个balanced
portfolio。 另外， 对长期投资来说，你需要的不是hedge， 而是periodical
rebalancing.
bond
【在 gr 的大作中提到】
: 我的意思是从我以前学习了解的知识来看，30年的远景预期最高回报率最好直接buy
: hold股指。
: 也不是不喜欢这个。
: 就是慢慢了解的信息多了之后，考虑是不是要做一些hedge什么的，比如说买一些bond
: 做补充。
: 正好那天看到有人问，就想顺便了解一下。
:
: ..
: ?
: two
|
