M********r
发帖数: 278 | 1 Why would any mature investor wants to invest in Shanghai A shares? I hope
FTSE and MSCI keep their EM benchmarks as is. I am fine with the index under
-representing China. I am fine with the H shares. If FTSE formally adopts
the new index that includes A share, I will seriously consider reducing my
EM at Vanguard.
"至7月6日晚，停牌的公司已达到了576家，达到两市上市公司总数的四分之一。"
"决定自2015年7月7日起，对中证500指数期货客户日内单方向开仓交易量限制为1200手"
.... and many more |
h****g
发帖数: 259 | 2 FYI, vanguard is adding A share to VWO
under
手"
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: Why would any mature investor wants to invest in Shanghai A shares? I hope
: FTSE and MSCI keep their EM benchmarks as is. I am fine with the index under
: -representing China. I am fine with the H shares. If FTSE formally adopts
: the new index that includes A share, I will seriously consider reducing my
: EM at Vanguard.
: "至7月6日晚，停牌的公司已达到了576家，达到两市上市公司总数的四分之一。"
: "决定自2015年7月7日起，对中证500指数期货客户日内单方向开仓交易量限制为1200手"
: .... and many more
|
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 3 Have they already added A share ? I thought they use the FTSE EM index. and
FTSE is adding A share gradually by intrducing a transitional index first,
whatever that means.
【在 h****g 的大作中提到】
: FYI, vanguard is adding A share to VWO
:
: under
: 手"
|
h****g
发帖数: 259 | 4 Here is the press release. Not sure about the timeline.
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/fund-announcement-062015
and
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: Have they already added A share ? I thought they use the FTSE EM index. and
: FTSE is adding A share gradually by intrducing a transitional index first,
: whatever that means.
|
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 5 谢谢。大家怎么看这事？我是肯定要减少EM，我本来就overweight EM. 这个a share
已经到了滑稽的地步了。
【在 h****g 的大作中提到】
: Here is the press release. Not sure about the timeline.
: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/fund-announcement-062015
:
: and
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 6 I'm never a big fan of EM. To me, emerging market is just a fancy name for
the third world. I'm fine with excluding it altogether from my portfolio.
However, if you are okay with the inclusion of other immature and
manipulative markets, I think it's not a terrible idea to include Shanghai.
After all, it's a huge and growing market, and the way I understand index/
passive investing is that you not only invest on all the good stuffs but
also live with the craps included in the indexes :-). |
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 7 i am not ok with immature and manipulative markets. i am perfectly fine with
the old EEM or VWO that includes only H shares. I dont want more exposure
to China market and definitely dont want more volatility. on the other hand
I agree with the idea that passive investors have to live with all the craps
in the indexes. That's why I am torn. :-( |
E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 8 A mature investor should take this rare opportunity to buy Shanghai index
now and sell when the index doubles. Anyone with a common sense should be
able to see this.
under
手"
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: Why would any mature investor wants to invest in Shanghai A shares? I hope
: FTSE and MSCI keep their EM benchmarks as is. I am fine with the index under
: -representing China. I am fine with the H shares. If FTSE formally adopts
: the new index that includes A share, I will seriously consider reducing my
: EM at Vanguard.
: "至7月6日晚，停牌的公司已达到了576家，达到两市上市公司总数的四分之一。"
: "决定自2015年7月7日起，对中证500指数期货客户日内单方向开仓交易量限制为1200手"
: .... and many more
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 9 你这么情绪化怎么做投资啊？
with
hand
craps
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: i am not ok with immature and manipulative markets. i am perfectly fine with
: the old EEM or VWO that includes only H shares. I dont want more exposure
: to China market and definitely dont want more volatility. on the other hand
: I agree with the idea that passive investors have to live with all the craps
: in the indexes. That's why I am torn. :-(
|
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 10 我还好啦，但这是个很现实的问题，我是被动投资者，我的投资中有一个index etf 或
者index fund, in my case the vanguard emerging market index, 拥有了很多年，
从来没有变过，几乎不关心一时的起伏， 这几年EM一直underperform, 还是一直往里
放钱。但是它的benchmark 最近发生了变化，原来的china exposure在25%左右，全是H
share 或者ADR ， 现在要加入A share, 而且最终的比例会加到近50%。 这就给了被
动投资者一个难题，这已经不是我当初follow的index了， 如果继续保持原状，我整个
portfolio 的risk profile 全变了；如果因此调整holdings, 那我又似乎和被动投资
背道相持。这就是一个被动投资者面临的moral dilemma. :) 当然现实生活中我既不会
那么轴， 也不会那么情绪化， 会慢慢变动的。
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: 你这么情绪化怎么做投资啊？
:
: with
: hand
: craps
|
|
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 11 About the common sense you were referring to, is it common among successful
investors or among average investors?
I thought 尖顶长熊 is a common observation among Chinese market participants.
Anyway, it could work for you this time, and I do hope so.
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: A mature investor should take this rare opportunity to buy Shanghai index
: now and sell when the index doubles. Anyone with a common sense should be
: able to see this.
:
: under
: 手"
|
h****g
发帖数: 259 | 12 I don't think A share is much more risky than Brazil, Russia or other EM
countries. All the record highs in US market also make me nervous. Actually
I find it reassuring to gain in US equity and lose some in EM. This is
exactly how diversification is supposed to work.
是H
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: 我还好啦，但这是个很现实的问题，我是被动投资者，我的投资中有一个index etf 或
: 者index fund, in my case the vanguard emerging market index, 拥有了很多年，
: 从来没有变过，几乎不关心一时的起伏， 这几年EM一直underperform, 还是一直往里
: 放钱。但是它的benchmark 最近发生了变化，原来的china exposure在25%左右，全是H
: share 或者ADR ， 现在要加入A share, 而且最终的比例会加到近50%。 这就给了被
: 动投资者一个难题，这已经不是我当初follow的index了， 如果继续保持原状，我整个
: portfolio 的risk profile 全变了；如果因此调整holdings, 那我又似乎和被动投资
: 背道相持。这就是一个被动投资者面临的moral dilemma. :) 当然现实生活中我既不会
: 那么轴， 也不会那么情绪化， 会慢慢变动的。
|
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 13 Mature investor invests in junk bond, A share is not risky at all.
under
手"
【在 M********r 的大作中提到】
: Why would any mature investor wants to invest in Shanghai A shares? I hope
: FTSE and MSCI keep their EM benchmarks as is. I am fine with the index under
: -representing China. I am fine with the H shares. If FTSE formally adopts
: the new index that includes A share, I will seriously consider reducing my
: EM at Vanguard.
: "至7月6日晚，停牌的公司已达到了576家，达到两市上市公司总数的四分之一。"
: "决定自2015年7月7日起，对中证500指数期货客户日内单方向开仓交易量限制为1200手"
: .... and many more
|
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 14 rare opportunity? index doubles? common sense?
then why it keeps dropping? do you even think before you let your opinion
known?
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: A mature investor should take this rare opportunity to buy Shanghai index
: now and sell when the index doubles. Anyone with a common sense should be
: able to see this.
:
: under
: 手"
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 15 Well, what he said may not come true, but its possibility is definitely
much larger than you thought..
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】
: rare opportunity? index doubles? common sense?
: then why it keeps dropping? do you even think before you let your opinion
: known?
|
w***n
发帖数: 1519 | 16 To be fair, Shanghai index may very well find its support very soon. A 30%
drop is scary, and the government's panicking actions don't help soothing
the sentiment. but in the context of how much and how quickly the index has
risen in the past a year or so, I'd consider this recent drop still a normal
pullback.
It's not a market that everyone can handle though. |
M********r
发帖数: 278 | 17 I honestly don't care whether the Shanghai market has bottomed or not. It's
the level of manipulation that scares me. It's the collective stupidity of
the market participants, regulators and policy makers that scares me. Other
EM market may not be short of manipulations. But what's happening in China
currently is amateurish, childish, comic, 赤裸裸。。 |
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 18 'definitely much larger than'?
Such vocabulary doesn't usually work well on predicting market. if you are
so sure, you would not be here on mitbbs.
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: Well, what he said may not come true, but its possibility is definitely
: much larger than you thought..
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 19 I said "its POSSIBILITY is definitely much larger". Do you have trouble
with statistics?
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】
: 'definitely much larger than'?
: Such vocabulary doesn't usually work well on predicting market. if you are
: so sure, you would not be here on mitbbs.
|
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 20 is 'possibility' a number? how do you know it is "definitely much larger"?
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: I said "its POSSIBILITY is definitely much larger". Do you have trouble
: with statistics?
|
|
|
E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 21 Ask yourself this question: several months ago, if someone told you that A
share can suddenly drop this fast, would you laugh at him? If you were not
able to see such a sudden decline, on what basis you believe the index
cannot double quickly in the future?
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】
: rare opportunity? index doubles? common sense?
: then why it keeps dropping? do you even think before you let your opinion
: known?
|
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 22 Anything can happen in stock market.
Still I will laugh at anyone pretends to know the short-term move.
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: Ask yourself this question: several months ago, if someone told you that A
: share can suddenly drop this fast, would you laugh at him? If you were not
: able to see such a sudden decline, on what basis you believe the index
: cannot double quickly in the future?
|
E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 23 Sure, but remember this. In the stock market, only a small minority knows
what they are doing.
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】
: Anything can happen in stock market.
: Still I will laugh at anyone pretends to know the short-term move.
|
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 24 - even a broken clock is right twice a day
- that 'small minority' probably has better places to hang out than mitbbs
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: Sure, but remember this. In the stock market, only a small minority knows
: what they are doing.
|
r****m
发帖数: 1204 | 25 As an investor, what you should and can do is to diversify your investments.
If emerging markets have low correlations with the main markets you invest,
then it's a good idea to include them. |
g*****g
发帖数: 34805 | 26 我老人家4500进去做牛市回调中枪，接下来3500靠着 美股 A 股双恐慌抢了ASHR做熊市
反弹, 持有
两天 35进43出。
你觉得是垃圾，我觉得是机会，投机不适合所有的人。我不见得是你眼中的 small
minority，但你自己肯定不是。 |
i****x
发帖数: 17565 | 27 听起来相当投机。不是说投机不好，但跟lz的投资顾虑也不矛盾。
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 我老人家4500进去做牛市回调中枪，接下来3500靠着 美股 A 股双恐慌抢了ASHR做熊市
: 反弹, 持有
: 两天 35进43出。
: 你觉得是垃圾，我觉得是机会，投机不适合所有的人。我不见得是你眼中的 small
: minority，但你自己肯定不是。
|
E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 28 现在回过头来看看，是不是我的预言看起来不那么ridiculous了？我认为A share
index会继续牛市冲上6000点的。虽然这个预测可能现在看起来也还是有点滑稽。不过
股市就是这样，等你不觉得滑稽的时候，机会就已经过去了。
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】
: rare opportunity? index doubles? common sense?
: then why it keeps dropping? do you even think before you let your opinion
: known?
|
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 29 所谓预言 要有时效和数字。 否则不能称为预言。
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: 现在回过头来看看，是不是我的预言看起来不那么ridiculous了？我认为A share
: index会继续牛市冲上6000点的。虽然这个预测可能现在看起来也还是有点滑稽。不过
: 股市就是这样，等你不觉得滑稽的时候，机会就已经过去了。
|
E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 30 我只是想说，这才过了不到一个星期，至少大家不恐慌了不是。一个星期以前你看到了
这样的变化吗？
要说上6000点的时间，保守一点，应该在两年之内吧。现在不过是刚刚稳住，这个位置
可能需要折腾很长一段时间的。具体预测是，“从现在开始，两年之内，上证指数触碰
6000点”。这个可以吗？
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】
: 所谓预言 要有时效和数字。 否则不能称为预言。
|
|
|
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 31 从你原话 解读不出你当初也看到了一周后这样的变化。
两年涨50%， 这个是预言， 就是这个几率比较大。几率比较大的预言 惊人效果低些。
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: 我只是想说，这才过了不到一个星期，至少大家不恐慌了不是。一个星期以前你看到了
: 这样的变化吗？
: 要说上6000点的时间，保守一点，应该在两年之内吧。现在不过是刚刚稳住，这个位置
: 可能需要折腾很长一段时间的。具体预测是，“从现在开始，两年之内，上证指数触碰
: 6000点”。这个可以吗？
|
E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 32 Come on, 一星期以前楼主说她不明白谁会去买A share。我只是想说政府救市一定会成
功。这个结论你单看图形曲线是看不出来的。但是退几步看看大的局势，会发现政府救
市成功的可能性很大。同样的大势可以告诉你A股必然上6000点。当然，我不想再做更
深入的解释。
但是，你非要说这个预言没什么了不起，这有点强词夺理。我可以同样预测 “从现在
开始，两年内，SPY ETF不可能触碰319 （213*1.5)”。你是不是也想说这样的预测几
率比较大？你说个类似级别的预测试试？
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】
: 从你原话 解读不出你当初也看到了一周后这样的变化。
: 两年涨50%， 这个是预言， 就是这个几率比较大。几率比较大的预言 惊人效果低些。
|
m*********y
发帖数: 1890 | 33 想扬名立万 就要语不惊人死不休呵
Come on, 一星期以前楼主说她不明白谁会去买A share。我只是想说政府救市一定会成
功。这个结论你单看图形曲线是看不出来的。但是退几步看看大的局势，会发现政府救
市成功的........
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: Come on, 一星期以前楼主说她不明白谁会去买A share。我只是想说政府救市一定会成
: 功。这个结论你单看图形曲线是看不出来的。但是退几步看看大的局势，会发现政府救
: 市成功的可能性很大。同样的大势可以告诉你A股必然上6000点。当然，我不想再做更
: 深入的解释。
: 但是，你非要说这个预言没什么了不起，这有点强词夺理。我可以同样预测 “从现在
: 开始，两年内，SPY ETF不可能触碰319 （213*1.5)”。你是不是也想说这样的预测几
: 率比较大？你说个类似级别的预测试试？
|
E******w
发帖数: 2616 | 34 老大，我炒股的目的是为了赚钱，不是为了扬名立万。
【在 m*********y 的大作中提到】
: 想扬名立万 就要语不惊人死不休呵
:
: Come on, 一星期以前楼主说她不明白谁会去买A share。我只是想说政府救市一定会成
: 功。这个结论你单看图形曲线是看不出来的。但是退几步看看大的局势，会发现政府救
: 市成功的........
|
i******r
发帖数: 1175 | 35 4500進入A股也肯定不是。
【在 g*****g 的大作中提到】
: 我老人家4500进去做牛市回调中枪，接下来3500靠着 美股 A 股双恐慌抢了ASHR做熊市
: 反弹, 持有
: 两天 35进43出。
: 你觉得是垃圾，我觉得是机会，投机不适合所有的人。我不见得是你眼中的 small
: minority，但你自己肯定不是。
|
p*****y
发帖数: 529 | 36 看看professional investor怎么说的。 谦虚点儿没啥不好。
http://m.ft.com/cms/s/0/c0809838-2b0e-11e5-acfb-cbd2e1c81cca.ht
【在 E******w 的大作中提到】
: 我只是想说，这才过了不到一个星期，至少大家不恐慌了不是。一个星期以前你看到了
: 这样的变化吗？
: 要说上6000点的时间，保守一点，应该在两年之内吧。现在不过是刚刚稳住，这个位置
: 可能需要折腾很长一段时间的。具体预测是，“从现在开始，两年之内，上证指数触碰
: 6000点”。这个可以吗？
|
i******r
发帖数: 1175 | |
