S**C
发帖数: 2964 | |
n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 2 Soon will be 1170%. What a deal!
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Yield 117% now, and as high as 139% intraday, wow!
: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB1YR:IND
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p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 3
Deal? Doesn't bond holder usually gets 60cents on the dollar in default?
【在 S**C 的大作中提到】
: Yield 117% now, and as high as 139% intraday, wow!
: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GGGB1YR:IND
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Q*K
发帖数: 3464 | 4 you mean 6 cents?
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
:
: Deal? Doesn't bond holder usually gets 60cents on the dollar in default?
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p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 5 That would be a real deal.
It is sometime very easy to profit from investors' panic. For example,
Argentina defaulted debt was traded as low as 11 cents on the dollar in 2008
, so many institutional investors, including the "vulture funds", made a
killing when 2 years later it was valued at between 48 and 51 cents on the
dollar.
Retail investors are programmed to think default means bond is worthless ...
that is just too naive. No country is dare to completely ignore its debt ..
. except maybe Chairman Mao's China ... if it is hoping to tap the
international market for funding in the future.
【在 Q*K 的大作中提到】
: you mean 6 cents?
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n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 6 This is a risky game. You can be right 10 times but 1 wrong will wipe you
out. Rule of thumb -- only bet other people's money.
2008
..
..
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: That would be a real deal.
: It is sometime very easy to profit from investors' panic. For example,
: Argentina defaulted debt was traded as low as 11 cents on the dollar in 2008
: , so many institutional investors, including the "vulture funds", made a
: killing when 2 years later it was valued at between 48 and 51 cents on the
: dollar.
: Retail investors are programmed to think default means bond is worthless ...
: that is just too naive. No country is dare to completely ignore its debt ..
: . except maybe Chairman Mao's China ... if it is hoping to tap the
: international market for funding in the future.
|
p********r
发帖数: 1980 | 7 Actually, this is one area that a value investor could step in. If one
cannot estimate the value of the net worth at death (bankrupcy), how can one
even estimate the value of the living when future is completely unknown? It
requires many skills and perhaps even a team of lawyers, but I don't think
it is completely speculation. The so-called value investments by guys like
ljiiuan2 in stock board is speculation. One wrong will wipe him out for sure.
【在 n******h 的大作中提到】
: This is a risky game. You can be right 10 times but 1 wrong will wipe you
: out. Rule of thumb -- only bet other people's money.
:
: 2008
: ..
: ..
|
n******h
发帖数: 2482 | 8 The value of Greece bond is, exactly, zero.
one
It
think
sure.
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Actually, this is one area that a value investor could step in. If one
: cannot estimate the value of the net worth at death (bankrupcy), how can one
: even estimate the value of the living when future is completely unknown? It
: requires many skills and perhaps even a team of lawyers, but I don't think
: it is completely speculation. The so-called value investments by guys like
: ljiiuan2 in stock board is speculation. One wrong will wipe him out for sure.
|
s**********d
发帖数: 36899 | 9 你这数学，不能家里管账吧？
【在 n******h 的大作中提到】
: This is a risky game. You can be right 10 times but 1 wrong will wipe you
: out. Rule of thumb -- only bet other people's money.
:
: 2008
: ..
: ..
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 10 Given the small sample size of sovereign defaults, the recovery price is
anyone's guess, unlike in corporate bond default, you at least can estimate
its asset and check its book.
Regarding "vulture funds", while Greece is not a strong contry that she
could be bullied, she is still a NATO member and EU contry. It is very
unlikely that those "vulture funds" can get the US congress to squeeze her.
OTOH, IMO it is very unlikely we can have a eventless orderly Greece default
, somewhere something unexpected can happen, and then some bold/smart
speculators could win big....They could also lose big.
2008
..
..
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: That would be a real deal.
: It is sometime very easy to profit from investors' panic. For example,
: Argentina defaulted debt was traded as low as 11 cents on the dollar in 2008
: , so many institutional investors, including the "vulture funds", made a
: killing when 2 years later it was valued at between 48 and 51 cents on the
: dollar.
: Retail investors are programmed to think default means bond is worthless ...
: that is just too naive. No country is dare to completely ignore its debt ..
: . except maybe Chairman Mao's China ... if it is hoping to tap the
: international market for funding in the future.
|
S**C
发帖数: 2964 | 11 I do not think value investor would be interested. Corporate default is
another matter.
one
It
think
sure.
【在 p********r 的大作中提到】
: Actually, this is one area that a value investor could step in. If one
: cannot estimate the value of the net worth at death (bankrupcy), how can one
: even estimate the value of the living when future is completely unknown? It
: requires many skills and perhaps even a team of lawyers, but I don't think
: it is completely speculation. The so-called value investments by guys like
: ljiiuan2 in stock board is speculation. One wrong will wipe him out for sure.
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