N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 1 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
发信人: NeverLearn (24K Golden Bear), 信区: Stock
标 题: Double dip assured
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 10 01:42:27 2010, 美东) |
j**********e
发帖数: 442 | 2 After watching it, I want to ask Michael:
Michael, haven't you successfully predicted 10 out of the past 8 crises?
Michael, haven't you underestimated the power of the government?
Michael, haven't you realized that Bernanke has learned lessons from Great
Depression? The greatest lesson is:as long as the government jump-starts the
US economy (instead of being a by-stander) and doesn't let it degenerate
into a free fall, the US economy will rebound...
Michael, haven't you underestimated the entrep
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
: 发信人: NeverLearn (24K Golden Bear), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: Double dip assured
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 10 01:42:27 2010, 美东)
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 3 Do you go to bed every night after praying for double dip recession?
It's not that I think the double-dip recession won't happen. In fact, it is
now more likely than ever given that G20 has recently ditched their
collective commitment to Keynesian deficit spending in favor of fiscal
austerity. But I just find that you are so bearish that you only read
bearish news and viewpoints.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
: 发信人: NeverLearn (24K Golden Bear), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: Double dip assured
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 10 01:42:27 2010, 美东)
|
a*********g
发帖数: 8087 | 4 各位英文大牛，有什么英文股票投资论坛可以推荐的么？
人气旺些的
多谢 |
j**********e
发帖数: 442 | 5 Today's Wall Street Journal:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703302604575294980628590138.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_opinion
Don't Believe the Double-Dippers
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: 【 以下文字转载自 Stock 讨论区 】
: 发信人: NeverLearn (24K Golden Bear), 信区: Stock
: 标 题: Double dip assured
: 发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Thu Jun 10 01:42:27 2010, 美东)
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 6
When you put 2 and 2 together, you get 4. You don't need to pray for it
to be 4. It's science. You know it has to be 4.
When you see a nation, after already digging self deeply in debt, going
out for one more desperate wasteful Keynesian Hail Mary spending spree,
you know it has to end up with a collapse / double-dip / depression ...
It's simply science.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Do you go to bed every night after praying for double dip recession?
: It's not that I think the double-dip recession won't happen. In fact, it is
: now more likely than ever given that G20 has recently ditched their
: collective commitment to Keynesian deficit spending in favor of fiscal
: austerity. But I just find that you are so bearish that you only read
: bearish news and viewpoints.
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 7 zerohedge.com
【在 a*********g 的大作中提到】
: 各位英文大牛，有什么英文股票投资论坛可以推荐的么？
: 人气旺些的
: 多谢
|
j**********e
发帖数: 442 | 8 Quick quiz:
Which country prints the world currency today?
Which country has sold most national debt to China?
It's a big ponzi scheme--as long as the world economy keeps going, the US
economy will prosper.Of course, if the world economy collapses, every
country is finished, including the US.We will just migrate to the Mars.
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: zerohedge.com
|
h*******y
发帖数: 864 | 9 Oh, really, you proved it with simple math. What a genius.
Although Adam Smith is one of my favorite economist (for his understanding
about supply/demand, which David Ricardo perfected), I really hate the
simple "doctrine" view inherited from him and David Ricardo: that free
market is always better, or simply the study of micro-economy could make
everlasting principles for macro-economy.
By the end of the day, inflation and Keynesian spending spree is just a re-
distribution of wealth (e.g. from
【在 N********n 的大作中提到】
: zerohedge.com
|
p******h
发帖数: 1783 | 10 好一篇大论。忍不住也想说两句。
我相信完全的自由市场既不是最好的，也是不存在的。正确的政府干预是有好处的。
但政府干预应该是在泡沫产生时抑制泡沫的产生，使经济平稳增长，
而不是单单在泡沫破灭时托住，企图享受泡沫上升时的好处，而不承担泡沫破灭的后果
这样的后果只有两种：延后经济的复苏或者吹出更大的泡沫。
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Oh, really, you proved it with simple math. What a genius.
: Although Adam Smith is one of my favorite economist (for his understanding
: about supply/demand, which David Ricardo perfected), I really hate the
: simple "doctrine" view inherited from him and David Ricardo: that free
: market is always better, or simply the study of micro-economy could make
: everlasting principles for macro-economy.
: By the end of the day, inflation and Keynesian spending spree is just a re-
: distribution of wealth (e.g. from
|
|
|
s********n
发帖数: 1962 | 11 To me, ideally, all government needs to do is to make sure in there market
1. no moral hazard
2. no conflict of interest
But they failed on both.
Government can be never smarter than enterpreneurs. It's neither their job
nor within their capability to be smarter than enterpreneurs. Enterpreneurs
are not perfect by all means, but they are still better than the government.
Think about it -- what kind of persons are in the Congress? They are
politicians who must face election every 4 years and who
【在 p******h 的大作中提到】
: 好一篇大论。忍不住也想说两句。
: 我相信完全的自由市场既不是最好的，也是不存在的。正确的政府干预是有好处的。
: 但政府干预应该是在泡沫产生时抑制泡沫的产生，使经济平稳增长，
: 而不是单单在泡沫破灭时托住，企图享受泡沫上升时的好处，而不承担泡沫破灭的后果
: 这样的后果只有两种：延后经济的复苏或者吹出更大的泡沫。
|
y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 12 政府干预和自由市场，这两者不矛盾。
the government role, as a judge, is to try best to keep the market free.
free means, you are free to succeed and you are free to fail.
其实现在的最大问题不是政府干预市场，现在的最大问题是政府参与市场。
政府一旦参与市场，自由市场一定完蛋。
【在 p******h 的大作中提到】
: 好一篇大论。忍不住也想说两句。
: 我相信完全的自由市场既不是最好的，也是不存在的。正确的政府干预是有好处的。
: 但政府干预应该是在泡沫产生时抑制泡沫的产生，使经济平稳增长，
: 而不是单单在泡沫破灭时托住，企图享受泡沫上升时的好处，而不承担泡沫破灭的后果
: 这样的后果只有两种：延后经济的复苏或者吹出更大的泡沫。
|
j**********e
发帖数: 442 | 13 政府只是暂时参与市场
比如政府已经卖掉了它在很多金融机构的股份了
【在 y****t 的大作中提到】
: 政府干预和自由市场，这两者不矛盾。
: the government role, as a judge, is to try best to keep the market free.
: free means, you are free to succeed and you are free to fail.
: 其实现在的最大问题不是政府干预市场，现在的最大问题是政府参与市场。
: 政府一旦参与市场，自由市场一定完蛋。
|
k***n
发帖数: 3158 | 14 "The best way to get out debt is through growth. So it's not always bad for
governments to take on more debt when the private sector languishes. The
question is whether the stimulus can make the private sector strong enough
when the government inevitably withdraw the supports later"
Yes, it's not always bad for governments to take on more debt...For
government
like Chinese government, who has a huge reserves, or Japanese government,
who
can get huge credits from its rich citizens, it may not be
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Oh, really, you proved it with simple math. What a genius.
: Although Adam Smith is one of my favorite economist (for his understanding
: about supply/demand, which David Ricardo perfected), I really hate the
: simple "doctrine" view inherited from him and David Ricardo: that free
: market is always better, or simply the study of micro-economy could make
: everlasting principles for macro-economy.
: By the end of the day, inflation and Keynesian spending spree is just a re-
: distribution of wealth (e.g. from
|
l**********t
发帖数: 5754 | 15 政府只是暂时参与市场 --- the government has been subsidizing the real estate
markets for decades and now pretty much owns the whole mortgage market. I'm
not taking sides whether this is good or bad, but "free market" is just an
ideology, not reality.
【在 j**********e 的大作中提到】
: 政府只是暂时参与市场
: 比如政府已经卖掉了它在很多金融机构的股份了
|
N********n
发帖数: 8363 | 16
US government borrowed 1.2 trillion in 2009 and generated like what, 3%
GDP growth? That's only 400B dollars. It's horrendous ROI. This year they
are on pace to borrow another 1.3 trillion. Under such kinda management
the only thing they are able to grow is debt, and it will hit a wall.
【在 h*******y 的大作中提到】
: Oh, really, you proved it with simple math. What a genius.
: Although Adam Smith is one of my favorite economist (for his understanding
: about supply/demand, which David Ricardo perfected), I really hate the
: simple "doctrine" view inherited from him and David Ricardo: that free
: market is always better, or simply the study of micro-economy could make
: everlasting principles for macro-economy.
: By the end of the day, inflation and Keynesian spending spree is just a re-
: distribution of wealth (e.g. from
|
y****t
发帖数: 10233 | 17 90%+ home loans are from government.
99%+ student loans are from government
...
i dont see any sign to reverse the trend.
之所以有今天的危机，不是因为华尔街，而是因为政府和美国共产党。
【在 j**********e 的大作中提到】
: 政府只是暂时参与市场
: 比如政府已经卖掉了它在很多金融机构的股份了
|
f*****b
发帖数: 1649 | 18 I think the roll of government is ultimately to do whatever it can to keep
the public confidence of economy. If majority believes the system, give it
time, the system will work, and the country will grow out of trouble. BUT,
if majority starts to loose confidence of the system, gets into defensive
mode, then the economy will fail, together with the government and its
agents.
From this view, problem is that the system is too complicated to be clearly
understood by public, and no one can provide a
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: To me, ideally, all government needs to do is to make sure in there market
: 1. no moral hazard
: 2. no conflict of interest
: But they failed on both.
: Government can be never smarter than enterpreneurs. It's neither their job
: nor within their capability to be smarter than enterpreneurs. Enterpreneurs
: are not perfect by all means, but they are still better than the government.
: Think about it -- what kind of persons are in the Congress? They are
: politicians who must face election every 4 years and who
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 19 政府哪有那么聪明。
【在 p******h 的大作中提到】
: 好一篇大论。忍不住也想说两句。
: 我相信完全的自由市场既不是最好的，也是不存在的。正确的政府干预是有好处的。
: 但政府干预应该是在泡沫产生时抑制泡沫的产生，使经济平稳增长，
: 而不是单单在泡沫破灭时托住，企图享受泡沫上升时的好处，而不承担泡沫破灭的后果
: 这样的后果只有两种：延后经济的复苏或者吹出更大的泡沫。
|
n******n
发帖数: 12088 | 20 government and enterpreneurs are both stupid at the same level.
government bloat housing bubble. but it doesn't blow IT bubble. it's stupid
enterpreneurs bloating it bubble and then ask gov's bailout.
essentially, capitalism system has inherited flaws. so the player's iq
actually doesn't really matter.
Enterpreneurs
government.
about
will
【在 s********n 的大作中提到】
: To me, ideally, all government needs to do is to make sure in there market
: 1. no moral hazard
: 2. no conflict of interest
: But they failed on both.
: Government can be never smarter than enterpreneurs. It's neither their job
: nor within their capability to be smarter than enterpreneurs. Enterpreneurs
: are not perfect by all means, but they are still better than the government.
: Think about it -- what kind of persons are in the Congress? They are
: politicians who must face election every 4 years and who
|
